CLIs Continue To Indicate A Mixed Picture Across The Major Economies

The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs) continue to recover from the COVID-19 crisis lows in most major economies, although the pace of growth varies.

Among large OECD economies, the CLIs for the United States and Japan continue to point to stable growth, which is now also the assessment for the euro area as a whole including Germany, France and Italy. The CLI for Canada is improving steadily, while in the United Kingdom the CLI continues to point to a slowdown.

Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for Brazil and the manufacturing sector of China continue to signal a steady increase while in India and Russia the CLIs continue to point to stable growth.

Although vaccinations have begun, governments’ efforts to contain COVID-19 are ongoing and the rapidly changing nature of such measures mean that indicators used in the CLI compilation may fluctuate. As such, the CLIs should be interpreted with care.

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The above graphs show country specific composite leading indicators (CLIs solid line, left axis and the relative month-on-month growth rate, right axis). Turning points of CLIs tend to precede turning points in economic activity relative to trend by six to nine months. The horizontal line at 100 represents the trend of economic activity. Shaded triangles mark confirmed turning-points of the CLI. Blank triangles mark provisional turning-points that may be reversed.

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