PUBLICITY RELEASE
TUESDAY OCTOBER 21 2008
Waiariki Voters Support Flavell In Maori Television Poll
A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that two thirds of Waiariki voters currently support Te Ururoa
Flavell from the Maori Party as their local Maori MP (66 per cent) – twice as high as Labour candidate Mita Ririnui (29
per cent).
At the party vote level, however, Waiariki voters are almost evenly divided in their support between Labour (40 per
cent) and the Maori Party (38 per cent). National wins just 10 per cent of Maori votes while NZ First (five per cent)
and the Greens (five per cent) attract the same level of party vote.
Of note, however, is that a fifth of this electorate’s sample of 500 Maori voters are still undecided, indicating there
may be some shift in support in the weeks leading up to election day on November 8.
The special analysis of Maori voters’ opinions of political parties, electoral candidates and issues in the Waiariki
electorate was unveiled tonight (Tuesday October 21) on KOWHIRI ’08 – a series of political programmes screening on
Maori Television every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5.
The next political poll will focus on the Maori electorate of Te Tai Hauauru (Wednesday October 22) followed by Te Tai
Tokerau (Tuesday October 28); Te Tai Tonga (Wednesday October 29); Hauraki Waikato (Tuesday November 4); and Ikaroa
Rawhiti (Wednesday November 5).
Prepared by Baseline Consultancy and TNS Direct, the Waiariki research polled 500 voter eligible Maori voters registered
on the Waiairki Maori roll between October 7 to 15 2008. The maximum margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
Helen Clark is this poll’s most preferred politician to be Prime Minister. Just less than a third (31 per cent) of this
study’s voters opted for Clark as PM. Winston Peters was the next most preferred option for Prime Minister (16 per
cent), more than twice as popular as John Key (seven per cent) or Pita Sharples (seven per cent). Again there is a
relatively high proportion (23 per cent) of voters who have no opinion as to which politician would be the best Prime
Minister.
The four issues rated as the most pressing for Maori in Waiariki were: access to quality education for their children
(93 per cent – very important); positive future for their children (91 per cent); a sense that people can feel safe in
their homes or out on the street (87 per cent); and access to affordable quality health services (82 per cent). The
‘second tier”’ issues are: good jobs in my area (76 per cent); fair settlement of Treaty of Waitangi claims (69 per
cent); and access to affordable quality housing in my area (67 per cent).
Apart from the Maori Party’s ability to fairly settle treaty claims (60 per cent), no one party was widely regarding as
being able to attend to these issues on their own. At most, 38 per cent of this sample thought that Labour might do the
best job of providing employment, quality education and health services and housing in their local area. Between a
quarter to a third of Waiariki voters believed that the Maori Party would do a better job on these key issues as well as
providing a positive future for their children (34 per cent).
MMP VOTING – PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?
Political Party
Party Vote %
Labour
40
Maori Party
38
National
10
NZ First
5
Green Party
5
Progressive
-
ACT
0.3
United Future
0.3
Alliance
-
All others
1.8
Base (those with an opinion)
396
Don’t know/undecided
20
Would not vote
0.6
Total Sample
500
PREFERRED ELECTORAL CANDIDATE – WAIARIKI:
Waiariki Candidate
Candidate %
Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party)
66
Mita Ririnui (Labour)
29
Other
5
Base (those with an opinion)
443
None
2
Don’t know
9
Total Sample
500
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:
Main candidates
Total %
Helen Clark
31
Winston Peters
16
John Key
7
Pita Sharples
7
Tariana Turia
4
Tim Barnett
1.2
Jeanette Fitzsimmons
1
Others (less than 0.5%)
11
None
3
Don’t know
20
Base
500
IMPORTANT ISSUES FOR MAORI VOTERS IN WAIARIKI:
Issue
Very important %
Quite important %
Not that important %
Of no importance to me %
Don’t know not applicable %
Quality education for my children
93
4
1
0.6
1.4
Access to affordable quality health services
82
14
3.2
0.8
0.4
Fair settlement of treaty claims
69
20
9
2.4
0.6
Good jobs in my area
76
19
4.4
0.6
0.4
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area
67
22
8
2.2
0.8
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street
87
9
2.6
0.6
0.6
My children will have a positive future
91
6
0.8
1
0.8
Base: 500
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY MAORI VOTERS BELIEVE WOULD DO THE BEST JOB OF DELIVERING ON THESE ISSUES:
Issue
Labour Party
%
Maori Party
%
National Party
%
NZ First
%
Green Party
%
None
%
Don’t know
%
Your children receive quality education
38
30
10
2
2
4
14
You can access affordable quality health services
38
32
8
4
2
4
13
There is fair settlement of treaty claims
23
60
2
2
1
3
8
There are good jobs in my area
38
25
10
3
2
5
17
Access to affordable, quality housing in my area
38
27
7
3
2
6
17
People can feel safe in their homes or out on the street
27
28
18
6
1
5
14
Your children will have a positive future
31
34
9
3
5
4
13
Base: 500
WHICH WAIARIKI CANDIDATE WOULD MAORI VOTERS ASSOCIATE WITH THESE STATEMENTS:
Statements
Te Ururoa Flavell (Maori Party)
Mita Ririnui (Labour)
Other Candidates
%
None
%
D/K
%
Can be trusted
57
24
5
8
18
Will deliver on promises
53
24
5
7
20
Knows the needs of the local people
66
30
5
2
12
Is experienced in politics
46
38
5
3
20
Is a capable leader
61
25
3
5
16
Would be good in a crisis
55
25
4
4
21
Has lots of personality
60
21
3
3
18
Base :500
Maori Television’s coverage of the 2008 General Election – KOWHIRI ’08 – is co-hosted by Native Affairs presenter Julian
Wilcox and Te Kaea political reporter Tina Wickliffe and includes expert commentary from panelists Ms Sandra Lee and Dr
Ann Sullivan as well as additional observations by political scientist Dr Maria Bargh and Dr Ranginui Walker. It screens
every Tuesday and Wednesday at 8.30 PM until November 5 with live-to-air election night coverage on Saturday November 8
from 8.00 PM. For more information, go to the website www.maoritelevision.com.
ENDS