Implementation Of Latest NDCs Could Lead To Emissions Increase: UN Report

• The report estimates that full implementation of all latest NDCs is likely to lead to a 5.9% (ranging from 3.2%-8.6%) emission reduction by 2030 compared to the 2019 levels.
• Implementation of all latest NDCs excluding conditional elements is estimated to lead to 0.8% higher emissions in 2030 than in 2019 (ranging from 1.8% lower to 3.4% higher).

20 November 2024

The UNFCCC Secretariat published a synthesis report of countries’ nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement on climate change, assessing the combined impact of national climate plans on expected global emissions in 2030. In the words of UNFCCC Executive Secretary Simon Stiell, the current pledges “fall miles short of what’s needed” to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.

Released ahead of the 2024 UN Climate Change Conference (UNFCCC COP 29) on 28 October, the NDC Synthesis Report 2024 (FCCC/PA/CMA/2024/10) brings together information from the 168 latest available NDCs communicated by 195 parties to the Paris Agreement and recorded in the NDC registry as of 9 September 2024.

The report estimates that full implementation of all latest NDCs is likely to lead to a 5.9% (ranging from 3.2%-8.6%) emission reduction by 2030 compared to the 2019 levels. Implementation of all latest NDCs excluding conditional elements is estimated to lead to 0.8% higher emissions in 2030 than in 2019 (ranging from 1.8% lower to 3.4% higher).

In a statement on the launch of the report, Stiell called for “much bolder” new NDCs as “done well, they can be transformational” in driving stronger investment, more jobs and economic growth, less pollution and better health, affordable and clean energy, and many others benefits.

Stiell called attention to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates, according to which greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030 relative to 2019 levels – and 60% by 2035 compared to 2019 levels if global warming is to be limited to 1.5°C this century. “Every fraction of a degree matters,” he said.

While nationally determined, Stiell said countries’ climate plans need to pass the “ABC test” by:

• Including Ambitious new emissions targets that are economy-wide and cover all GHGs;
• Being Broken down into sectors and gases; and
• Being Credible, backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding to ensure implementation.

He further indicated that new NDCs should detail adaptation priorities and investments to protect critical sectors, infrastructure, and people, supporting and aligning with National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes.

The next round of NDCs is due in 2025, in advance of COP 30. [Publication: Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement: Synthesis Report by the Secretariat]

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