10 December 2015
Press Release No: G/56/2015
UN warns current El Niño event is strongest since 1998 and will continue into early 2016
Bangkok (ESCAP News) -- The third Advisory Note on El Nino for Asia-Pacific countries, issued jointly by the United
Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) and the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early
Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES), warns that the current El Nino event is likely to be one of the strongest
since 1997-1998 and will persist into the second quarter of 2016.
The current 2015-2016 El Niño began with mild and localised conditions in the Pacific in late 2014 and has now
intensified to cover a large swath of Asia and the Pacific. The result is that the impact of the current El Niño is
likely to become even more severe in certain locations, such as central and southern India, central and northeast
Thailand, the central and southern Philippines, the uplands of Cambodia, eastern Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and many
other Pacific island countries.
The Advisory Note highlights that the reduced rainfall is already impacting agriculture in several countries, causing a
loss of income and reducing the coping capacity of those affected– especially in Timor-Leste, Papua New Guinea, Solomon
Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji. Papua New Guinea, among many other Pacific island countries, has been experiencing a serious
drought over the past several months affecting 2.4 million people alone. The Advisory Note warns that as the El Nino
intensifies over December 2015 to early 2016, continued drought conditions and water shortages may loom over an
estimated 4.7 million people in the Pacific islands.
As El Nino is a complex phenomenon, it is also likely to be linked with severe flooding in southern India and northern
Sri Lanka. This follows previous Advisory Note forecasts of excessive El Nino induced rainfall in this region, which is
also expected to continue into early 2016.
Some countries are already responding or adapting to El Nino conditions, and preparing for further impacts in the coming
months. The current discussions at COP21 in Paris have furthermore noted the possibility of climate change induced El
Nino risks.
Given the cross border nature of El Nino risks, regional cooperation is critical in supporting national efforts. Climate
hazards like El Nino cannot be viewed as discrete, occasional events, the Note indicates, but rather they need to be
addressed as long term climate risks which undo development gains, and which can be prepared for, adapted to, and
addressed in a collective manner.
Although no two El Niño events are the same, the risk patterns observed during the past can be used as a guide to take
appropriate preventive risk reduction measures to address shared vulnerabilities and risks. Early warning systems and
multi-stakeholder platforms need to be strengthened to facilitate user understanding of long-term risks, and
harmonization of risk management strategies and sustainable development plans is urgently needed.
Download ESCAP's latest El Niño advisory note here: http://www.unescap.org/resources/el-nino-20152016-impact-outlook-and-policy-implications