iPredict Daily Election Update #9

Published: Thu 24 Nov 2011 10:32 AM
iPredict Daily Election Update #9
Main Points
* New Zealand First leader Winston Peters and Mana Party leader Hone Harawira will square off in the second-to-last iPredict programme before the election, tonight at 7.00 pm on Stratos (Sky 89, Freeview 21).
* John Key appears overwhelmingly favoured to remain Prime Minister, but seat-by-seat analysis presents a different picture with both Epsom and Ohariu highly marginal.
* The market continues to lose confidence in Labour's provincial candidates, with National now having a 52% probability of winning Palmerston North, compared with Labour's 48%.
* The voter turnout on Saturday for general electorates is forecast to be 78%, while the voter turnout in Maori electorates is forecast to be 63%.
* If National is elected there is a 16% probability that the Greens will support it or abstain on confidence and supply. If Labour is elected there is a 77% probability that the Greens will support it or abstain on confidence and supply.
* Labour's vote-share is down 0.4 points to 28.1%, while National and Greens' vote-shares are up to 48.0% and 12.1% respectively.
* The heavily traded stock forecasting Winston Peters' chance of returning to Parliament is up to 39% probability, from 37% yesterday. New Zealand First's forecast party vote is 4.2%.
The Parties
National 48.0% +0.5% 61 MPs
Labour 28.1% -0.4% 35 MPs
Greens 12.1% +0.6% 15 MPs
New Zealand First 4.2% -0.1% 0 MPs
Act 2.1% -0.1% 3 MPs
Mana Party 2.0% -0.2% 3 MPs
Conservative 1.7% n/c 0 MPs
Maori Party 1.2% n/c 3 MPs
UnitedFuture 1.1% n/c 1 MP
Stratos: iPredict Election 2011
iPredict is now featured on TV five nights a week, with political insiders sharing their views and tips on a range of iPredict stocks.
Watch iPredict Election 2011, Stratos (Sky 89, Freeview 21) weeknights at 700 pm
Last night's episode can be found at
* Tonight's guests: New Zealand First leader Winston Peters and Mana Party leader Hone Harawira hosted by Martyn "Bomber" Bradbury
Tonight's topics:
1. New Zealand First party vote is predicted to be 4.2%. Would you buy or short?
2. Mana Party's vote-share is predicted to be 2.0%, while Hone's chances of winning Te Tai Tokerau is 95%. Would you buy or short?
3. National Party's vote-share is predicted to be 48.0%. Would you buy or short?
Fine Print
iPredict is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at The company is providing full election coverage this year, with contract bundles for the party vote and for every electorate race in the country now available for trading, along with other contract bundles on a wide range of economic, political and social issues. All of the election 2011 stocks, along with political analysis, can be found at The daily election snapshot replaces the weekly political snapshot for the final two weeks of the election campaign. It is taken at a random time each day to avoid market manipulation by political parties or activists. Today's was taken at 8:41 am.

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