FPI Overnight Brief: July 16, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
July 16, 2010

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Iran

A strike at the traditional bazaar in Tehran continued into a second week on Thursday, spreading beyond the original gold and garments sectors and to at least two other major cities, news Web sites reported – New York Times

An Islamic militant group whose leader was recently executed by Iranian authorities claimed responsibility for a late Thursday bomb blast that killed at least 27 people, including members of the Revolutionary Guard, at a mosque in southeastern Iran. – Los Angeles Times

The Iranian scientist who American officials say defected to the United States, only to return to Tehran on Thursday, had been an informant for the Central Intelligence Agency inside Iran for several years, providing information about the country’s nuclear program, according to United States officials. – New York Times

An Iranian scientist returned to Tehran on Thursday to an uncertain future as American officials say he gave “significant, original” information about his country’s nuclear program but then turned his back on a C.I.A.-provided resettlement package of around $5 million. – New York Times

Two years ago to date, the top leaders of the Baha'i movement in Iran were enjoying the last peaceful morning they would see in a long time. While in their homes, four men and two women - a seventh leader had been arrested previously - were dragged off by government officials to one of the world's most notorious prisons: Evin prison in northwest Tehran. – Washington Times

Iran is floating the idea of switching payment for its crude oil exports to Europe from the euro to the UAE dirham, according to a report in International Oil Daily, in what appears to be an attempt to blunt the impact of financial sanctions soon to be adopted by the European Union. – The National

Ilan Berman writes: Tehran's decision to stay Mrs. Ashtiani's stoning is significant. It suggests that Iran—beset by economic sanctions over its nuclear program and desperate for international validation of its place as a global power—is susceptible to external pressure over its human rights practices… It is up to the West to use that opening wisely, to craft a human rights policy that rolls back repression within the Islamic Republic. Sakineh Ashtiani, Maryam Ghorbanzadeh, Azhar Bakri and other victims of Iranian "justice" deserve no less. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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The War

The Obama administration on Thursday said it would bolster its support to the African Union troops providing much of the firepower in Somalia's battle against al Shabaab, the Somali militant group that has claimed responsibility for Sunday's deadly blasts in Uganda. – Wall Street Journal

The former top Justice Department official whose office wrote memos blessing harsh interrogation techniques for terrorism suspects told congressional investigators that CIA interrogators might have exceeded the legal limits set by those memos. – Washington Post

Omar Bin Laden, the son of fugitive terrorist Osama Bin Laden, has said that he believes his father is still alive, although he does not know where he is. - Telegraph

Uganda can provide 2,000 more troops needed to bring the African Union force in Somalia to its full strength if no other nation volunteers, the army's spokesman said July 15. - AFP
The leader of the al-Qaida-linked Somali militant group that claimed responsibility for twin bombings in Uganda during the World Cup final threatened further attacks in a new audio message released Thursday. – Associated Press

The Shabab may well strike again elsewhere in the region. It has threatened to hit Burundi next. That would be harder to do, since the country has no Somali community where Shabab infiltrators could hide. But the group has even now succeeded in spreading fear across the wider region. - Economist

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) writes: It is crucial that the president acknowledge and act on the threat from Inspire and similar Internet appeals by radical jihadists. His administration must realize that Inspire is the latest indication not just that radical Islam is still at war with the U.S., but that it's opening up a new front to recruit fringe individuals in our country and radicalize them. The best response to Inspire is to ratchet up our law enforcement and intelligence counterterrorism programs. This will increase our ability to detect terrorist acts that publications like Inspire might foment. Certain Bush-era counterterrorism programs and tools suspended by this administration must be reinstated immediately. The Obama administration must make breaking up al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and apprehending Awlaki high priorities. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Afghanistan

As thousands of new U.S. troops push into Kandahar city and nearby villages, their focus is on propping up inexperienced local leaders...The aim is to persuade the population to defy the Taliban and back the weak Afghan government at its lowest levels -- a mission sure to be watched closely for signs of progress during the Obama administration's war review in December. – Washington Post

Robert Blackwill, the former US ambassador to New Delhi, is dear to the hawks in India’s defence establishment. His doubts about the success of the current counter-insurgency operation in Afghanistan are widely shared, as is his deep distrust of Pakistan. So his suggestion that Afghanistan be partitioned quickly became the talk of the town in New Delhi, the Indian capital, this month – Financial Times

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Russia

A year after a human rights worker, Natalia Estemirova, was abducted outside her home in Chechnya and found dead beside a highway, the Russian president, Dmitri A. Medvedev, said the authorities had identified her killer and were searching for the person who ordered her murder – New York Times

German Chancellor Angela Merkel gave a boost to German exporters during a summit with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev in Yekaterinburg on Thursday, during which business leaders signed a number of lucrative trade deals. – Financial Times

A Moscow court on Wednesday found the opposition New Times magazine guilty of defaming a United Russia deputy by writing that he “supervised” an ultranationalist youth group and awarded him a token 1 ruble (3 cents) in damages. Analysts warned that the verdict spelled a setback for free media that would encourage self-censorship – Moscow Times
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Israel/Turkey

While public attention has focused on the fierce diplomatic disputes between Israel and the United States over settlement expansion in Palestinian territories, security and military ties between the two nations have grown ever closer during the Obama administration. – Washington Post

The Turkish charity that led the flotilla involved in a deadly Israeli raid has extensive connections with Turkey’s political elite, and the group’s efforts to challenge Israel’s blockade of Gaza received support at the top levels of the governing party, Turkish diplomats and government officials said. – New York Times

A Libyan ship that tried to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza docked in the Egyptian port of El Arish on Thursday afternoon as the ship’s sponsor, a son of the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, said that the boat had shifted course because the Israeli government agreed to allow Libya to support building and reconstruction in Gaza – New York Times
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Middle East

Supporters of women's rights will hold a protest Saturday to denounce gender apartheid in Saudi Arabia. – Washington Times

President Barack Obama has dramatically cut funds to promote democracy in Egypt, a shift that could affect everything from anti-corruption programs to the monitoring of elections. – Associated Press

Unfortunately, Abdullah’s quiet promotion of social reform has not been matched by any similar move towards political change. Royal rule remains as absolute as ever, meaning just as inefficient and just as unpredictable. Although there is a sketchy script for the next act, neither actors nor audience look very inspired. - Economist

The fate of the Arab world’s two most important states lies in the hands of ageing autocrats. Hosni Mubarak, an 82-year-old air-force general who has ruled Egypt since 1981, is widely reported to be grievously ill. King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, who assumed the throne of the Arabs’ richest country five years ago but has run the show for longer, is reckoned to be 86. The grim reaper will bring change in both places soon. - Economist

As nonaffiliate terrorist actors begin to take center stage and al-Qaeda's core strength diminishes, it has become clear that America is at war with a larger enemy: the extremist ideology that fuels and supports Islamist violence. Unfortunately, the United States is not well equipped to fight on this ideological battleground, and U.S. efforts to confront the ideology worldwide have not kept pace with more successful military targeting of high-level al-Qaeda leaders. - Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Defense

The Canadian government is expected to announce on Friday that it will buy 65 F-35 fighter jets from Lockheed Martin. – New York Times

The U.S. Army is looking to ax redundant weapons, not cut troops, to fulfill Defense Secretary Robert Gates' order to reduce spending by $2 billion in 2012, according to the service's vice chief of staff. – Defense News

Louisiana politicians could face an uphill battle in their efforts to prevent Northrop Grumman from shutting down a major shipyard in a state already battered by a slew of disasters. – The Hill
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Europe

Britain and France have agreed to a joint effort to examine which defense capabilities the two countries might share and those for which they could depend on each other, in a bid to boost cooperation in Europe, French Defense Minister Hervé Morin told members of the parliament here – Defense News

One year after the release by Central European leaders of “An Open Letter to the Obama Administration,” CEPA has issued the findings of its Expert Working Group, which assesses the health and trajectory of U.S. relations with Central Europe. – Center for European Policy Analysis
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Obama Administration

Josh Rogin reports: The development community is up in arms about the persistent delays in the administration's two major reviews of development policy, as internal disagreements continue to plague the ongoing efforts to reconcile America's development and foreign-policy goals. – The Cable

Will Inboden writes: Amidst the punditry's incessant debates over whether the White House's various "engagement" gambits have succeeded, might still succeed, or have not and will not succeed, often missing has been a deeper assessment of the strategy behind the rhetoric and images of extended hands and clenched fists. – Shadow Government
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China

The Chinese economy has slowed from its blistering pace of growth earlier this year as the government has tried to ward off inflation and rein in a runaway property market, government data showed Thursday. – New York Times

Michael J. Green writes: After rumors that the Obama administration might back down in the face of Chinese pressure, the Pentagon confirmed on July 14 that the United States and the Republic of Korea would in fact go ahead with joint naval exercises off both coasts of the Korean peninsula in response to North Korea's March 26 sinking of the South Korean Navy corvette Cheonan. Time will tell, but this could be the moment that Barack Obama finally found his inner realist when it comes to China strategy. – Shadow Government
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Koreas

North Korea's military renewed its call for its own investigation into the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship in March as it met Thursday with the U.S.-led U.N. Command for the first time since the incident raised tensions on the Korean peninsula. – Associated Press
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South Asia

Pakistan and India on Thursday promised to co-operate on tackling terrorism in the latest sign of slowly warming relations. - Telegraph
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Philippines

President Benigno S. Aquino III announced Thursday that he would revive talks with Islamic separatists in the southern Philippines, appointing a law professor known for supporting the land rights of Muslims to serve as chief negotiator. – New York Times
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Africa

The oil giant BP faced a new furor on Thursday as it confirmed that it had lobbied the British government to conclude a prisoner-transfer agreement that the Libyan government wanted to secure the release of the only person ever convicted for the 1988 Lockerbie airliner bombing over Scotland, which killed 270 people, 189 of them Americans. – New York Times

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.) announced Thursday that the committee will hold a hearing July 29 on the circumstances surrounding the release last year of Abdelbasset Al-Megrahi, the Libyan official convicted in Scotland of orchestrating the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103. - Politico

A Sudanese court on Thursday sentenced three journalists from an opposition newspaper to prison on charges of spreading hatred against the country, spying, terrorism and false reporting. – Baghdad and Beyond
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Americas

In the face of an increasingly bloody and desperate battle with illegal-drug traffickers, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has launched a full-scale defense of his government's policies and called on his countrymen to step up their own efforts to defeat the powerful cartels. – Washington Times

After taking over the courts and provoking an opposition boycott of legislative elections, [Chavez] is now targeting state and municipal governments, currently the last bulwark against his rule among elected officials. By forcing them to compete for resources with pliable “communes”, he may starve them to death. - Economist

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