UN Reports - NZ Not Heading For Carbon 'Targets'

From the UNFCCC Report of the in-depth review of the fifth national communication of New Zealand
[Scoop copy of report: nzl05.pdf]

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III. Conclusions and recommendations

…

155. New Zealand’s emissions for 2008 were estimated to be 22.8 per cent above its 1990 level, excluding LULUCF [land use, land-use change and forestry], and 62.5 per cent above its 1990 level with LULUCF. Emission increases were driven by strong population and economic growth, in particularly an increase in the number of animals and their productivity in the agriculture sector and an increase in a number of cars. These factors outweighed by far the modest improvements in the efficiency of energy use in the residential and industrial sectors and resulting emission reductions.

156. In its NC5, New Zealand presents GHG [greenhouse gas] projections for the period 1990–2020. Two scenarios are included: the baseline (‘without measures’) scenario and the ‘with measures’ scenario. Projected average annual GHG emissions for 2008–2012 under the ‘without measures’ scenario are 23.5 per cent higher than the base year level, whereas under the ‘with measures’ scenario, projected GHG emissions are 19.9 per cent above the base year level. Accounting of activities under Article 3, paragraph 3, of the Kyoto Protocol will help New Zealand to overachieve its target by 6.4 per cent for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol which is to stabilize emissions at the base year level) This highlights the importance of the use of accounting for Article 3, paragraph 3 activities (which is heavily dependent on the deforestation rates in the country) for New Zealand to meet its Kyoto Protocol target.

157. In 2009 New Zealand announced a conditional national GHG emission reduction target for 2020 (a 10–20 per cent reduction of total GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level), and a long-term aspirational target for 2050 (a 50 per cent reduction of total GHG emissions compared to the 1990 level. The national 2020 target is conditional on the extent of future international action to reduce emissions and is considered a ‘responsibility target’ – to be achieved through a combination of domestic emission reductions, the storage of carbon in forests and the purchase of emission reduction units from other countries. The ‘with measures’ projection estimates that New Zealand’s GHG emissions will be 23.6 per cent above the 1990 level in 2020. Without the effect of PaMs [policies and measures] GHG emissions are projected to be in 2020 37.5 per cent above the 1990 level. Projections show that it is expected that a net emission reduction of 12.0 Mt CO2 eq/year will be achieved by 2020 (based on a continuation of Kyoto Protocol accounting rules) – only a third of the level required to meet the lower end of the 10–20 per cent target range.

158. The ETS is the principal measure expected to reduce emissions. Currently only forestry and fossil fuel use in stationary energy sources, in transport and in the industrial processes sector are included and it is expected that by 2015 all sectors will be covered by the ETS. However, the ERT expresses great concern about the uncertainty associated with the timeline for inclusion of the major sectors under the ETS and other PaMs needed to reach the 2020 national target. The achievement of the projected emission reductions largely depends on the incentive to reduce emissions from deforestation in the forestry sector. To that end, further analysis of the opportunities to reach its 2020 target appears necessary and monitoring and evaluation are deemed crucial in assessing the progress towards the 2020 national target.

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[Scoop copy of report: nzl05.pdf]

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