Field Still Open for García’s Successor

Press Release: Field Still Open for García’s Successor

• Questions on the presidential election in Peru grow as April 10th approaches
• Country is bound to have a run-off balloting

Momentum builds in Peru as the presidential polls have liquidated the pool of candidates down to five front-runners. A new polling result released on March 27, by Ipsos Apoyo and Datum, has propelled Pedro Pablo Kucyzynski and Ollanta Humala from the rear ranks to the forefront amongst the candidates. Each candidate has an approval rating of about 20 percent, making the April 10 general elections look as unpredictable as those held in 1962, when the prevailing candidate accumulated only 0.85 percent more than the second place candidate (even though a military coup soon followed).

It is unlikely that the absolute majority vote needed to determine the victor in the general elections will materialize, as Peruvian voters are split among the five leading candidates. This will result in a run-off election, which will determine the absolute majority vote. Former President Alejandro Toledo, originally the widely favored candidate, now resembles a sinking ship after plummeting in the polls. Keiko Fujimori and Óscar Luis Castañeda Lossio have also fallen back, while two new candidates, Kucyzynski and Humala, are gaining ground. The outcome remains elusive; one quarter of voters confess that they remain undecided or are likely to change their minds before April 10. This makes the second presidential debate on April 3 of the utmost importance for the contending frontrunners.

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This analysis was prepared by COHA Research Associate Michael Reaney

COHA in the Public Arena (February 16- March 31)

Article Links

Peru’s Disaffiliation with Libya – More Than Meets the Eye, February 25, 2011

NPR

ML News

Eurasia Review

The Daily Journal

The Dallas Morning News
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This analysis was prepared by
Friday, April 01, 2011 | Research Memorandum 11.2

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