Politics or the Drumbeats of War
August 8, 2011
Will the political conflict in Syria turn into a military struggle?
Following the historic flight of Tunisian President Bin Ali, Arabian Heads of State, in their last words to the angry
crowds demanding their overthrow, made sure to pronounce that their country is different. Gaddafi said it first, and
soon after Mubarak made a speech where he went on about how his people were united around his "wise leadership". By then
it didn't matter what they said, because it simply wasn't true; the free Tunisians were already protesting for
Egyptians' right to freedom, and the Libyans saw themselves lined up in one Arab struggle against western-backed
dictatorships.
Now, as the situation in Syria escalates, President Assad came out to assert that Syria is different. Of course, it came
as no surprise. For the two main frontiers of the conflict between the popular Arab masses and their "leaders", namely
the realities on the ground, and the media coverage of those realities, where it is sometimes difficult to see through
the misty shadows cast upon the true picture of the situation, this announcement was predictable. The international
media and the hateful protesters demanding freedom from Baathist Party totalitarianism knew what was coming.
Thus far, given the marriage of the two parameters of the conflict between the people and their representative
international media, on one side, against Arab dictatorships, on the other, means the conflicts have been political par excellence, and any attempts to allow for another factor to play a role in shaping up the sequence of events will lead to a
dramatic change to this two-fold equation. And it is not difficult to see that this third element is foreign military
power.
Western powers played the role of a reluctant spectator, unsure which side they should cheer for. In Egypt and Tunisia,
after much hesitance, the main question that was put forward was "which side will the military be on?", clearly, urging
the army to be on the side of the people, a people which at times even included a dictator and his historic ilk. But,
for crucial reasons, in Libya, western foreign policy changed; the army this time was not called upon to defend its
fellow countrymen. Instead, foreign military intervention was yoked on as a necessary part of the Libyan question, and,
before we knew it, the brief military NATO onslaught to "weaken" Gaddafi's defenses, turned the entire conflict into a
military struggle. It became a war!
Aljazeera TV, hitherto inviting sophisticated political analysts and commentators to intellectualize the events that are
sweeping through the Arab world, appointed a special ex-Egyptian Army General to give the most specialized military and
strategic on-the-ground analyses. Now, there was no room for politics amidst the flowing stream of, we are told,
necessary nitty-gritty details of who is advancing further into the vast, formidable Libyan land.
But, what will come of Syria as the fire catches on? The west again is watching. And so is Israel, a much more important
player in this case A recent report issued by Qatar-based Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies shows that Israel
favors Assad to a much-feared Islamist alternative. Obama calls for sanctions, oblivious to the fact that Syria has been
under sanctions for decades. Iran cannot dispense of the Syrian gate to Hezbollah and Palestinian resistance, through
which much of its strategic significance is drawn. The Iranians, however, are not watching. With its great influence on
the Shiite minorities in the Arabian Gulf, where so many abuses of human rights exist, Iran can at any time call upon
the "sleeping sells" of Shiite resistance to wake up; hence, exerting tremendous pressure on Saudi Arabia, another key
U.S. ally in the region. And, only yesterday we heard of renewed protests in Bahrain, challenging the recent Saudi
military presence to quell the previous one. In the face of all this, the west will want to make a "sound" decision on
Syria, but this is a proven difficulty.
Maybe, this time Assad is right. Syria is different. But it is different to the eyes of American and European policy
makers, and not necessarily to the people carrying out the protests. Unlike Libya, the west must overstretch the limits
of politics in Syria, for any addition of the military dimension will lead to a war that might go well beyond the bounds
of the Syrian geography, with catastrophic repercussions in an already troubled region. If western powers opt for
military intervention in Syria, it will be but another testimony to the fact that, for world powers, politics is more
difficult than war, especially if you have generous funding.
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Yahya R. Haidar (Born 1981, New Zealand citizen) is a researcher in religious studies. He holds a Bachelor of Arts from
Victoria University (New Zealand) and a Master of Arts in Studies in Religion from the University of Sydney (Australia).
His academic experience includes working and researching in various central Asian countries, including teaching
International Relations in Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. His other interests involve translations of literary works from
Arabic to English published in different New Zealand journals. Yahya is currently a freelance journalist and researcher
in religious studies, writing for various Middle East and International newspapers.