FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
July 13, 2010

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The War

Three coordinated bombings killed an estimated 76 people in Uganda late Sunday and underscored the ambitions of a shadowy Somali militant group that is torn between toppling Somalia's government and hitting out at other African targets in the same way as its al Qaeda allies have sought to destabilize Afghanistan and Pakistan. – Wall Street Journal

The bombings orchestrated by Somalia's al-Shabab militia that killed at least 74 people watching the World Cup finals on television Sunday night are the latest sign of the growing ambitions of al-Qaeda's regional affiliates outside the traditional theaters of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq. – Washington Post

The deadly bombings in Uganda during the World Cup final have deepened worries among American authorities about another once localized Islamic group that is spreading its terrorism across borders, using a playbook written by Al Qaeda. – New York Times

The Somali-based terrorist group that claimed responsibility Monday for twin Ugandan bombings has rapidly climbed toward the top of al Qaeda-linked organizations that threaten U.S. security, officials and counter terrorism experts said – Washington Examiner

A senior member of the Somali Islamist insurgent group al-Shabaab on Monday claimed responsibility for a pair of terrorist attacks in Uganda that left [76] World Cup viewers dead, including one American. – Washington Times

Ugandan police have found an unexploded suicide belt and made several arrests after 74 soccer fans were killed by two bomb attacks while they were watching the World Cup final on television. - Reuters

Three men arrested in Norway and Germany last week on suspicion of plotting attacks and of having links to al Qaeda were planning to hit targets in Norway, police authorities said on Monday - Reuters

Charlie Szrom writes: Defeating al Qaeda’s external operations branch and reducing the likelihood of further attacks upon the West demands a strategy that will uproot the base of the al Qaeda and associated movements network. – AEI’s Critical Threats Project

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Afghanistan/Pakistan

With American commanders pushing to expand the number of armed village forces in areas where their troops and the local police are scarce, the Afghan president is signaling that he has serious concerns that such a program could return the country to warlordism, challenging the power of the central government. – New York Times

The U.S. has poured more than $100 million into upgrading the Kajaki hydropower plant, the biggest source of electricity in south Afghanistan. And it plans on spending much more, in an effort to woo local sympathies away from the Taliban insurgency. Yet, one of the biggest beneficiaries of this American-taxpayer-financed project are the Taliban themselves. – Wall Street Journal

Pakistan's most populous province began a crackdown Monday on banned Islamist groups linked to al Qaeda, little more than a week after a suicide bomb attack targeting moderate Muslims here killed more than 40 people. The July 1 attack in Lahore caused widespread outrage; moderate Muslim organizations threatened to arm themselves and fight extremist groups unless the government of Punjab province, in eastern Pakistan on the border with India, took action. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Military leaders in Afghanistan have drawn up plans to try to persuade up to 36,000 insurgent fighters to lay down their arms by 2015. - Telegraph

Pakistan's Islamist shock jocks, who are blamed for promoting anti-American conspiracy theories on almost 100 different TV channels, could be silenced by new laws banning shows that glamorise terrorism. -Telegraph

Escalating violence in Afghanistan is now the worst since the early months of the nearly 9-year-old war, killing 1,074 civilians so far this year as international forces struggle to establish security, an Afghan rights group said Monday. However, the share of civilians killed by international forces is dropping -- and the number dying in NATO airstrikes has been halved -- thanks to restrictive rules of engagement issued last year, the Afghanistan Rights Monitor said. – Associated Press

U.S. Gen. David Petraeus lauded Pakistan's efforts at battling Islamist militants Monday during his first visit here since taking over as top NATO commander in neighboring Afghanistan this month. – Associated Press

Setting timetables to withdraw from the war in Afghanistan could encourage the Taliban to step up their attacks on coalition forces, NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said in a newspaper report on Tuesday. - Reuters

It would take "a miracle" to win the war and restore viable peace in Afghanistan under the inept government of President Hamid Karzai despite a massive surge in foreign troops, a rights group said on Monday. - Reuters

Villagers in the northwest Pakistani village of Shah Hassan Khel no longer gather to take in a volleyball match or two after a long day in the fields. The Taliban put an end to that tradition seven months ago with a deadly bombing that killed scores of players and fans. But just because locals are eschewing one of their most beloved pastimes doesn't mean they are giving in to terrorism. They are showing their resolve to prevent the Taliban from encroaching on the village by joining the local civilian militia, or lashkar, in ever-greater numbers. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Dov Zakheim writes: The Obama administration shot itself in the foot when it announced that it would begin to withdraw troops from Afghanistan a year from now. Having Petraeus and Mattis in charge of Afghan operations, supported by talented three stars like Bill Caldwell, who oversees the training of Afghan forces, at least takes the sting out of that announcement, and underscores the notion that Washington remains serious about defeating the Taliban. Equally important, having the "A-Team" of military leaders in charge of the Afghan mission begs the question of whether any withdrawal of forces will take place, if Petraeus and Mattis recommend against it. We shall see. – Shadow Government
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Iran

Chancellor Angela Merkel can warn companies all she wants to stop doing business with Iran. Yet commerce between German firms and the Islamic Republic keeps expanding, as businesses here continue longstanding relationships with Tehran. – Los Angeles Times

The Iranian government declared a sudden, two-day national holiday on Sunday and Monday, after a long-simmering dispute between President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the Tehran bazaar erupted last week, leaving one prominent merchant dead, according to opposition Web sites. – New York Times

In the latest twist in a contradictory tale, Iranian state media said on Tuesday that an Iranian nuclear scientist who Tehran says was kidnapped by the Central Intelligence Agency has taken refuge at the Pakistani Embassy in Washington. The reports did not say how the man got there. – New York Times

In a surprise announcement, a judiciary official in provincial Iran said a woman who had been convicted and sentenced to stoning for adultery had also been convicted of murder. – Baghdad and Beyond
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Middle East

An Israeli military report blames faulty intelligence and poor planning for the botched raid of a Gaza-bound aid ship, but praises the "heroic" commandos who carried out the raid and concludes that the ship's passengers likely fired first, using at least one gun the report says was already on board. – Wall Street Journal

A senior figure in Israel's Labor Party said Monday evening that his party would leave Benjamin Netanyahu's government in a matter of months if there is not serious progress toward a final-status agreement with the Palestinians. – Washington Times

An Israeli parliamentary committee on Monday advanced a bill that could lead to lack of recognition for conversions to Judaism performed by rabbis from the Reform and Conservative movements. – Washington Post

Iraq’s Parliament has met once, for 18 minutes on June 14, since the close outcome of national elections more than four months ago created a political stalemate. On Monday — another day of staggering heat here — parliamentary leaders delayed a session scheduled for this week, raising questions about whether their inaction is now breaking the law. – New York Times

As the U.S. military pulls troops and equipment out of Iraq, the State Department will have to rely increasingly on contractors to perform such services as flying rescue helicopters and disarming roadside bombs, a congressional commission warned. – Defense News

The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest opposition group, said it had so far gathered more than 21,000 signatures in an online campaign for the reform demands of Mohammed ElBaradei – The National
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Obama Administration

The Obama administration's recent move to drop rhetorical references to Islamic radicalism is drawing fire in a new report warning the decision ignores the role religion can play in motivating terrorists. – Associated Press

David Kramer writes: Clinton's trip to the region was important reassurance to countries along Russia's borders that they were not being sacrificed as a result of the Obama administration's reset policy with Moscow. Vice President Joseph Biden had visited Ukraine and Georgia a year ago, and a lot more work on reassuring these states needs to be done. But her stops in Krakow and Tbilisi were a good step in the right direction. – Shadow Government
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Arms Control

The world's nations opened negotiations on Monday on an arms trade treaty meant to regulate the $55 billion global weapons market and prevent guns from pouring into conflict zones and fueling wars and atrocities. - Reuters

The July Fourth congressional recess saw a lobbying battle heat up over a new nuclear arms treaty between the United States and Russia. – The Hill

Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry (D-Mass.) is planning to pass the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty out of his committee before the August recess, which could set up a bitter partisan floor battle over its ratification. – Roll Call (subscription required)
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China

In recent months, as the country’s export-driven juggernaut has been revived and many migrants have found jobs closer to home, the balance of power in places like Zhongshan has shifted, forcing employers to compete for new workers — and to prevent seasoned ones from defecting to sweeter prospects. – New York Times

Guy Sorman writes: The wives of both Liu Xiabo and Hu Jia have implored us to press the Chinese authorities to respect human rights. From the moment these heroes asked for our help, we Westerners have had no right to refuse it. Our duty is to accuse Liu Xiaobo’s and Hu Jia’s jailers; if we keep silent, we are cowards. – City Journal
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Russia/Spies

Authorities are detaining a 12th, previously undisclosed person implicated in the federal probe that busted a Cold War-style Russian spy ring, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. – Wall Street Journal

A sense of relief seemed to pervade the halls of government over the weekend that a potentially embarrassing spy scandal with the United States was over and the two sides could get back to work on bolstering ties. – Moscow Times

Russian security services have broken up what they described as a terrorist cell in a Muslim region of the country that was preparing female suicide bombers for attacks on major Russian cities, officials announced on Monday. – New York Times

The State Duma took a step toward severely tightening the screws on public rallies Friday, passing a bill in a first reading that would ban people from organizing them if previously convicted of offenses as minor as speeding or riding a commuter train without a ticket. – Moscow Times

Russia has completed fewer than half of the Council of Europe's recommendations on fighting corruption, though the Prosecutor General's Office contended that some of the proposals could not be fulfilled, while others are still being readied. – Moscow Times

The State Duma passed in a key second reading Friday a weakened bill that allows the Federal Security Service to warn people about crimes it thinks they might commit but doesn't carry punishments for those who do not comply. The much-assailed initial draft proposed fines and short-term detentions for people who ignore FSB warnings, but the revised version introduces no sanctions for such conduct. – Moscow Times

A Moscow district court has found two prominent members of the city's art community guilty of inciting religious hatred with an exhibition that critics called an anti-Christian provocation. But the court stopped short of ordering jail time for the men, and instead fined them between $6,500 and $4,900 and ordered their release. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Josh Rogin reports: During the Cold War, the Soviet Union had sleeper agents stationed in Washington, charged with disabling the city's electric grid and poison the public drinking water in the event of a superpower crisis, according to a former KGB general. – The Cable

Harvey Balzer writes: Explanations for why 10 Russians were living in the U.S. under “deep cover” and accomplishing nothing of real value have emphasized old ways of thinking, Cold War habits, and efforts to revive Russia’s defense capability. But these accounts have missed the crucial point: The waste of money and talent is the norm for much of what Russia does on the global stage, and it is nothing new. Russia consistently squanders large sums chasing prestige, with much of the money ending up in the pockets of corrupt officials. – New York Times
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Koreas

North Korea abruptly postponed a meeting with the American-led United Nations Command scheduled to take place on Tuesday to discuss the March sinking of a South Korean warship. – New York Times
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Defense

The Pentagon has approved the next step in the U.S. Army's effort to quickly build and field Stryker infantry combat vehicles with a hull designed to better protect against roadside bombs in Afghanistan. – Defense News
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Europe

French President Nicolas Sarkozy went on television Monday night in his latest effort to dismiss as "slander and lies" a series of accusations of corruption and cronyism in his administration. – Los Angeles Times

In an effort to put allegations of illegal political donations behind him, President Nicolas Sarkozy went on national television Monday evening and urged his embattled labor minister, Éric Woerth, to quit as treasurer of their political party. – New York Times

Anne Applebaum writes: In his campaign for the presidency, Sarkozy promised to "break with the ideas, the habits and the behavior of the past" -- yet the past has come back to haunt him, more than he could have imagined. – Washington Post

[W]hile much of the drama was played out on television, the crunch moments [after the 2010 UK election] unfolding behind the scenes — and the sudden, exasperated decision by Mr. Brown to throw in the towel — have been disclosed for the first time in the new memoir by Peter Mandelson, a powerful Labour spin doctor, which began appearing on Monday in serialized installments in The Times of London. – New York Times

Three Czech parties sealed an agreement on Monday to form a center-right government that will aim to cut the country's budget deficit and overhaul the healthcare and pension systems to halt a rise in debt. - Reuters

Italian police arrested at least 320 people on Tuesday in dawn raids across the country against the powerful Calabrian mafia, one of their biggest crackdowns on organized crime in years. - Reuters
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Sudan

The International Criminal Court's judges on Monday charged Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir with orchestrating a bloody campaign of genocide against Darfur's three main ethnic groups, the first time the Hague-based court has accused a sitting head of state of committing the most egregious international crime. – Washington Post
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Americas

The shift in April from military to civilian police control is part of a broadened Mexican government strategy aimed at curbing street violence that has killed more than 5,000 people in Ciudad Juarez since early 2008. – Los Angeles Times

Fidel Castro returned to Cuban television Monday night, his first major appearance in years, as the aging, ailing revolutionary leader held forth on the dangers of possible nuclear confrontations in Iran and the Korean Peninsula. – Washington Post

Jean-Max Bellerive and Bill Clinton write: Ultimately, we will measure the success of reconstruction efforts not in the number of days that have passed since the earthquake, nor in the dollar amounts pledged, but in tangible results that improve the lives of the Haitian people, so that in the next six months, and in the six months after that, they will be closer to the future they envision for themselves, their children and generations to come. – New York Times

Jamie Daremblum writes: Chávez is losing the ideological war. Whether or not future historians point to the 2009 Honduran crisis as a watershed moment for Bolivarian socialism, it is clear that the survival of democracy in Tegucigalpa represented a sharp blow to Venezuela’s regional ambitions. Had Manuel Zelaya executed his power grab successfully, other radical populists might have been emboldened to try something similar. Instead, Zelaya’s spectacular failure will serve as a key deterrent against Chávez-style political maneuvers. – The Weekly Standard Blog

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Announcements

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Events

Ukraine: Where is it Going and How Should the West Respond?
Brookings Institution
July 13

Countdown to Sudan's Referendum
Center for Strategic and International Studies
July 13

US Policies Toward Israel and Iran: What are the Linkages?
Middle East Policy Council
July 13

Afghanistan: Governance and the Civilian Strategy
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
July 14

Prospects for Democracy in Hong Kong
Congressional-Executive Commission on China
July 14

Export Control Reform: Security Enhancement and Economic Boom?
American Enterprise Institute
July 14

Consolidating Civilian Rule in Pakistan
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
July 14

The Chinese Colossus: Is the Middle Kingdom Past a Guide to It's Future?
Hudson Institute
July 14

Border Security in a Time of Transformation
Center for Strategic and International Studies
July 14

Pakistan-India Relationship
Atlantic Council
July 14

What to do About North Korea?
Cato Institute
July 14

High Value Resource Contracts, Conflict, and Peace in Afghanistan
United States Institute of Peace
July 14

Kazakhstan and the Modern World
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 14

Sustaining Nuclear Weapons under New START
Senate Armed Services Committee
July 15

The New START Treaty: Maintaining a Safe, Secure, and Effective Nuclear Arsenal
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
July 15

Examining the Implementation of Iran Sanctions
House Oversight and Government Reform Committee
July 15

Empowering Cubans Through Access to New Media and Technology
Brookings Institution
July 15

China - The State and Economic Growth Trajectory
Atlantic Council
July 15

Whither Stabilization and Reconstuction?: A British Perspective
United States Institute of Peace
July 15

Should We Talk to Terrorists?
United States Institute of Peace
July 15

Forward or Backwards in the Balkans?
National Endowment for Democracy
July 15

NATO's New Strategy in the Era of Financial Crisis
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

India's Maoist Insurgency
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

The Kyrgyz Crisis: Overview and Forecast
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

Transitional Justice in Post-Conflict Societies
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 16

Democracy in East Asia: An Elephant's Graveyard?
National Endowment for Democracy
July 19

The US and China: Mutual Public Perceptions
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 19

How the Visa Waiver Program Enhances US Security
Heritage Foundation
July 20

State of Play: The Future of the DNI
Bipartisan Policy Center
July 20

How Women Are Transforming the Middle East
Middle East Institute
July 20

China and India's Energy Policy Directions
Center for Strategic and International Studies
July 22

Outlook for the Energy Sector in Venezuela
Center for Strategic and International Studies
July 22

The Implications of the US-India Nuclear Agreement
Cato Institute
July 22

Counterterrorism in the Obama Administration
Heritage Foundation
July 28

Improving the Federal Gov's Foreign Language Capabilities
Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee
July 29

Skating on Stilts: Why We Aren't Stopping Tomorrow's Terrorism
Heritage Foundation
July 29

India, China, and Asia's Growing Presence in the Middle East
Middle East Institute
August 4

The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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