Lebanon's Crucial August 5, 2007 Election
Israel and the Welch Club have chosen the reliable Amin Gemayel-- who will the Lebanese voter's pick?
Boston 's electoral sage and former Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil's famous quip about all politics being local
notwithstanding, in Lebanon all politics appear increasingly international. With Lebanon 's first election since the
2006 July War presently scheduled within a few days, Sunday August 5, 2007 to be precise, pundits and observers are
caught up in a frenzy of speculation. Some analysts go as far as to say that this by-election to fill the seats of the
two recently assassinated Members of Parliament, Pierre Gemayel (son of Amin) and Walid Eido, will determine Lebanon's
foreseeable future and even whether Israel will be continue to exist much longer in the region.
This election is a little bit complicated and one or both of next Sunday's by-elections could still be cancelled
instantaneously if US Ambassador Feltman makes a phone call to PM Siniora and gives the order to abort. The call could
some at any minute but if he does cancel it there will a strong reaction by opposition forces. One candidate running
against Gemayel expects Feltman to cancel the Mount Lebanon Metn contest. As of submission time for this report, both
races are still on.
The contest in the Mount Lebanon Christian District of Metn
The leading candidate in Metn, the more hotly contested seat in Sunday's scheduled election, is former President Amin
Gemayel He sees the by-election as a means to reclaim the seat of his slain son Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel. The
Free Patriotic Movement [FPM] headed by MP Michel Aoun considers the by-election a means to measure its popularity (as
part of the opposition led by Hezbollah) on the Christian political scene.
"It's a referendum on Bush, Siniora, Hariri and Hasan Nassrallah" one Gemayal campaign worker opined.
"The issue is whether the opposition, led by Hezbollah and comprised of Christians, Shia and some Sunni, can defeat the
widely perceived Saudi and Welch Club supported Hariri group, of which Gemayel is a part", a documentary film maker from
Australia, covering the campaign, noted.
According to a statement by one Beirut District Two candidate made on July 28, 2007, the Welch Club, thru certain Saudi'
contacts, channeled 300 million dollars during the past few months to support the Majority Government and weaken
Hezbollah. Part of that money is expected to fund the pro-government campaigns in the two districts.
Announcing his election less than two weeks ago on July 17, 2007 Gemayel, who gained statue in the eyes of the public
for his gracious comments at his beloved son's funeral ( in contrast to Samir Geagea and Wallid Jumblatt's thinly
disguised calls to hang Syria's Bashar Assad and Lebanon's Shia,) quipped " Its not everyday in the middle east that the
father succeeds the son" His audience chuckled for they were mindful that sons, Barshar,(Syria) Abdullah (Jordan)
Mohammad VI(Morocco) Gamel ((Egypt), Islam( Libya)Abdullah (Saudi Arabia) and countless other Middle East dynasties,
sons succeeding fathers is indeed the norm.
Two day ago, Gemeyal told a Campaign rally of Lebanese Forces youth, many of whom were recently issued new US M-16's:
(italicized text below courtesy of a FPM rival)
"My beloved ones, this electoral battle brought me back 30 years (when my younger brother Bachir let me join the Kathib
Militia by waiving the required physical exam and stopped calling me whimp)
It returned me to the by-elections of 1970 in which we triumphed ( my brother Bashir and my father Pierre rigged the
vote and the US allowed us to get weapons , training and cash from Israel ) with your presence here today and through
this electoral battle, we are leading the battle of the youth( our only choice actually since the older generation has
pretty much given up on the Christian militia idea).
Gemayal continued: "Our national battle is interconnected (fight both Hezbollah and fellow Christians who support them).
The Phalange Party students have always led the entire, lengthy struggles (kidnapping the first four hostages in the
1980's-Iranian Diplomats) and executing them ) over decades (slaughters at Tel al Zaatar, checkpoint assassinations and
disappearances, the massacre at Sabra-Shatilla, dozens of anti-Muslim death squads sent into Beirut over the years,
killing Christian rivals, and collaborating with Israel)."
Even with the sympathy vote, the Metn District looks tough for the Bush administration even though it is 95% Christian
(Maronite, Greek Orthodox and Greek Catholics is that order. There are probably only several dozen Shia in Metn) and
former President Amin Gemayel is the favorite son.
One of the scores of misconceptions about Hezbollah found in the West is that it is a narrow Shia group. True its core
in Shia, but its breath increasingly includes all Lebanese sects. Hezbollah was born with a vengeance following the 1982
Israeli invasion to resist the occupation, and since it has substantially expelled Israel, Hezbollah has become very
main stream in many ways. Once Palestine is liberated or when the Lebanese army can defend Lebanon , Hezbollah's hidden
weapons will likely be given to the central government.
Some observers believe that the Siniora government will yet find a way to cancel the Metn election in the remaining days
before the voters make their choice. US Ambassador Feltman it thought to believe it is better to leave the Meth seat
empty rather than risk losing it to the pro-Hezbollah opposition represented by the Free People's Movement led by
Maronite Michel Aoun and supported by the Armenian Christian party Tashnag.
Three recent polls are worrying the Welch Club. One shows Gemayel losing Metn by 5,000 votes, another one shows him
losing by 8,000 votes and the most recent one released today shows a 20,000 vote loss. The next couple of days will
reveal if Feltman pulls the plug on this 'new middle east democracy' event.
The Welch Club reckons that if Gemeyal can win on August 5, they will immediately run him for President in September.
According to one candidate running in the Beirut District on Sunday, it is common knowledge by political insiders in
Lebanon that both Samir Geagea and Harb Boutros have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars of Welch Club money not
to seek the Presidency, giving Gemayel a walk.
Long time Gemayel famly friend Maronite Patriarch Butros Nasrallah Sfeir, (think Boston 's late Cardinal Cushing's close
relationshlip with the Kennedy family) "reconciliation is preferable to political battles."
In last Sunday's sermon, the Patriarch counseled the Chrlistian faithful that "Elections are a healthy and democratic
practice in times of peace and prosperity. However, during times of crisis legitimate matters can be overlooked."
To make sure his flock understood what was expected of them at the voting booth, his Eminence stressed that he " hoped
that mercy and harmony make their way into the hearts and minds of conflicting groups, especially because parliamentary
seats being disputed belonged to people who have been assassinated by merciless criminals. " (His congregation surely
understood that he meant vote for Gemayal in Metn and Hariri's choice in Beirut 's' Second District).
Sfeir , increasingly nervous that his candidate may lose, suggested " the by-elections be postponed or a consensus
concerning by-elections be forged,( i.e. the pro-Hezbollah candidate drop out) "and the democratic game can proceed when
the mandate of the current Parliament expires in a little less than two years."
Speaking during another campaign stop in the form of yet another M ass in Bikfaya to commemorate his slain son, Gemayel
echoed Sfeir's Sunday sermon , saying that in times of crisis "ethical options ought to be adopted." He then took
Communion.
Aoun slammed Gemayel as "a failure" as a politician, after Gemayel had criticized the former general's alliance with
"pro-Syrian groups such as Hezbollah." Gemayel said he had done his best to avoid a battle in the Metn and accused Aoun
of "closing all doors" to consensus.
Gemayel described the Metn by-election as a "battle for survival and a battle for Lebanon 's existence." Aoun echoed the
views of the Hezbollah led opposition when he said the Metn by-election was not a "competition over a parliamentary
seat, but rather a battle against the violation of the Constitution."
Aoun said on Friday that if Gemayel wanted to win the confidence of Metn voters, "he ought to reconsider his political
stands rejected by the majority of Metn people."
A number of other politicians commented on the Metn by-election during the weekend. Former Prime Minister Salim Hoss on
Saturday ripped the Gemayel-Aoun mud-slinging, saying that Gemayel was vulgar in his speech and "Aoun showed even more
vulgarity."
If Gemayel falters in the Metn election, he will be dropped like a bad habit. As for the Presidency of the Republic the
Welch Club will likely keep Feltman on past his earlier scheduled departure date from Lebanon in order to help secure
the Presidency for Nassib La Hood, who is closely related to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia since he married Abdullah's
favorite sister in law. ( The good king has lots and lots of sisters-in-laws and it's rumored that he truly loves them
all).
Some Lebanese political pundits feel that Nassib could also get Syrian support for the Presidency since he started his
career in their intelligence service. "The Wahabi-Christian union made in Heaven…er… …Riyadh!" according to one campaign
worker for Ibrahim Halabi, the People's Party candidate (pro Hezbollah) in Beirut's Second District.
The lean, hungry and sallow Samir Geagea, may be the greatest local beneficiary in the ruling bloc. If Gemayel loses,
Geagea would draw all the voters who voted for Gemayel to his side and be undisputed leader of the Phlange party as well
as its illegally rearmed militia, the Lebanese Forces. In case Gemayel wins Geagea hopes Gemayel will remain MP Gemayel
instead of President Gemayel.
Geagea also wins if opposition forces triumph in Meth because Gemayel's loss would double because he would not be
eligible to run for presidency on the one hand and his political career would fade.
On Monday evening there was some squrmishes between Geagea and Aoun campaign workers but no serious injuries occured.
One problem the Israel lobby sees with Amin Gemeyal is that although he has been involved in Lebanese politics for
nearly 30 years, he is still untested in a competitive election at the ballot box. Some in Lebanon call Amin the
'professional inheritor" because he is said to have inherited his wife when her fiancé was killed, he inherited his seat
in Parliament from his father Pierre, then inherited the Presidency of Lebanon when his brother Bachir was murdered,
then he inherited the leadership of the Phalange Party when his father Pierre died, and not he stands to inherit another
seat in Parliament as a result of his son Pierre II's murder.
To make matters worse for the Bush Administration candidate, MP Michel Murr and the Armenian Christian Tashnag Party
expressed their support Monday for the FPM's (pro-Hezbollah) candidate in opposition to Gemeyal. The FPM thus
potentially secured a large bloc of the Metn's roughly 32,000 Armenian votes and looks like it can win. The Metn
electorate numbers 162,950 voters.
Murr also advised Christian parties against trading accusations regarding the Pierre Gemayel's assassination. Aoun
hinted on Monday that the younger Gemayel's assassins could be found inside the government. Many observers thought he
was referring to Samir Geagea who has long had a complicated relationship with the Gemayels and other Christian groups.
Geagea was convicted in five cases of massacring rival Christians. He was recently pardoned in the Civil War Amnesty of
2005 and seeks to lead the Lebanese Forces back to its Sabra-Shatilla patriotic glory when he functioned as militia
intelligence chief and liaison with Israel 's Sharon, Etyan and Yaron as they watched from atop the old Kuwaiti Embassy
as the Lebanese Forces slaughtered the defenseless camp inhabitants.
Beirut 's Second District
The other seat to be decided on August 5 is Beirut 's Second district. Recently it has been a March 14 th / Future Party
Sunni area, where during the 2005 elections 47% of the Sunni voters turned out, 34% of the Shia, and 10% of the
Christians. The low Christian turnout was caused by the Armenians and Maronites who supported Michel Aoun, generally
boycotting the election. The Second District Seat has been pro-Hariri since the 2000 election when the murdered Walid
Eido first won it with the help of the murdered Rafic Hariri..
US ambassador Feltman will likely let this election go forward, even if he cancels Metn. Until Ibrahim Halabi
(pro-Hezbollah) started making a real race of it a couple of weeks ago, the District was considered safe for the Hariri
forces.
Hezbollah is not participating in the by-elections because they consider the Sinioira government illegal and President
Lahoud has not signed off on the special election as required by Lebanese law. Nonetheless, every voter knows which
candidate they would like to see win.
Beirut's Second District campaign brings to mind Tammany Hall and Richard Daily Sr.'s Chicago. This weekend boxes filled
with internationally donated food, clothing and household items, meant to aid last summer's war victims but instead were
stored in warehouses are being dusted off and Future Movement (Hariri) labels hastily pasted over the names of the donor
NGO's and governments,. These gift parcels are being handed out only to voters who support the US backed Siniora
government and who are known to be pro-Hariri voters. Opposition and pro-Hezbollah voters will receive none of the July
War donated relief parcels, even though Beirut's Second District was not bombed by Israel .
'We need Jimmy Carter as poll watcher!'
Another Second District Pro-government electioneering technique, widely used in the 2005 election in Christian areas
North of Beirut, and elsewhere, is the $100-600 per vote bribe. Several campaign workers explained to this observer how
the system works. Any voter willing to sell his vote goes to the Future Movement (pro-Siniora/Feltman government)
campaign Headquarters. . The voter picks up an Official Interior Ministry Ballot Envelope.( which are illegally made
available to pro-Government Future Movement Campaign HQ) Under Lebanese law the envelopes are only to be issued to the
voter as he/she enters the polling station, picks up the blank ballot while observed by squinting poll watchers. The
corrupt Ministry employee (s) makes them available to Saad Hariri's organization a week before the election. The voter
is given an envelope by Hariri staff which the vote seller secrets on his person. When the voter goes to vote the
election official gives the voter a ballot and envelope. Once in the booth, the voter marks his ballot and puts it in
the Hariri envelope and seals it. The voter hides the other envelope in a pocket etc. The voter exits the voting booth
and inserts it in the ballot box slot
The voter then goes to Hariri HQ presents the other envelope proving he voted and is paid the bribe in cash. In District
Two, where this practice will be most in play, there are 234 Vote Boxes used in 15-20 polling stations. Vote canvassers
from the Lebanese Arab University advised this observer that typically 5-10% of Lebanon's voters sell their votes
This technique works best in close elections informed sources report because only about 5% of Lebanese voters are
willing to sell their votes.
Grass Roots Campaigning
In addition to brochures, posters plastered on every street, honking cars with Lebanese flags out the windows, radio and
TV spots (the latter against the law unless all candidates are given equal free time—but the law is increasingly
ignored) and sound trucks, this election features some none too subtle slogans and billboards.
The Hariri financed Future Movement has as its slogan for Beirut:
"Beiurt is a Red Line"…among its meanings is No Shia are welcomed because this is strictly a Sunni area.
Another pro-government billboard shows just 4 tombstones to remind voters of the four murdered MP's from Beirut.
The opposition has countered these billboards with their own saying "lack of electricity is a red line" and "lack of
clean drinking water is a red line", inadequate health care and poor schools are a red line."
In the Metn district on July 31, 2007 the Gemayel forces issued a last minute slogan aimed at weakening Aoun's FPM
candidate: " This election is about a dead body" i.e. Amin's son Pierre.
Issues the voters want to discuss
Several foreign observers as well as Lebanese campaign workers have commented on the seeming lack of local issues. Known
in the Middle East for their political sophistication and knowledge of what's happening in the region the local
electorate in this by-election appears more interested in discussing the following national- international issues:
-whether the Siniora Government conspired with the Bush administration to prolong the destruction of Lebanon during the
July war;
-why the Bush administration is now sending weapons to Lebanon for the Siniora government (for use against Hezbollah?)
when a year ago they refused military aid to Lebanon while they were rushing arms to Israel for the same purpose;
-why the American Embassy is touting the 25% increase in military aid to Israel knowing the weapons will likely be used
again against Lebanon;
-why the US government was planning to build a mega-Embassy on the property it bought in 2005 for $22 million near the
Baabda Presidential Palace where some say it planned to control Lebanon's president while spying on nearby Hezbollah.
According to State Department spokesman Sean McCormick, on July 7, 2007, the State Department suspended the project
after Feltman advised Washington that Hezbollah controlled the Baabda region and could cut the roads to the Embassy
whenever it wanted. McCormick's reasoning seemed a little bizarre since any number of groups could do the same thing
with the roads leading to the current Embassy site, indeed various salafists have been suspected of monitoring the
Embassy.
- -Why the US Embassy refuses to order the Israelis to stop their violations of Lebanese airspace and deliver landmine
and cluster bomb maps so the numbers of civilians being killed and wounded from unexploded ordnance will decrease.
-Conditions in Iraq are an issue as more Iraqi refugees come to Lebanon in very bad straits. Lebanese truly care about
other Arabs despite their attraction to French culture. Reports that one out of every seven Iraqi's have fled the US
invasion with Oxfam Reporting this week that t here are also more than 2,000,000 internally displaced Iraqis, and that
60% of the Iraqis registered to receive food and water are not getting it, and that more than one-third of the Iraqi
population is in urgent need of aid.
-As the summer heat draws citizens to the beaches, last summer's oil spill is an emotional issue because the Lebanese
coastline remains heavily polluted from last year's Jiyyeh oil spill and cleaning efforts have not achieved the desired
result, according to two environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) on July 25.
The ominous new information was issued by the NGOs Green Line and Byblos Ecologia on the first anniversary of Israel's
bombing of the Jiyyeh power plant, which dumped about 15,000 tons of crude oil into the Mediterranean.
"The beaches are still very toxic," said Richard Steiner, a conservation specialist from the University of Alaska . "The
oil spill is more toxic than other known spills." He concluded that Lebanon 's rocky beaches were still heavily
polluted, with much oil still embedded in the rocks. While sandy beaches fared better, Steiner said some oil remained
under the sand and on the sea bed. Steiner collected samples from 120 kilometers of shoreline.
Ali Darwish, president of Green Line, also bashed the government and the ministry.
"Prime Minister Fuad Siniora has never addressed this issue. It doesn't mean anything to him. We hold this government
and its leader responsible for this crisis," said Darwish. "Israel is to blame for this disaster, along with the US,
which funded and supported the war. The fact that the government did not take any measures and remained silent makes it
an accomplice in this crime, and it should be held accountable."
Steiner, however, held Israel absolutely accountable for the oil spill, stressing that international procedures hold the
party that causes an oil spill responsible.
"Israel continues to refuse to accept responsibility," said Steiner. "A reimbursement fund must be established, and the
only way to do that is through a Security Council resolution," he added.
At the moment it appears increasingly likely that Lebanon 's election will happen on August 5. If it does the results
will be carefully analyzed to divine Lebanon 's future as well as the international winners and losers
ENDS
Franklin P. Lamb, PhD
Director, Americans Concerned for
Middle East Peace, Wash.DC-Beirut
Senior Fellow, The Institute for
Middle East Policy Dialogue, USA
Beirut
ALSO, For Your Information:
The Price We Pay: A Quarter Century of Israel's use of American Weapons against Lebanon (1978-2006) is available at: Amazon or Lebanese Bookstores (soon also in Arabic). And in the USA, the title is available at LebaneseBooks.com, and currently enjoys Free Standard Shipping.
Hezbollah: A Brief Guide for Beginners is expected in early summer in Arabic