One Year After Signing The Tripling Pledge, Governments’ Targets Are Unchanged, Even As Solar’s Prospects Are Upgraded

Baku, 12th November 2024: A new report from energy think tank Ember finds that a year after the global goal to triple renewables was agreed at COP28, national targets by governments are almost unchanged, still adding up to just over a doubling of the global renewables capacity by 2030. In that time, solar’s prospects have improved, leading to upgrades in market forecasts for renewables by 2030.

At COP28, over 130 countries signed a pledge to contribute to tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. By October 2024, only eight countries have updated their renewable targets, resulting in just a 4 GW increase in overall renewable energy targets globally.

The current sum of 2030 national renewable targets is 7,242 GW, a 2.1x increase from the 3,379 GW capacity recorded in 2022. Reaching a global tripling of renewables would require an additional 3,758 GW of capacity installed by 2030.

Renewables markets have moved, but governments’ ambitions have not. Governments are far behind the curve of solar growth, however its remarkable expansion has led prominent organisations to revise their forecasts. Projections from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the last 12 months for 2030 have been updated by 22%, with 2030 totals now slightly exceeding the quintupling required to align with the global tripling goal. By comparison, Ember’s analysis finds that of the combined 2030 national targets set by countries, solar currently amounts to 3,011 GW, only 2.5 times the 2022 solar capacity.

For wind, government national targets add up to just over a doubling of capacity by 2030.

Forecasts suggest that global wind capacity in 2030 will reach around 2,100 GW, similar to the sum of present national targets, but less than the tripling of wind capacity needed to align with the global tripling goal.

“Renewables markets have moved, but governments’ ambitions have not. The growth of renewables is exceeding expectations every year and this is combined with falling prices,” said Dr Katye Altieri, Electricity Analyst at Ember. “Markets are booming but there’s still a lack of ambition from countries.”

The report analysed national 2030 renewable capacity targets for 96 countries and the EU as a bloc. These countries collectively account for 96% of the world’s renewable capacity, 95% of global electricity sector demand and 94% of global power sector emissions. Out of these 96 countries, 83 have renewable capacity targets for 2030.

Ember’s analysis finds that major regions of the world including the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, Eurasia, Latin America and Asia have a large gap between their overall regional targets and what is needed to meet the 2030 tripling goal.

Only 30 countries have established national storage targets 

While countries pledged to triple global renewable capacity at COP28, the presidency of the upcoming COP29 has set out a vision for a global goal to increase energy storage capacity six times above 2022 levels, reaching 1,500 GW by 2030, which was supported by the G7 earlier this year.

The report finds that only 30 of the 96 countries assessed have some form of national storage target. Their collective sum of 2030 storage targets totals 284 GW, falling short of the 1,500 GW global storage target by 1,216 GW, and 492 GW short of the BNEF market forecast for 2030.

Unlocking the tripling goal needs rapid action. The pace of the market, falling prices and increased technological efficiency of renewables should give governments confidence to increase their ambitions and update their targets. COP29 and the upcoming 2025 update of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) present an ideal opportunity to close the gap between where national targets are, and what is needed to meet or exceed a global tripling goal.

The report is here: https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewables-market-have-moved-but-governments-have-not

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