Syria Faces Uncertain Future After Regime’s Collapse Amid Humanitarian Crises

By Vibhu Mishra
17 December 2024

Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher briefed ambassadors via video link from Damascus, where they are engaging with key stakeholders to ramp up UN support and pushing for an inclusive and credible political transition.

They emphasized that while the current moment offers a rare opportunity for peace and rebuilding, it is fraught with risks.

A pivotal moment

Mr. Pedersen described the dramatic end of the 54-year-long Assad regime as a pivotal moment for the country and its people. He stressed the need for careful management by both Syrians and the international community.

“There is a profound and shared sentiment among Syrians that this new situation belongs to them, that it is their moment to realize their legitimate aspirations,” he said.

“But many are apprehensive about the future. The challenges ahead are enormous.”

He told Council members that regime’s fall followed swift advances by the Military Operations Command, an armed coalition led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). A caretaker authority, composed of officials from the self-styled Syrian Salvation Government, has assumed power.

Regional power struggles

Mr. Pedersen also highlighted continued tensions across Syria, where armed opposition groups and regional power struggles threaten destabilization.

Northeast Syria, including some neighbourhoods of Aleppo, remains under the control of the United States-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). A five-day ceasefire brokered by the US and Türkiye along the Euphrates River has expired, with reports of military build-ups and rising tensions.

“Such an escalation could be catastrophic,” he warned.

Situation in the Golan

Adding to the volatility, in southwestern Syria, the UN peacekeeping mission, UNDOF, has observed Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in multiple locations in the area of separation.

Israeli troops have advanced several kilometres into Syrian territory according to multiple media reports and there have been hundreds of airstrikes on military facilities, equipment and supplies across Syria, which Israel described as a defensive measure.

“Such attacks place a battered civilian population at further risk and undermine the prospects of an orderly political transition,” Mr. Pedersen said, citing also reports of Israeli plans to expand settlements in the Golan.

“Israel must cease all settlement activity in the occupied Syrian Golan, which are illegal. Attacks on territorial integrity must stop,” he stressed.

Preserve Syria’s institutions

Mr. Pedersen outlined Syria’s three main challenges: ongoing hostilities, immense humanitarian and economic needs, and the necessity for a credible political transition.

He underscored the importance of preserving state institutions, establishing an inclusive governance process, and ensuring free and fair elections – all critical components of Security Council resolution 2254 (2015).

“Stability will not last long if not built on credible and inclusive foundations. The time is to build those foundations now,” he said.

Staggering humanitarian needs

UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher echoed these concerns, underscoring the staggering humanitarian toll of the long-running conflict, compounded by the recent upheaval.

Even before the recent dramatic events, Syria was one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with over 17 million people – or 70 per cent of the population – in need of assistance.

“The recent escalation has only added to these needs,” Fletcher reported. More than one million Syrians were displaced in less than two weeks, while hundreds of civilians, including at least 80 children, have been killed or injured.

Essential services, already decimated by years of conflict, ground to a halt, and schools, health facilities and aid operations are degraded. There are also reports of critical shortages of food, fuel and supplies due to disrupted trade routes and border closures.

To alleviate the situation, he has been pushing for a massive scale-up of aid efforts, he said, adding that the caretaker authorities in Damascus have committed to facilitating humanitarian deliveries across conflict lines and borders.

Funds needed

In addition, resources are desperately needed to fund relief operations. The 2024 humanitarian appeal for Syria is one of the most poorly supported, having received less than a third of its requirements with only two weeks left.

The UN for its part has allocated $32 million from its Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) to support critical, lifesaving humanitarian work.

Mr. Fletcher urged the international community to follow suit.

“Now is the time to invest in the Syrian people, to support flexible funds so that we can respond to changing needs…now is also the time for Member States to work on development support to rebuilding Syria, reducing dependence on humanitarian support; and maintaining essential services.”

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