The Frozen Frontier: How The US And Its Indo-Pacific Allies Navigate Tensions And Opportunities In The Arctic

HONOLULU (Oct 22, 2024)

As the alliance between Russia and China deepens in the Arctic, the frozen region is becoming more critical than ever in international relations, experts concluded at several recent panels hosted by the East-West Center. Even so, the region’s importance is often overlooked, according to Elizabeth Wishnick, an East-West Center in Washington Research Innovation & Collaboration Exchange (RICE) fellow and a senior research scientist at the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division of the Center for Naval Analyses.

In tandem with the publication of her paper “Indo-Pacific Lens on the Arctic,” Wishnick explained why she believes the interests of America’s Indo-Pacific allies including Japan, Singapore, India, and South Korea should be considered more closely in discussions about Arctic issues. She and other experts agreed that the US must harness its soft power to strengthen alliances and take advantage of room for collaboration in scientific research, climate action, and resource management.

Fertile ground for investment

The Arctic may be remote and sparsely populated, but it is fertile ground for investment, and Indo-Pacific countries have unique interests in the region no matter how far away they lie from it. All four nations in Wishnick’s focus are interested in Arctic energy resources, particularly liquefied natural gas, or LNG, from Russia. These countries are also investing in space and satellite technologies to improve their maritime capabilities.

Another common factor linking these Indo-Pacific countries’ interests is climate change. Japan, Singapore, India, and Korea all face climate-related vulnerabilities, and each has a specific stake in climate science conducted in the Arctic: Singapore has a vested interest in monitoring rising sea levels, while India seeks to track how the climate crisis affects its monsoons. Meanwhile, Japanese scientists are studying ice flows that affect navigation, and everyone is interested in sustainable energy investments.

This shared keen interest in Arctic science, climate research, and maritime governance is where the opportunity for the US lies: said Wishnick, but its traditional geopolitical approach may become increasingly ineffective. To solidify its security interests, the US should focus more on cooperative geo-economic opportunities, she said.

“The bottom line is that these countries may be distant from the Arctic region, but they still focus on it,” said Wishnick. “The US, with its laser focus on strategic cooperation as we see in its Arctic Defense Strategy, misses some of this picture and could benefit from some new pathways to engaging with these Indo-Pacific states in the Arctic.”

The need for collaborative frameworks

In an EWC discussion event titled “Breaking New Ice: US Indo-Pacific Partners and the Arctic,” Dr. Rebecca Pincus of the Polar Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center agreed that the US should leverage its alliances. Cooperation among the US, Japan, South Korea, India, and Singapore could pave the way for sustainable fisheries management and joint climate research initiatives, especially as climate change affects fish migration patterns and shipping routes, she said.

There’s current there is an international agreement that places a moratorium on fishing in the central Arctic Ocean, and China, Korea, and Japan all signed on to it. That’s an “immediate forcing function for cooperation right there,” said Pincus. The US could also strengthen its partnerships with its allies by offering training in navigation or how to respond to environmental disasters such as oil spills.

“Russia is training Indian maritime personnel in polar navigation, but that’s something the US could do as well,” said Wishnick, who also highlighted the opportunity. “Countries are relying on Russia where they don’t really need to.”

China’s Arctic ambitions

Meanwhile, China and Russia are solidifying their relationship in new ways. They recently held joint naval exercises in the Bering Sea and their Coast Guards have entered maritime security agreements. China, which has had an “observer” seat on the Arctic Council since 2013, has acquired stakes in liquefied natural gas, or LG, projects in the Russian Arctic.

The Arctic’s geopolitical landscape could polarize nations and potentially lead to military conflicts, experts said. Recent incidents, such as when China was involved in accidentally damaging the Balticconnector pipeline and data cable in the Gulf of Finland in October 2023, underscore the potential for conflict.

These kinds of conflicts could pop up more frequently as shipping expands along the northeast passage, including new routes via Europe’s Arctic waters and the Northern Sea Route, or NSR, according to Wishnick’s report. The NSR is the shortest shipping route between the western part of Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region, but it lies within Russia's exclusive economic zone, and sanctions related to the war in Ukraine prevent US Indo-Pacific allies from cooperating with Russia to access it.

Upholding shared norms

The US is squarely focused on deterrence and defense as Russia conducts military and nuclear activities in the Arctic, according to Sherri Goodman, a senior fellow with the Polar Institute and Environmental Change & Security Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. But US officials mustn't overlook China’s activities, she said.

“We need to understand how China is operating in the Arctic region too,” Goodman said. “They are playing a long game and want to learn from Russians, but they're not tethered to them by any means.”

She cautioned that America must closely monitor China's activities, especially as it conducts research and forms local agreements in the US, such as when it was vying to build an LG pipeline in Alaska. Building local infrastructure without direct national oversight could pose unforeseen challenges to US interests, she said. “We have to have our antenna out for that kind of effort.”

All three experts agreed that climate issues, security interests, and international cooperation will define the Arctic's future. “It’s important that there be a sort of call and response between NATO and the Indo-Pacific partners and alliances,” Pincus said, “so that really our shared norms, values, and interests are upheld and defended in both ocean basins and both sides of the Arctic region.”

The views expressed are those of the authors and speakers, and do not necessarily reflect the policies or positions of the East-West Center or of any other organization.

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