The Letter
Monday 2 February 2004
THE STATE OF THE NATION
Excerpts from Richard Prebble’s State of the Nation address today.
IT’S BUSH
In 2004 the US election will dominate world politics. Howard Dean’s fall is a dramatic demonstration that public opinion
polls and commentators do not determine elections. It is votes in the ballot boxes. Senator John Kerry will be a much
stronger candidate than Dean. The Republican tax cuts have worked and economic performance will re-elect Bush.
Waiting for a Democrat president to resolve our nuclear dispute is not going to work.
NO TRADE DEALS
NZ is very isolated. A development in 2004 may see our country more isolated - the Eastern European nations joining the
EU. The former Eastern bloc countries that have experienced communism are pro-American. EU foreign policy is bound to
change and we in NZ will be even more on our own.
THE KIWI
The Kiwi is going to climb strongly in value. Most analysts predicted the US Fed would start increasing interest rates
in August. It could be much earlier. Investors will then re-examine holding the Kiwi. They will see the growing trade
deficit. The Kiwi will then fall out of bed.
NEW LABOUR LAW
Labour intends to significantly increase compliance costs in 2004. The new labour bill’s purpose is to take us back to
the days of trade union power in the 1980s. ACT led a huge campaign against the original ERA and was able to get many
clauses deleted. It is those clauses, such as being forced into union multi-employer agreements, which are back in the
new bill. Fighting this bill is ACT’s priority. For a chance to have your say see http://www.act.org.nz/era.
NEVER MORE IN DEBT
Household debt levels are alarming. In relation to GDP, NZers have far higher debt than Americans and the most indebted
households. The government’s increase in its share of GDP, raised by stealth taxes like the fuel taxes, has wiped out
real income rises, causing households to take on debt to maintain living standards.
THE $6 BILLION SURPLUS
Labour intends to increase government spending on projects like the America’s Cup and Maori TV. Dr Cullen talks of tax
cuts for the low paid but such cuts will inevitably go mainly to welfare beneficiaries. The government could now reduce
the company and personal income tax rate to 20 percent and still balance its budget. This debate will dominate this
year’s budget and the next election.
ISSUES OF 2004
Foreshore - The government’s foreshore proposals are political expediency and have no basis in principle. Labour has
instead created a new legal concept; the public domain, new governance rights for Maori, and is offering to transfer
significant economic wealth to Maori through marine development rights. It’s a recipe for years of litigation and
agitation. Parents’ right to choose -ACT’s policies, especially in education, are workable solutions. The issue in 2004,
which has much appeal to Maori, is the parents’ right to choice movement, ending the double taxing of parents who choose
to send their children to independent schools.
Health - Labour solved the problem of hospital waiting lists by simply abolishing the hospital waiting list. It is a
state secret how many people have been referred back to GPs. ACT is commissioning the first ever nationwide survey to
find out the numbers really waiting for hospital treatment.
Brash’s speech - on Maori issues read like speeches ACT has been giving since Derek Quigley introduced his Treaty
settlement bill (all parties, including NZ First, voted against it). Successive Labour Ministers have set out to portray
Dr Brash as making a desperate play for the race card. It’s clear from media commentators’ reaction they are scared to
state their support for what he is saying.
Increase in violent crime - Revolving door prisons do not work. ACT’s polling shows most Labour voters prefer ACT’s Zero
Tolerance to Crime approach.
THE STATUS OF THE PARTIES
Labour – a minority government intends to implement its politically correct agenda, even though it has no electoral
mandate. A Clean Slate bill will allow criminals to lie about their convictions. A new politically correct families
commission has redefined the family so widely that the Mongrel Mob is now legally a family. Helen Clark wants an
anti-smacking bill. The list goes on and on.
National agrees they fought a terrible campaign last election and then had an awful year in 2003. With a new Leader is a
new chance.
NZ First - It is an old political maxim, if you are going to make a career in exposing scandals, then you must observe
the highest standards. Mr Peters is going to pay a very high price for his habit of dining without paying.
United has a problem. How can a pro-family values party justify supporting the godless, anti-family Labour party?
The Greens - Apart from GE what issue do the Greens have? They are only distinguished by extreme left positions that the
old communist party used to promote. NZers don’t support extreme left policies and despite strong support from media
commentators it is hard to see the Greens making the 5 percent threshold next election.
ACT had its best polling support in any post-election year. ACT will win the Huata court case, the injunction will be
lifted and she will be expelled from Parliament.
Kenneth Wang, No.10 on ACT’s list, will be sworn in as an MP. ACT has a vision of an ownership society where the average
family owns their own home, has health insurance and a superannuation scheme for their retirement. ACT has the practical
positive policies to achieve what is still the Kiwi dream – an ownership society. See http://www.act.org.nz/sotn for the full State of the Nation speech.
ENDS