Optimism Abound on Cusp of 2013

Optimism Abound on Cusp of 2013

Eight in Ten Global Respondents Expect 2013 Will Be a Better Year Than 2012, Up Eight Points

Expectations of Next Year’s Global Economy Also Jumps Eight Points to 49%


New York—As 2012 comes to a close, optimism is high among participants in a new 23-country poll by global research company Ipsos for Reuters news.

Eight in ten agree (80%, up 8 points since 2011) they are optimistic that 2013 will be a better year than 2012. This optimism is mirrored by a similar spike in those optimistic that the global economy will be stronger in 2013. Even though only half (49%) agree, the measure represents an eight-point improvement since last year.

Global citizens appear to be channeling that optimism by taking their fates into their own hands. Eight in ten (80%) agree they plan to have personal new year’s resolutions for 2013, and 55% of respondents select ‘improve my financial situation’ as the item they most want to do in 2013. Only a small proportion would rather ‘spend more time with friends and family’ (16%), ‘improve my health’ (14%) or ‘travel to other countries’ (12%).

Optimism for 2013 is high…economic optimism higher, too

A strong majority of global respondents (80%) agree (35% strongly, 44% somewhat) they are ‘optimistic that 2013 will be a better year for me than it was in 2012.’ Only 20% disagree (5% strongly, 15% somewhat). This positive spirit reigns high across the world, as over half of those in every country surveyed agree with the statement. Indonesia (96%) appears to have the largest proportion of optimists, followed by Mexico (94%), Brazil (94%), India (91%) and Argentina (91%). In those countries, half or more ‘strongly’ agree 2013 will be a better year.

Optimism has grown considerably since last year. In fact, this figure represents an improvement of eight points over this time last year, driven by Hungary (+24 points to 80%), Italy (+19 to 64%), Sweden (+17 to 72%), Great Britain (+12 to 70%) and Turkey (+11 to 78%).

This improvement is mirrored by increased positive attitudes towards the possibility of a stronger global economy next year. Almost half (49%) agree ‘the global economy will be stronger in 2013 than it was in 2012’ (9% strongly, 39% somewhat), the measure improved eight points this year over last. Half (51%) disagree (14% strongly, 38% somewhat). Agreement with the statement is highest in India (78%), Brazil (78%), Indonesia (77%) and Mexico (73%). It is lowest in France (23%), Belgium (27%), Italy (29%) and Poland (29%), where less than three in ten agree.

The eight-point improvement at the aggregate level is driven by positive shifts in Argentina (+26 points to 63%), Mexico (+22 to 73%), Sweden (+21 to 43%), Hungary (+18 to 38%) and Australia (+15 to 53%).

The Optimism May Not Be Universal…

Half of those surveyed appear quite ready to leave 2012 behind them, as 52% agree (19% strongly, 33% somewhat) that ‘2012 was a bad year for me and my family.’ The other half (48%) disagrees (16% strongly, 33% somewhat). 2012 appears to have been a particularly bad year for respondents in Hungary (74%), Spain (72%), Mexico (71%), South Korea (65%), Argentina (61%) and Poland (60%).

On the global aggregate level, family troubles are undoubtedly correlated to economic confidence. Those rating the economy in their country as ’bad’ are significantly more likely to agree (59%) 2012 was hard for their family than those who rate their economy as ‘good’ (40%).

…But People Are Taking Matters in Their Own Hands

The vast majority of global citizens (80%) agree ‘I will make some personal resolutions to do some specific things for myself or others in 2013’ (33% strongly, 46% somewhat). Half (55%) respond that in 2013 they most want to ‘improve my financial situation’ and only a small proportion of respondents indicate in 2013 they would rather ‘spend more time with friends and family’ (16%), ‘improve my health’ (14%) or ‘travel to other countries’ (12%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Global @dvisor poll conducted between October 2 - 16, 2012. The survey instrument is conducted monthly in 24 countries via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America. An international sample of 18,000 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries, were interviewed. Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis with the exception of Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Russia and Turkey, where each have a sample 500+. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval. In this case, a poll of 1,000 is accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and one of 500 is accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points in their respective general populations. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error. For more information on credibility intervals, please visit the Ipsos website at http://ipsos-na.com/dl/pdf/research/public-affairs/IpsosPA_CredibilityIntervals.pdf

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