DELEGATION OF THE EUROPEAN UNION TO ETHIOPIA
Author: J. NAUDTS
Date: August 20th, 2021
Classification: LIMITED
To: Rita Laranjinha
Subject: ETHIOPIA – Overview August 14 – 20: Both sides remain convinced that a military victory is within reachSummary:
While fighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continued on several fronts, OLA extended occupation of rural
areas in Oromia Region and gained control over some important roads. There seems to be small to no appetite to start
negotiating at this point: both sides are convinced that they will be able to achieve a decisive military victory within
the coming months. Eritrea reportedly sent reinforcements to Western Tigray and might be preparing a new offensive.
There is no more food available in Tigray and the humanitarian needs in other regions are also growing fast. The
repression against ethnic Tigrayans in Addis Ababa and other parts of Ethiopia is continuing. PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit
Asmara and to Turkey where he signed a military cooperation agreement.Assessment:
1. While fighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara Forces continued on several fronts, OLA managed to occupy large parts
of the rural areas in Oromia including gaining control over some important roads. It will require a lot of security
resources from the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) to manage the geographical expansion of OLA territory and to try to
regain control over the occupied areas.
2. Some analysts are saying that Eritrea is preparing a counter-offensive from the North and from the West against
TDF/TPLF in order to force the Tigrayans to withdraw troops from the current war theatres in Amhara. Other analysts
point out that Eritrea might be preparing for a TDF/TPLF offensive into Eritrea which is anticipated to start after the
rainy season (by the end of September).
3. The GoE continues stressing that no negotiation with TDF/TPLF will be possible, unless the latter stops fighting and
withdraw from Amhara region. Both sides are convinced that they will be able to obtain a decisive military victory
within the coming months, forcing the other side to make important concessions in a possible future negotiation.
4. GoE did not loosen restrictions on humanitarian access to Tigray. While continue pledging unfettered humanitarian
access, the reality created on the ground is different – as experienced by the Delegation while trying to obtain flight
permissions for the Humanitarian Air Bridge to Mekelle.
5. On the international scene, PM Abiy Ahmed made a visit to Asmara on his way to Turkey, where he signs a military
cooperation agreement. In all likelihood the PM was discussing the
procurement of drone technology which – in the eyes of the Ethiopian PM – could hand a decisive military advantage to
the ENDF. Unconfirmed reports of Turkish drones to be deployed in Ethiopia soon followed the visit.Details:Continued fighting in Amhara and Afar
6. During the week of August 14th-20th, fighting between TDF/TPLF and ENDF/Amhara forces continued on at least four
fronts in the Amhara Region: Debark (road from Tigray border to Gondar), Sekota (road from Tigray border to Lalibela),
Debre Tabor (road from Weldia to Bahar Dar) and Winchale (road from Weldia to Dessie). Several claims and counter-claims
were made about the occupation of towns, with the overall trend still indicating a further advance of TDF/TPLF forces
deeper into the Amhara Region.
7. ENDF launched a counter-offensive from Afar into Tigray, launching attacks on the TDF/TPLF Eastern flank. Fighting
was reported near Chifra (Afar) and Mehoni (Tigray).
8. Over the past days, Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen visited several places in Amhara close to the front lines.
He is the first member of the Government known to visit areas with active fighting since the start of the conflict.
9. Several universities in Amhara Region have started organizing basic military training programs for their staff and
students.OLA reported to have taken control of several rural areas in Oromia and Amhara
10. After the announcement of its alliance with TDF/TPLF, more focus was put on the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). While
initial assessments showed some doubts on the OLA’s numerical strength and military capacities, they have made some
remarkable progress over the past weeks in controlling several rural areas and in cutting important roads. In Western
Oromia, OLA controls several the rural areas of the four “Wellega” zones, as well as the main roads around the town of
Nekemte. In Southern Oromia, OLA controls rural areas of the Guji Zone and managed to establish check points on the main
road between Addis Ababa and the Kenyan border. In the North Shoa Zone of Northern Oromia, OLA took control of rural
areas near the town of Kuyu and also briefly occupied the town itself.
11. In South-Eastern Amhara, OLA is reported to have occupied several rural districts near the town of Kemisse on the
main road from Addis Ababa towards Dessie and Weldia. OLA is also reported to be have established itself around the
gorge of the Blue Nile on the border between the Amhara and Oromia Regional States, and to have established a check
point on the main road between Addis Ababa and Bahar Dar near the bridge at Dejen.
12. While the OLA clearly does not have the same level of organization, equipment and military experience as the
TDF/TPLF, the organization seems to being gaining support among the rural population in large parts of the Oromia Region
(as well as in areas of the Amhara Region with a strong presence of ethnic Oromo). It was reported from some rural areas
how OLA enters villages, calls village meetings in order to explain its objectives and policies to the local
population and afterwards just asks the Prosperity Party administrators and security forces to leave peacefully – which
in some cases happened.
13. On August 17th, one of the smaller opposition parties in the Afar Region, the Afar National Democratic Party,
announced that it will join the TDF/TPLF-OLA coalition against the Government of PM Abiy Ahmed. It is reported that also
smaller, relatively unknown movements such as the Benishangul Liberation Front and the Sidama Liberation Front have
announced that they will join the TDF/TPLF-OLA alliance. One of the two factions in the Oromo Liberation front (OLF), on
the other hand, announced that it will continue to support PM Abiy Ahmed.Eritrea sends reinforcements – Intentions are unclear
14. Eritrean troops are occupying a strip of territory in Northern Tigray reaching from Adigrat to Shire and Badme.
Eritrean troops are also present in Western Tigray, where they have taken up defensive positions with tanks and
artillery around Adi Goshu and Humera, and possibly also along the border with Sudan. Over the past days, it was
reported that Eritrea has sent
reinforcements to Western Tigray. This could possibly have been done in order to replace ENDF and Amhara units that have
been re-deployed in Amhara Region.
15. PM Abiy Ahmed made a short visit to the Eritrean capital Asmara on August 17th – no more details as the visit was
not publicised.No more food in Tigray – humanitarian needs in other Regions are growing
16. Samantha Power, head of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), issued a statement on August 19th
highlighting that – for the first time in nine months of war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region – aid workers will this week
run out of food to deliver to millions of people in the Region who are facing hunger: “USAID and its partners as well as
other humanitarian organizations have depleted their stores of food items warehoused in Tigray”.
17. In the meantime, Western Tigray – currently occupied by Amhara, Eritrean and ENDF forces – remains inaccessible to
humanitarian actors.
18. Due to active fighting, humanitarian needs in the Afar and Amhara Regions are increasing fast. Exact numbers are
hard to come by, but it is known that several 100,000s of people become IDP’s over the past weeks. USAID made public its
new allocation of humanitarian aid to the two regions.
19. The Telegraph Newspaper on August 17th published a detailed account –including satellite pictures – of TDF/TPLF
attacks on Amhara civilians in several villages in the Kobo area between Alamata and Weldia that would have taken place
during the first week of August. TDF/TPLF published a statement on August 19th to deny these accusations and to call for
an independent UN-led investigation.
20. The Agency for Civil Society Organizations (ACSO) announced that it is investigating 11 local and international
organizations for alleged fraudulent activities. No list of the CSO’s under investigation was published. EU partners
also reported that ACSO has stopped the
accreditation process for new organizations, which might create a challenge for some EU partner organizations that were
in process to finalize their official registration in Ethiopia.Continued repression of people of Tigray origin in Addis Ababa and other parts of the country
21. During the past days, police in Addis Ababa carried out a new round of arrests of Tigrayans living in the capital.
Among those arrested was Hailu Kebede of the Salsay Woyane Part (a political party from Tigray opposed to the TPLF), who
met with EU Envoy Pekka Haavisto some months ago (as well as with the EU EOM Assessment Team).
22. On August 18th, Human Rights Watch published a detailed account documenting the ethic profiling, unlawful arrests
and forced disappearances of ethnic Tigrayans in the capital Addis Ababa.
23. Over the past weeks, there have been unconfirmed reports of attacks on ethnic Tigrayans in some towns of the Amhara
Region – reportedly even people who only have a very remote connection with the Tigray Region have also been targeted.
24. On August 18th, all Embassies and International Organizations based in Addis Ababa received a Verbal Note from the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs asking them to provide a detailed list of all security staff employed to secure their
premises/residences. Of particular concern the is request to all Embassies to provide details on the “ethnicity” of
their security staff. Several EU MS have already indicated that they are not planning to provide the requested
information to the Ethiopian authorities – this will be coordinated in the next HoMs meeting on August 24th.Second part elections possibly delayed
25. It looks increasingly unlikely that the second part of the elections will take place on September 6th. The latest
rumours from the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia indicate a postponement probably to the end of September.
26. One of the areas where the elections still have to take place is the Somali Region. The Ogaden National liberation
Front (ONLF) expressed their frustration over the NEBE’s investigations into the complaints they filed together with
other opposition parties regarding the voter registration process in Somali Region. ONLF published a statement saying
that
“participating in the rigged elections in the Somali State will be meaningless”.
27. Unconfirmed reports indicate that protests took place last week in the Western Gambella Region against the ruling
Prosperity Party over the general call for mobilization that was launched by the Government last week (each Region is
apparently expected to send a certain numbers of recruits to the fronts in Northern Ethiopia).PM Abiy Ahmed visits Ankara and signs a military cooperation agreement with Turkey
28. On the invitation of the Turkish President Erdogan, PM Abiy Ahmed made an official visit to Turkey on August 17th –
18th. On the occasion of the visit, Ethiopia and Turkey announced the signature of diplomatic, social and economic
agreements; as well as cooperation
agreements on water development and military cooperation. President Erdogan also stated that he attaches great
importance to the resolution of the Tigray crisis and offered to mediate on the border dispute between Ethiopia and
Sudan.
29. It is presumed that PM Abiy Ahmed asked Turkish support to obtain military technology, especially drones. Drone
technology played a big role in the first phase of the conflict in November 2020, when TDF/TPLF was pushed back to
remote mountainous areas of Tigray. The Ethiopian PM afterwards talked enthusiastically about this drone technology in
the Ethiopian Parliament and seems convinced that it could alter the course of the war once again. According to analyst,
the Ethiopian PM would mores specifically be interested in obtaining Turkish Bayraktar-TB2 and ANKA-S drones.
30. It was reported last week that the Ethiopian authorities transferred the management of 6 on 11 Turkish schools in
Ethiopia which used to be run by the Gulen Movement to the pro Government Turkey’s Maarif Foundation. This is still
controversial as some of the schools were actually lawfully owned by German private education companies.
31. Ethiopian State-media continue to broadcast programs with anti-Western content, targeting specifically the US and
the EU.
Sign-off – Luca Zampetti – Chargé d’Affaires