Is Iraq on the verge of civil war?
As was foreboded, the situation in Iraq is deteriorating. It was feared that the Shia-Sunni rivalry in Iraq would flare
up after the toppling of Saddam Hussein in April 2003. Saddam Hussein was a Sunni Arab military dictator who took over
the reins of Baghdad from Ahmad Hasan Al Barq in 1979 and continued to rule the country till 9th April 2003. Shiites
form 60 percent of the Iraqi population whereas Sunnis account for 31 percent. During his despotic rule of 24 years,
Saddam used every tool to crush his opponents, be they Shias, Sunnis or Kurds.
However, this tyrannical and dictatorial nature of Saddam provided the US an easy excuse to interfere in Iraq in the
name of unearthing weapons of mass destruction and combating terrorism. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed
in violence since the American occupation in 2003. Many incidents of communal violence have been witnessed in all these
years. Crowded markets, religious festivities, mausoleums, mosques etc. have been endlessly targeted. Meanwhile, the
local opposition against the American presence kept on increasing. In accordance with Obama’s election promise of
bringing back the troops from Iraq, the US ended its mission this December after ‘disposing of’ Saddam and installing a
‘democratic’ government in Baghdad. Certainly, Washington played a major role in the formation of a coalition government
and circumscribing sectarian violence to a large extent. Now that the US troops have left the country, fragile political
system of Iraq is apparently coming under unprecedented strain.
On 19th December, an Iraqi court issued an arrest warrant against Tariq Al Hashmi, the Vice-President of Iraq and the
leader of the biggest Sunni party Iraqiya, on the charge of involvement in “suspected terrorist activity.” Hearing this,
Hashmi hid away in Kurdistan. Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki, a Shia, said, “We won’t allow any interference in Iraq’s
judicial system. Saddam Hussein was prosecuted impartially and Al-Hashmi’s case will also be impartial.” He appealed to
the Kurds to handover Hashmi to the government. The Vice President Tariq Al Hashmi has denied all the charges and said,
“I swear before Allah that I have committed no crime.” Hashmi is ready to face the judicial proceedings but only at
Kurdistan region.
Of late, communal tension has escalated in Iraq. Violence has also been reported from some parts. 13 bomb blasts ripped
through the capital Baghdad on 22 December, killing 75 and wounding more than 200 people. Hashmi has claimed that
violence has escalated only as a result of the warrant against him. According to him, it is difficult for Premier Maliki
to stop this violence. He has also accused Maliki of creating this “national crisis.” Besides, a simmering political and
constitutional crisis cannot be denied. All the ministers belonging to the Iraqiya party have refused to attend Cabinet
meetings. In response, Prime Minister has threatened to sack them. Both the groups of coalition are apparently getting
ready for a showdown.
Current political situation in Iraq is harbinger of the fact that a civil war can break out anytime. If that happens,
it would have repercussions not only for Iraq, but for the entire region. Sunni and Shia, the two major sects of Islam,
are struggling to dominate the entire Arab world. These struggles for predominance lead to the eight years long First
Persian Gulf war between Iran and Iraq from 1980-88. At that time, Saddam had complete backing of Washington. When both
countries got exhausted and suffered huge losses after fighting for eight consecutive years; they agreed to a peace
truce under Resolution 598 of the UN Security Council. During his reign, Saddam enjoyed the full support of almost all
the Sunni Arab states. This backing was based on the fact that he was a Sunni dictator. But when, owing to his
belligerence, he tried to capture Kuwait in 1990, it set alarm bells ringing across the Arab world vis-à-vis the
‘danger’ Saddam posed to other Arab states. Since then, many countries of the region turned against Saddam. America took
the benefit of his isolation and occupied Iraq in 2003.
Iran is sympathetic to the Shia groups in Iraq and is said to support them actively. Hence, Iran’s role in current
turmoil in Iraq cannot be ruled out. Coming days may turn out to be more perilous for Iraq and it may witness a Civil
War. What will come out of this churning, remains to be seen. Whether the power will go to a single group as was the
case during Saddam’s rule? Or, will Iraq break up on sectarian lines and lose its influence in the region, in line with
the wishes of the West?
BY
TANVEER JAFRI
(About the Author)
Author Tanveer Jafri is a columnist based in India.He is related with hundreds of most popular daily news papers/portals
in India and abroad. Jafri, Almost writes in the field of communal harmony, world peace, anti communalism, anti
terrorism, national integration, national & international politics etc.He is a devoted social activist for world peace, unity, integrity & global brotherhood. Thousands articles of the author have been published in different newspapers, websites & newsportals throughout the world. He is also a receipent of so many awards in the field of Communal Harmony & other social activities.
(Email : tanveerjafriamb@gmailcom )
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