MEDIA RELEASE
DEC 16, 2008
Market special: Lucky no more!
Australia a raging $1.12 to go into recession!
It’s the historic market the Federal Government was dreading – top financial bookmaker Centrebet has Australia an
overwhelming $1.12 favourite to fall into recession inside the next 12 months! Punters can get a whopping $5.50 the
lucky country avoids recession (two consecutive negative quarters of GDP as published by the ABS)!
The first ever national economy market comes after Centrebet’s successful leap into the world of RBA Interest Rate
movements five months back!
Centrebet’s media chief and analyst Neil Evans said Australia was only just clinging above the recession level based on
the latest GDP figures, and the outlook will become a lot darker before the wheel turns! “The global financial downturn
has not even gone close to bottoming out through Australia’s economy, and allowing for fearful retail and wholesale
forecasts through the Christmas-New Year period, it will be a miracle if Australia avoids recession,” Evans said.
He said the watershed recession market effectively included five quarterly GDP product announcements – from December 08
to December 09 inclusive. “I find it almost comical Treasurer Wayne Swan says the country can effectively avoid
recession without going into budget deficit. Any government forecast of growth for the next six months, in my opinion,
is off the mark considering the extent of global production meltdown in essential industries like car manufacturing and
technology. The effect on job losses has not yet peaked!”
But Evans said he still expected plenty of punters to back the outsider! “Australians are proud. They’re sentimental,
and what a way to boost widespread flagging confidence. Avoid recession – and take 9/2 to celebrate!”
Centrebet has also released its latest market for the Reserve Bank’s next Interest Rates move, with the 0.75 per cent
rate cut a slight favourite at $2.35 ahead of the 0.50 per cent cut at $2.40, and the full 1.0 per cent cut on the third
line at $3.50!
“We still believe there’s a big chance the RBA will call a snap meeting for January. That is why the 50 to 75 cuts are
right in play. If the central bank went through to the scheduled meeting date of February 3, then the full percentage
point drop would probably shorten a bit,” Evans said.
WILL AUSTRALIA GO INTO RECESSION ANY TIME BEFORE DEC 31, 2009?
$1.12 YES
$5.50 NO
RBA'S NEXT OFFICIAL INTEREST RATE ANNOUNCEMENT (Sch: Feb 3, 2009)
$2.35 RATE CUT BY 0.51 % - 0.75 %
$2.40 RATE CUT BY 0.26 % - 0.50 %
$3.50 RATE CUT BY 0.76 % - 1.0 %
$8.00 RATE CUT BY MORE THAN 1.0 %
$9.00 RATE CUT BY 0.01 % 0.25 %
$34.00 RATE STAYS THE SAME
$126.00 ANY RATE INCREASE
ENDS