FPI Overnight Brief
August 11, 2010
Iraq
As the last U.S. combat troops prepare to leave Iraq this month, the State Department is struggling to implement an
expanded mission that it has belatedly realized it might not be able to afford. – Washington Post
The outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Iraq said Tuesday that Iraqi security forces will continue to rely heavily on
American funding as the U.S. troop drawdown accelerates, forcing them to take on more responsibility. – Washington Post
Baghdad's traffic police have a hard enough job as it is, what with blistering summer temperatures and the generally
unruly behavior of motorists in Iraq's often-gridlocked capital. Their job has just become a lot harder. In the last
week, 11 of their number have been killed and more than two dozen injured in a sudden surge of attacks in different
parts of the city, making it clear that traffic police are being deliberately targeted. – Los Angeles Times
Violent militant groups are seeking to fill the vacuum created by Iraq's stalled political process amid a drastic
reduction of United States troops based in the country, a senior American military commander has warned. Brigadier
General Ralph Baker, deputy commander of U.S. forces in central Iraq, said this week the failure of Iraq's squabbling
politicians to form a government had increased the prospects of an upsurge in violence and inter-communal strife. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Al-Qaida is attempting to make a comeback in Iraq by enticing scores of former Sunni allies to rejoin the terrorist
group by paying them more than the monthly salary they currently receive from the government, two key US-backed militia
leaders have told the Guardian. - Guardian
Analysis: The reality in Iraq may defy [the President’s 2012] deadline, because many American and Iraqi officials deem
the American presence to be in each nation’s interest – New York Times
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Afghanistan/Pakistan
The pace of Afghan civilian casualties accelerated sharply in the first half of this year, increasing 31%, with women
and children bearing the brunt of spiraling violence, the United Nations said Tuesday. However, the Western military and
its Afghan allies were responsible for a significantly smaller proportion of deaths than previously, with insurgents
blamed for roughly three-quarters of the fatalities, the U.N. mission in Afghanistan said – Los Angeles Times
Afghan President Hamid Karzai will set a deadline for disbanding all private security firms, his office said on Tuesday,
with the government working on a plan to avoid a security vacuum in their absence - Reuters
Monsoon rains continued to fall across Pakistan on Tuesday as the United Nations and relief groups said the scale of the
flooding was straining the ability of Pakistan’s government and international aid agencies to provide aid. – New York Times
Hundreds of thousands of people fled an ever-expanding flood zone Tuesday as Pakistan's leaders called for a greater
international response to what they say is the worst natural disaster in the country's history. – Washington Post
Relief efforts for flood victims in the northern Pakistani valley of Swat, where Taliban insurgents were routed a year
ago in a major government counter-offensive, are being treated as a priority by the Pakistani army and supporting United
States military helicopter crews, officials and residents said. – The National
Pakistani Taliban militants have urged the government to reject Western aid for victims of devastating floods, saying it
would only be siphoned off by corrupt officials. - Reuters
Asif Ali Zardari writes: As I return to Pakistan, I bring back tangible results that will help the flood victims in the
short run and lay the foundations for national recovery in the long run. I might have benefitted personally from the
political symbolism of being in the country at the time of natural disaster. But hungry people can't eat symbols. The
situation demanded action, and I acted to mobilize the world. Now the work must continue. I call on the generous people
of the United States to rise to this occasion as they have countless times over the last two centuries. Pakistan
welcomes your contributions, as individuals and by your government. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Middle East
It is a sign that the Iranian regime’s use of fear to silence domestic critics may be weakening when one of its most
influential hard-line clerics is publicly ridiculed. – The National
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is digging mass graves for American soldiers in preparation for a war over its nuclear
programme, according to a former senior commander. - Telegraph
Iran will mass produce replicas of the Bladerunner 51, often described as the world's fastest boat, and equip them with
weapons to be deployed in the Gulf, a top commander said Aug. 10. - AFP
Iran, reacting to the cutoff of U.S. aid to the Lebanese military, told Lebanese officials Tuesday that it would make up
the potential loss. – Los Angeles Times
The United Nations set up a tribunal to try suspects in the 2005 killing of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq
al-Hariri in an effort to deter future violence in Lebanon. But many in the country now fear indictments in the case
could trigger a new political crisis or even sectarian bloodshed. – Washington Post
For weeks, the Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has claimed that Israel was behind the 2005 assassination of the former
Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, but the evidence he supplied in a nationally televised news conference this week
failed to entirely persuade the Lebanese public and politicians. – The National
Last week's incident that killed an Israeli officer, two Lebanese soldiers and a Lebanese journalist after Lebanese
forces fired across the border at Israeli troops has prompted a change in Israeli policy. Until now, the two militaries
maintained fair working relations, despite an increase in Lebanese aggressiveness noted recently. But last week's
incident was the last straw for the IDF, now seeing its northern counterpart in a new light. From now on, reported
Ynetnews Tuesday, new operational procedures are in place and soldiers will respond more forcefully to any incident. – Baghdad and Beyond
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Israel
Israeli strategic planners paint a future for the Middle East as one that is shifting rapidly as a result of the
introduction of advanced weaponry, refined tactics by non-state military forces, unstable governments and the
strengthening of what has been dubbed the “radical axis.” – Aviation Week
Israel's most populated area, Tel Aviv, will be hit by rockets in any future war, a senior official said on Tuesday in
rare remarks reflecting the limitations of U.S.-sponsored defenses - Reuters
The Obama administration is optimistic that the Palestinian Authority will return to direct talks with Israel after
nearly two years of shunning face-to-face negotiations. – Washington Times
Israel's inquiry into a naval raid on a Gaza-bound aid flotilla in May has raised the question of who bears
responsibility for the deadly outcome, which drew international condemnation and compelled Israel to ease its embargo of
the Palestinian enclave. – Washington Post
The Israeli defense minister, Ehud Barak, said on Tuesday that Israel’s leaders were aware of the possibility that the
military interception of a flotilla bound for Gaza in late May could turn violent, although lower level military
officials had said at the time that the soldiers were expecting only passive resistance. – New York Times
The success of the UN international panel investigating Israel’s deadly raid of a Gaza-bound ship was thrown into doubt
as it held its first meeting after Israel threatened to pull out of the inquiry. – Financial Times
Turkey and Israel clashed again yesterday as the Turkish foreign minister condemned the Israeli prime minister’s claim
that Ankara had sought a confrontation over an aid flotilla sailing to Gaza. – The National
Israel should admit sole responsibility for the killing of nine activists during a raid on a Gaza aid flotilla, Turkey's
Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said Tuesday. - Reuters
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Russia/Europe
Public trust in the ruling tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has dropped to record
lows since January, according to three new polls. – Moscow Times
An ongoing tussle over the Khimki forest is raising fears that media freedoms are in jeopardy, with the police
pressuring journalists into collaborating or revealing their sources of information, media freedom activists said
Monday. – Moscow Times
Ariel Cohen writes: To roll back the Kremlin's growing regional influence, Washington should expand its
political-military cooperation with the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus; lift the de facto weapons embargo on
Georgia; and engage in meaningful efforts in the realms of energy, security and good governance. Washington should
explore sales of Patriot missiles and modern military equipment to Azerbaijan; boost support for the Nabucco and
trans-Caspian gas pipelines in coordination with European capitals; and promote greater transparency, democracy and the
rule of law in the region. The Obama Administration, in short, needs to reset its Russian reset policy to protect
America's interests in Eurasia. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
As if things in Russia were not looking sufficiently apocalyptic already, with 100-degree temperatures and noxious fumes
rolling in from burning peat bogs and forests, there is growing alarm here that fires in regions coated with fallout
from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster 24 years ago could now be emitting plumes of radioactive smoke. – New York Times
Muscovites are dying from extreme heat and smoke faster than their bodies can be stored, cremated or buried, and
Russians are worried the death toll could be far higher than the official count - Reuters
Strong winds cleared the toxic smoke from raging wildfires that has choked Moscow for three weeks on Wednesday, but
weather forecasters warned that polluting clouds could return in 24 hours - Reuters
Defense Minister Seyran Ohanian says the Armenian government plans to acquire long-range, precision-guided weapons for
possible armed conflicts with hostile neighbors, RFE/RL's Armenian Service reports. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
The new center-right Czech government looks certain to win a confidence vote in the lower house, clearing an early
hurdle as it seeks to push tough budget cuts and reforms through parliament. - Reuters
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China
China’s trade surplus surged last month to its highest level in a year and a half, while real estate prices leveled off,
according to government data released Tuesday that pointed to possible trade frictions with the United States and
slightly slower economic growth in China. – New York Times
Their weapons are brushes; their battlefields are canvases. And here in China, where political dissent often leads to
prosecution, the works of avant-garde artists can sometimes appear as threatening as a mass protest. Enter the Gao
brothers, Qiang and Zhen, soft-spoken siblings who have long used startling images of Mao Tse-tung as a focal point for
their sculptures, paintings and performance pieces. – Los Angeles Times
The death toll from landslides in northwestern China more than doubled Tuesday to 702 as crews in three countries across
Asia struggled to reach survivors from flooding that has afflicted millions of people. – Associated Press
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Defense
Josh Rogin reports: Gates was clear that his goal is protect at least 1 percent growth in the defense budget in
perpetuity, by showing Congress and the greater defense community that his department is managing its money well and
therefore deserves to receive increasing budgets even though defense funding has more than doubled since 2001. – The Cable
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The War
Chris Harnisch and Katherine Zimmerman write: Efforts by al Shabaab and other al Qaeda-affiliated organizations to
attract Americans into their ranks only multiply the threat posed by such groups. Al Qaeda and its associated movements
appear to have made the recruitment of Americans and Westerners a top priority in their overall strategy. – The Weekly Standard Blog
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Lockerbie Bomber
Politicians in the U.S. and Scotland ratcheted up pressure on Scottish authorities to release all medical documentation
underpinning last year's release of the Lockerbie bomber, a move that comes amid growing questions about the medical
rationale for freeing the terminally ill prisoner. – Wall Street Journal
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Democracy and Human Rights
Jacob Mchangama writes: If the U.S. wants to be taken seriously as the leader of the free world, it must champion the
cause of freedom at the U.N. by actively leading a coalition of democracies, confronting authoritarians, and shaming the
spoilers. Alternatively, the U.S. could decide that human rights are best championed outside the U.N. and build a
credible alternative. But sitting on the fence is tantamount to surrender. – National Review Online
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Kyrgyzstan
Acting Kyrgyz leader Roza Otunbayeva has ordered elections to be held on Oct. 10 to create the first parliamentary
democracy in Central Asia, the interim government said Tuesday. - Reuters
James Kirchik reports: Two months after ethnic riots rocked southern Kyrgyzstan, the Central Asian nation that hosts an
important U.S. air base, tensions between minority Uzbeks and Kyrgyz remain tense – The Weekly Standard Blog
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Africa
West Africa’s soils groan with gold, ores and gems; they yield cocoa and timber in prodigious quantities. They have also
been suffused with blood spilt in pursuit of the mineral revenues that are often the only glimmer of wealth in a region
beset by poverty. – Financial Times
Security forces under the command of the semi-autonomous region of Puntland in northern Somalia claimed to have defeated
Shabaab and driven the al Qaeda-linked group from an area that has been described as the Tora Bora of East Africa. – Long War Journal
After years of keeping a low public profile, Algerian Salafists -- followers of an ultra-conservative brand of Islam --
are becoming bolder, laying down a challenge to a state that is firmly secular and fighting a lingering Islamist
insurgency. – Reuters
Rwanda's President Paul Kagame won 93 percent of the total vote in a presidential election opponents said was marred by
repression and violence, the National Election Commission said on Wednesday. - Reuters
Sudan's former north-south foes began much-delayed talks this week on how to divide wealth and power, with time running
out five months before a referendum on independence for the south. - Reuters
Corruption, a small private sector and the reluctance of southern Sudanese to farm the land are stalling development
just months before the region could become the world's newest country, a minister said on Tuesday. - Reuters
The Central African Republic on Tuesday pleaded with the U.N. Security Council for help as it grapples with rebels ahead
of an expected withdrawal of U.N. peacekeepers stationed there and in neighboring Chad. - Reuters
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Americas
The arrival of a more moderate president in Colombia has opened the possibility, if ever so slight, of talks with
Marxist rebels to end a cocaine-fueled conflict that dates to the 1960s. – Washington Post
Caracas and Bogota appeared to put an end to their short-lived diplomatic crisis Tuesday, as Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez and new Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos held a high-profile summit at a Colombian port town. – Washington Times
Paraguayan President Fernando Lugo is determined to keep governing while he battles lymphatic cancer, a government
minister and close aide to the leader told Reuters on Tuesday. - Reuters
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Events
Brookings Institution
August 11
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
August 11
Hudson Institute
August 12
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
August 16
United States Institute of Peace
August 18
Heritage Foundation
August 23
Heritage Foundation
August 24
Institute for National Security Studies
August 24-25
Heritage Foundation
August 25
Heritage Foundation
August 26
Heritage Foundation
August 27
Cato Institute
September 1
Hudson Institute
September 2
Center for Strategic and International Studies
September 7
Center for a New American Security
September 7
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 13
Previewing the September 26 Venezuelan Elections
Hudson Institute
September 15
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 17
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 21
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
September 30
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 6
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
October 7
Center for a New American Security
October 20
The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights,
a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global
economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.
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