By Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana
Over the past two decades, the Asia-Pacific region has made remarkable progress in managing disaster risk. But countries
can never let down their guard. The COVID-19 pandemic, with its epicentre now in Asia, and all its tragic consequences,
has exposed the frailties of human societies in the face of powerful natural forces. As of mid-August 2021, Asian and
Pacific countries had reported 65 million confirmed coronavirus cases and more than 1 million deaths. This is compounded
by the extreme climate events which are affecting the entire world. Despite the varying contexts across geographic
zones, the climate change connection is evident as floods swept across parts of China, India and Western Europe, while
heatwaves and fires raged in parts of North America, Southern Europe and Asia.
The human and economic impacts of disasters, including biological ones, and climate change are documented in our 2021 Asia-Pacific Disaster Report. It demonstrates that climate change is increasing the risk of extreme events like heatwaves, heavy rain and flooding,
drought, tropical cyclones and wildfires. Heatwaves and related biological hazards in particular are expected to
increase in East and North-East Asia while South and South-West Asia will encounter intensifying floods and related
diseases. However, over recent, decades fewer people have been dying as a result of other natural hazards such as
cyclones or floods. This is partly a consequence of more robust early warning systems and of responsive protection but
also because governments have started to appreciate the importance of dealing with disaster risk in an integrated
fashion rather than just responding on a hazard-by-hazard basis.
Nevertheless, there is still much more to be done. As the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, most countries are still
ill-prepared for multiple overlapping crises – which often cascade, with one triggering another. Tropical cyclones, for
example, can lead to floods, which lead to disease, which exacerbates poverty. In five hotspots around the region where
people are at greatest risk, the human and economic devastation as these shocks intersect and interact highlights the
dangers of the poor living in several of the region’s extensive river basins.
Disasters threaten not just human lives but also livelihoods. And they are likely to be even more costly in future as
their impacts are exacerbated by climate change. Annual losses from both natural and biological hazards across Asia and
the Pacific are estimated at around $780 billion. In a worst-case climate change scenario, the annual economic losses
arising from these cascading risks could rise to $1.3 trillion – equivalent to 4.2 per cent of regional GDP.
Rather than regarding the human and economic costs as inevitable, countries would do far better to ensure that their
populations and their infrastructure were more resilient. This would involve strengthening infrastructure such as
bridges and roads, as well as schools and other buildings that provide shelter and support at times of crisis. Above
all, governments should invest in more robust health infrastructure. This would need substantial resources. The annual
cost of adaptation for natural and other biological hazards under the worst-case climate change scenario is estimated at
$270 billion. Nevertheless, at only one-fifth of estimated annualized losses – or 0.85 per cent of the Asia-Pacific GDP,
it’s affordable.
Where can additional funds come from? Some could come from normal fiscal revenues. Governments can also look to new,
innovative sources of finance, such as climate resilience bonds, debt-for-resilience swaps and debt relief initiatives.
COVID-19 has demonstrated yet again how all disaster risks interconnect – how a public health crisis can rapidly trigger
an economic disaster and societal upheaval. This is what is meant by “systemic risk,” and this is the kind of risk that
policymakers now need to address if they are to protect their poorest people.
This does not simply mean responding rapidly with relief packages but anticipating emergencies and creating robust
systems of social protection that will make vulnerable communities safer and more resilient. Fortunately, as the Report
illustrates, new technology, often exploiting the ubiquity of mobile phones, is presenting more opportunities to connect
people and communities with financial and other forms of support. To better identify, understand and interrupt the
transmission mechanisms of COVID-19, countries have turned to “frontier technologies” such as artificial intelligence
and the manipulation of big data. They have also used advanced modelling techniques for early detection, rapid diagnosis
and containment.
Asia and the Pacific is an immense and diverse region. The disaster risks in the steppes of Central Asia are very
different from those of the small island states in the Pacific. What all countries should have in common, however, are
sound principles for managing disaster risks in a more coherent and systematic way – principles that are applied with
political commitment and strong regional and subregional collaboration.
------------------Ms. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana
Ms. Armida Salsiah Alisjahbana is the United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of the United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and Pacific (ESCAP)