FPI Overnight Brief: July 7, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
July 7, 2010

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Iran

The United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United States said Tuesday that the benefits of bombing Iran's nuclear program outweigh the short-term costs such an attack would impose. – Washington Times

A Canadian man has been found guilty of attempting to export nuclear-related materials to Iran in violation of sanctions. - Telegraph

China denounced the United States on Tuesday for imposing its own sanctions on Iran, saying Washington should not unilaterally take such steps outside of U.N. resolutions. - Reuters

The European Union on Tuesday banned most of Iran Air’s jets from European airports, saying that the decision was based on safety concerns, and not because of the sanctions against Iran approved last month by the United Nations Security Council over its nuclear program. – Associated Press

Protests by merchants in Tehran's main bazaar forced authorities to back off of plans to increase taxes on their businesses, Iranian media reported Wednesday, in a sign of the government's difficulties in implementing economic reforms. – Associated Press
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Afghanistan

Britain is to announce that it will withdraw its 1,000 troops based in the Sangin area of Afghanistan, where the UK has lost about a third of the 311 of its soldiers killed in the war. In a major re-organisation of the Nato deployment in Helmand province, where Sangin lies, Liam Fox, defence secretary, will announce on Wednesday that UK troops are to be replaced by US forces. – Financial Times

Restrictive rules on firing upon the Taliban are putting soldiers' lives in danger, troops serving on the front line in Afghanistan have said. - Telegraph

U.S. Senator John McCain has identified Kandahar as key to the West's efforts to win the war in Afghanistan and predicted an upsurge in casualties as NATO and Taliban forces intensify their struggle for control there. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

A U.N.-backed elections watchdog has blocked some candidates from standing for Afghanistan's upcoming parliamentary elections over links to armed groups, an election official said on Wednesday. - Reuters

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden urged Afghan leaders to "get in the game" on July 5 as he issued a robust defense of America's under-fire war strategy - AFP

Lt. Gen. David Barno USA (Ret.) writes: Intelligence analysts sometimes argue that we have already won the war in Afghanistan twice: the first time in driving out al-Qaeda and the Taliban at the end of 2001, the second in enabling the first-ever successful Afghan presidential election in late 2004. Yet we now fight to win a third time – a reality that demands serious reflection on the costs of inattention. The price of failure – for Nato, for the region, for the Afghan people – remains unacceptable when so many of the greatest dangers to our security emanate from the rugged edges of the Hindu Kush. Today Gen Petraeus is at the epicentre of the most dangerous conflict we face – it will now be his task to lead us over the summit to achieve a success that has been paid for many times over. – Financial Times
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Middle East

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Barack Obama his government was prepared to take "concrete steps" to bring about direct Middle East peace talks, as the two leaders sought to heal ties that have frayed during the past year over the issue of Palestinian statehood and Israel's blockade of Gaza. – Wall Street Journal

The Israeli military said Tuesday that it had indicted “a number of” officers and soldiers for their actions during Israel’s three-week offensive in Gaza in the winter of 2008-9, including a staff sergeant accused of deliberately shooting at least one Palestinian civilian who was walking with a group of people waving a white flag – New York Times

Khaled al Fadala, 33, the secretary general of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), was sentenced to three months in prison on June 30 for insulting the prime minister. Many Kuwaitis believe the consecutive detentions are a sign that the government is clamping down on freedom of expression in a country known for a lively media and outspoken MPs – The National

Turkey's military and civilian leaders signaled growing frustration with the United States and Iraq Tuesday over their role in the fight against Kurdish rebels after a new attack on a Turkish base killed 15 - Reuters

Three decades of wars, massacres and sectarian killings have left Iraq with as many as a million widows, by Iraqi government count – Associated Press
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New START

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) writes: I have nothing against Massachusetts politicians running for president. But the world's most important elected office carries responsibilities, including the duty to check your facts even if you're in a footrace to the right against Sarah Palin. More than that, you need to understand that when it comes to nuclear danger, the nation's security is more important than scoring cheap political points. – Washington Post
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Russia

Less than two weeks after arresting 10 people suspected of being secret Russian agents, the federal government is in talks with lawyers for the defendants about a broad and rapid resolution to the case, according to people who have been briefed on the discussions – New York Times

The case of 11 people accused of infiltrating the U.S. as deep-cover spies for Russia has made a news splash in America and Britain since they were arrested over a week ago. But in Russia's largely state-controlled media, the story is mostly relegated to the back pages—when it appears at all. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Prime Minister Vladimir Putin unveiled ambitious development goals for the volatile North Caucasus on Tuesday, promising 400,000 new jobs, an oil center in Chechnya and ski resorts stretching from the Black to the Caspian seas. But he said little about how the government would fight against the pervasive corruption and nepotism that choke business development and undermine stability in the region. – Moscow Times

Moscow police on Tuesday charged the head of the Memorial rights group, Oleg Orlov, with defamation for linking Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov to kidnappings and killings in Chechnya — even though Kadyrov publicly dropped his claims against the activist in February. – Moscow Times

A proposal to let the Federal Security Service summon people it believes are about to commit a crime and punish those who disobey was dropped from a controversial bill Tuesday after protests by rights groups - Reuters
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China

A best-selling Chinese author and democracy advocate detained by security agents on Monday said Tuesday that the agents threatened to imprison him if he proceeded with plans to publish a book criticizing Wen Jiabao, China’s prime minister – New York Times
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South Asia

A U.S. commitment to provide India with top-of-the-line technology as India modernizes its armed forces and builds its own defense industry is likely to cause unease in Pakistan, which also wants U.S. equipment to prosecute its war against terrorists. – Washington Times

No Pakistani minority is as victimized as the country's 4 million Ahmadis, who believe in Islam but are viewed by the rest of the country as heretics. Because they revere another prophet as well asthe prophet Muhammad, the Pakistani government has declared Ahmadis "non-Muslims," made it a crime for members to refer to their places of worship as mosques and even barred them from extending the common Muslim greeting, salaam aleykum. – Los Angeles Times

Nitin Gokhale writes: This kind of urgency [found in this year’s report from India’s Defense Ministry]…is a refreshing indication that Indian policymakers are taking the need to prepare for potential conflict with China seriously. China cannot—and should never be—taken lightly. And India should always be mindful of the fact that military preparedness and trying to improve diplomatic relations are not necessarily mutually exclusive. – The Diplomat
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Europe

President Nicolas Sarkozy, who promised French voters a "republic beyond reproach," came under mounting pressure Tuesday from allies as well as opponents over allegations that he and his campaign organization took illegal cash donations from France's richest woman. – Washington Post

French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Tuesday vehemently denied published allegations that he received illegal campaign contributions from the nation's richest woman, Liliane Bettencourt, just before his election in 2007. – Los Angeles Times

Ethnic tensions ran high in northern Kosovo on Tuesday after a series of violent incidents that threaten to destablize the Balkans ahead of the International Court of Justice's decision on Kosovo's unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia. – Washington Times

The UN Security Council held an emergency session to discuss the security situation in Kosovo, after a blast last week in the ethnically divided town of Mitrovica left one person dead. Serbian President Boris Tadic told the UN Security Council that the July 2 explosion was "unprovoked violence" and a "flagrant act of terror." – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Pressure from the US and suggestions that it could no longer share secret intelligence with Britain – the heart of the special relationship – led the government to move to block any prospect of the courts revealing any information about CIA activities again - Guardian

Bulgaria “is no longer interested” in a project to build an oil pipeline from the Black Sea to the Aegean following the environmental damage caused by the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to Boyko Borissov, prime minister. Mr Borissov made clear in an interview with the Financial Times that Bulgaria intended to pull out of a three-way partnership with Russia and Greece after an environmental impact study for the project is completed early next year. – Financial Times

Prime Minister Donald Tusk promised on Tuesday to work closely with Bronislaw Komorowski to reform Poland after Komorowski officially becomes president next month. - Reuters
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Defense

The long-running fight over the Pentagon’s $35 billion tanker contract enters a new stage on Friday when Boeing and EADS North America submit bids to build a midair refueling tanker. – The Hill
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Missile Defense

Russia said on Tuesday the United States is ignoring its concerns about U.S. plans to build a missile shield with elements near Russia's borders. - Reuters

Russia is still welcome to join a trans-Atlantic missile defense shield even as the U.S. pushes to make the system operational earlier than originally planned, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said. - Businessweek
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Koreas

At a time when the Koreas have traded threats of military confrontation and cut most economic and diplomatic ties, the Kaesong complex has remained a conspicuous exception. The complex, the largest economic link created during a relaxation of inter-Korean tensions almost a decade ago, has continued to operate even after the sinking in March of the warship, the Cheonan, and the recent closing of other joint projects. – New York Times

Ten North Korean workers were killed in a rare traffic accident at a South Korean industrial complex in the North, Seoul's Yonhap news agency reported on Wednesday, citing a police source in the South. - Reuters

North Korea sent nearly three dozen relatives of former economic officials to a prison camp over the country's botched currency reform, a South Korean aid group said Tuesday. – Associated Press

Analysis: There are two divergent schools of thought on Pyongyang’s sudden return to the brutal tactics of the cold war. Either theory, if it proves correct, bodes ill for regional stability. One school says Kim Jong-il is losing his grip and, perhaps, his mind. This has triggered a power struggle, with rogue commanders and officials exceeding their authority or vying for influence by engineering a crisis. The disappearing officials reflect Kim Jong-il’s attempts to restore order. The second school sees the dynasty as secure but reckon it will resort to an escalation of conflict to distract from or justify economic failure. This brinkmanship will be used to push for talks with the US, and the resumption of aid, which has dried up from everywhere except China. A new politburo must bloody South Korea and give the Young General early victories. – Financial Times
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Japan

Japan's Democratic Party could fall far short of Prime Minister Naoto Kan's target in this weekend's upper house poll, media said on Wednesday, putting his job at risk and foiling efforts to curb a huge public debt. - Reuters
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The War

Four years after the U.S. government accused Lyglenson Lemorin of plotting terrorist acts, and two and a half years after a jury found him not guilty, the 35-year-old Haitian remains in jail, with no idea how long he will be held. Despite Mr. Lemorin's 2007 acquittal, Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials still consider him a national-security risk, essentially because he knew the co-defendants in his own case. After Mr. Lemorin's trial, an immigration judge agreed, ruling that he had provided "material support" to terrorists by having worked at the construction business of a co-defendant who was convicted of conspiracy and imprisoned. – Wall Street Journal
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Southeast Asia

Declaring that many parts of Thailand remain unstable, the government on Tuesday extended by three months a state of emergency that gives authorities broad powers to restrict political meetings and detain suspects without charge – New York Times

The radical jihadi movement in Indonesia has been left moribund after a series of police crackdowns and a failed attempt to start a domestic holy war, according to a report by the International Crisis Group. – New York Times

A 2006 peace agreement and a surprising Maoist victory in 2008 elections earned the rebels' political party a central role in governing the country. But the Maoists and the Nepalese military and political establishment have been unable to agree on a deal to allow the Maoists to govern. The resulting deadlock has disrupted life in this nation of nearly 30 million people, and caused jitters from Kathmandu to Nepal's two giant neighbors, India and China. – Washington Post

Hundreds of supporters of a nationalist group led by a firebrand government minister marched to the United Nations headquarters in Colombo yesterday protesting at the appointment of a UN panel to review Sri Lanka’s human rights record. – The National
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Wikileaks

An American soldier in Iraq who was arrested on charges of leaking a video of a deadly American helicopter attack here in 2007 has also been charged with downloading more than 150,000 highly classified diplomatic cables that could, if made public, reveal the inner workings of American embassies around the world, the military here announced Tuesday – New York Times
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Africa

Sudan closed a newspaper campaigning for the separation of the country's north and south, state media reported on Tuesday, signaling a new crackdown before a vote on southern independence - Reuters

ENDS

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