Major Global Study Reveals Surging Growth In Tourism Emissions And “Alarming” Inequalities Between Countries

Highlights:

• Broadest, most extensive analysis of global tourism emissions to date - datasets include 175 countries over 10 years - providing unprecedented analytical depth
• Global tourism emissions grew 3.5% per annum 2009 - 2019
• In 2019, global tourism was responsible for 8.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions
• Tourism emissions are associated with “alarming” distributional inequalities
• Top 20 countries produce 75% of global tourism emissions
• The carbon intensity of global tourism is 30% higher than the average for the global economy
• The tourism industry has made very little progress in reducing emissions; this is an “insurmountable challenge”

Brisbane, Australia - [Wednesday 11th December 2024]. A major global study analysing a decade of tourism data across 175 countries has revealed surging growth in tourism emissions and “alarming” inequalities between countries. Conducted by scientists from four universities, the research is the most in-depth and extensive of its type ever undertaken, covering the years 2009 to 2020. The research has been published this week in Nature Communications.

The team analysed the national tourism carbon footprints of 175 countries, drawing on multiple datasets including those published directly by governments. Data was then validated, analysed and run through a model, leading to the most clear picture of global tourism emissions ever produced. This includes the ability to drill down into the tourism supply chain, specific data sources and emissions by both country of residence and destination country.

Rapid growth, at double that of the worldwide economy - now 8.8% of all emissions

Global tourism emissions grew 3.5% per annum between 2009 and 2019, a rate which is double that of the worldwide economy. The primary drivers of emissions growth are slow technology efficiency gains combined with high growth in tourism demand, in turn driven by global population growth. The biggest emissions growth within tourism came from aviation, which the researchers describe as “the Achilles heel of global tourism emissions”. Aviation accounted for half of direct tourism emissions. Utilities and private cars were also significant contributors.

The study revealed that in 2019, global tourism was responsible for 8.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions - showing a significant increase. Tourism produced 5.2 Gt of emissions in 2019, a net increase of 1.5 Gt in just 10 years. The carbon intensity of tourism is also 30% higher than the average for the global economy, and four times more than the service sector.

“Alarming” distributional inequalities

The research uncovered significant inequalities between countries which the research team describes as “alarming”. Just three countries produced 39% of global tourism emissions in 2019 - namely, the United States of America, China and India. These three countries were also responsible for 60% of the growth in tourism emissions over a decade.

The twenty highest emitting countries contributed three-quarters of the global tourism footprint, with the remaining 155 countries accounting for only 25% of global tourism emissions. The difference between countries that travel the most and the least is more than 100 fold.

An “insurmountable challenge for the tourism sector” with little progress made; a threat to tourism.

The research team described the challenge facing the tourism sector as “insurmountable” in the absence of significant policy change.

Lead author, Associate Professor Ya-Yen Sun from the University of Queensland said: “The sector is pivotal to global emissions trajectories, but the tourism industry has made very little progress in reducing emissions. If this same growth rate is maintained into future years, tourism emissions are expected to double every 20 years, which is obviously not sustainable.”

Associate Professor Sun said that sustained high growth emissions threaten to undermine the future viability of global tourism. “What this study clearly identifies is that technology efficiency gains and infrastructure improvements offer no chance at all of achieving net zero milestones. The demand growth is outstripping any emission reduction measures currently in place - and the net growth in emissions is massive.”

The need for more focussed national tourism decarbonisation strategies

The research team proposes that national tourism decarbonisation strategies will now require “demand volume thresholds” to align global tourism with decarbonisation targets, and that such strategies are “most urgent in the case of the world’s twenty highest-emitting tourism destinations.” They identified that to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, the sectoral emissions would need to be reduced by more than 10% annually, to the year 2050.

Assoc. Prof. Sun says that limiting growth in demand for air travel is the most obvious first step, particularly long haul international travel”. “Focussing on limiting growth in international air travel would also offer a more socially equitable approach, which is important in terms of addressing extreme distributional inequalities and the need to transition to a more just and inclusive tourism future.”

The research team is now focussed on working with individual countries and tourism organisations on further data analysis to inform policy measures and decision making, as well as on efforts to secure funding for an extension of the study to allow for ongoing monitoring and analysis of tourism emissions globally. Assoc Prof. Sun added “Ultimately, we want to help policymakers and industry leaders to understand the numbers, have clarity around the impact of the industry on global emissions, and take appropriate steps to align country tourism emissions with Paris Climate commitments as expressed in Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) .”

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