FPI Overnight Brief
July 2, 2010
Afghanistan/Pakistan
Afghan President Hamid Karzai has approved a plan intended to win over Taliban foot soldiers and low-level commanders,
according to NATO officials and an aide to the Afghan official overseeing the effort at Taliban reintegration. – New York Times
Three suicide bombers struck a Sufi shrine in the eastern city of Lahore on Thursday night, killing at least 35 people
and wounding more than 175, officials said. It was the second major attack in the city in a month. – Washington Post
The U.N.'s top official in Afghanistan says the Taliban are interested in a political solution because they know they
cannot win the war against the U.S.-led coalition or the hearts of Afghans – Washington Times
Gen David Petraeus, Nato’s newly appointed commander of the Afghanistan war, briefed alliance officials [yesterday]
about his plans for the escalating conflict. – The National
Afghan and international troops captured a Taliban district chief in a four-hour gunfight in the southern province of
Helmand, Nato said [yesterday]. – The National
Pakistan is considering a controversial new law that would restrict media coverage of suicide bombings and could be used
to quell criticism of the government and army on the country's private television networks. - Guardian
With a new commander in Afghanistan, Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.) sees a new opportunity for tackling the growing
problem of improvised explosive device attacks there. - Politico
Pakistani authorities now believe a dangerous new militant group, out to avenge a deadly army assault on a mosque in
Islamabad three years ago, has carried out several major bombings in the capital previously blamed on the Taliban. – Associated Press
Josh Rogin reports: Despite what you may have read, the top Afghanistan policymakers in the Obama administration are all
working together constructively and are on the same page, according to Special Representative Richard Holbrooke.- The Cable
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Defense
The Obama administration is threatening to veto the war funding bill awaiting a vote in the House over provisions that
would undermine the president's ability to conduct military operations in Afghanistan as commander-in-chief. – The Hill
Josh Rogin reports: Sarah Palin is waging a battle inside the Tea Party movement to exempt defense spending from the
group's small-government, anti-deficit fervor. – The Cable
Sarah Palin says: Something has to be done urgently to stop the out of control Obama-Reid-Pelosi spending machine, and
no government agency should be immune from budget scrutiny. We must make sure, however, that we do nothing to undermine
the effectiveness of our military. If we lose wars, if we lose the ability to deter adversaries, if we lose the ability
to provide security for ourselves and for our allies, we risk losing all that makes America great! That is a price we
cannot afford to pay. - Facebook
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China/Taiwan/Tibet
Reincarnations of Tibetan spiritual leaders, including the Dalai Lama, must be approved by the Chinese central
government, a senior Communist Party official said. The remarks were among the clearest indications yet that China will
appoint a reincarnation of the Dalai Lama after the current Dalai Lama dies, setting off a struggle with exiled leaders
of the Chinese territory over Tibetan Buddhism. – New York Times
The Xinhua News Agency, China’s dominant news service and the propaganda arm of the Communist Party, introduced a
24-hour English-language news channel and is preparing to open a prominent newsroom in Times Square, part of an
expensive push to increase the reach and influence of the Chinese news media overseas – New York Times
Not even the elite of China's Communist Party can avoid the regime's tight-fisted edicts - or resist seeking redress
with an old-fashioned lawsuit. The daughter of a Chinese Communist Party founder is struggling to keep her family's home
from being seized by the government that gave the house to her father decades ago for his service under Mao Zedong – Washington Times
Fear that it brings Chinese sovereignty closer has made the ECFA bitterly divisive in Taiwan itself. Its critics point
out that China has never ruled out the use of force to bring about unification, nor stopped adding to its battery of
coastal missiles menacing the island. They regard the ECFA as war by another means; a Trojan horse that Taiwan should
have shunned. These critics are right about China’s intentions—to win support in Taiwan. But there are still at least
three good reasons why Taiwan (and the West) should welcome the deal. - Economist
For all its efforts to show goodwill, [China] has made no attempt to scale down its military deployments on the coast
facing the island, where its missile build-up continues. A defence-ministry official in Taipei points to a map of the
island and sweeps his arm around to its east to show where, in the past year or so, Chinese naval forces have begun to
extend their war-gaming reach. China is still, he says, a “clear and present danger”. Greed for China’s market is good
for the KMT’s electoral prospects; but fear of its long-term intentions can still boost the DPP. - Economist
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United Kingdom
William Hague says: Put simply, the world has changed and if we do not change with it Britain’s role is set to decline
with all that that means for our influence in world affairs, for our national security and for our economy. Achieving
our foreign policy objectives has become harder and will become more so unless we are prepared to act differently. – Foreign Commonwealth Office
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Russian Spies
The alleged Russian secret agent who posed as a Canadian entrepreneur named Donald Heathfield claimed a former Clinton
administration national security official was an adviser to his company. A 2008 version of the website for Mr.
Heathfield's company, Future Map, lists Leon Fuerth, former Vice President Al Gore's top national security aide, as an
adviser. – Wall Street Journal
A federal judge released a member of an alleged Russian spy ring on bail Thursday but ordered two others detained until
trial after prosecutors said the Russian government would probably help them escape if they were freed. – Washington Post
There's no evidence for now that the deep Russian presence in Cyprus played a role in [Christopher Metsos’] release, but
the Cypriot government is under pressure to explain the bewildering fumble involving a man wanted in the United States
for reportedly operating a Russian spy ring there. – Washington Times
Former officials of Russia's spy agencies and analysts are heaping scorn on the alleged espionage operation in the
United States rolled up this week by the FBI. What it showed more than anything, they said in interviews Thursday, is
the pitiful state of spy craft in the Federal Security Service, the successor to the feared KGB. – Los Angeles Times
Juan Lazaro, one of the suspects in the Russian spy scandal has confessed to federal agents that he worked for Russia’s
intelligence service, according to US prosecutors - Telegraph
MI5 is investigating whether a former KGB agent recruited his daughter, Anna Chapman, to work for the country’s secret
services while living in London. - Telegraph
Harvey Klehr and John Earl Haynes write: We may never know the answer to how this counter-intelligence triumph took
place. Russian intelligence is probably more worried about that question than the fates of its spies. Like in those old
LeCarre novels, intelligence failures always open up the possibility that something is rotten in the organization. And
somewhere in Moscow, there are no doubt a lot of people trying to figure out what went wrong. – Weekly Standard Blog
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Iran
President Barack Obama signed into law new sanctions on Iran that, for the first time, will bar from the American market
foreign companies that work with Iranian businesses charged with aiding Tehran's nuclear program and the suppression of
democracy. The law requires the Treasury Department to cut off from the U.S. financial system any foreign bank
conducting transactions with Iranian entities blacklisted by the United Nations or the American government. – Wall Street Journal
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Ideas
Deterrence in cyber-warfare is more uncertain than, say, in nuclear strategy: there is no mutually assured destruction,
the dividing line between criminality and war is blurred and identifying attacking computers, let alone the fingers on
the keyboards, is difficult. Retaliation need not be confined to cyberspace; the one system that is certainly not linked
to the public internet is America’s nuclear firing chain. Still, the more likely use of cyber-weapons is probably not to
bring about electronic apocalypse, but as tools of limited warfare. - Economist
With 120 bloggers and citizen journalists locked up around the world, the media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF)
has decided to fight back by opening an "anticensorship shelter." At their headquarters in Paris, RSF and the
communications security firm XeroBank have created a sort of Batcave of censorship-breaking technology – high-speed
Internet with an anonymous IP address, encrypted e-mail, etc., all free of charge. - RFE/RL’s Watchdog blog
Josh Rogin reports: A House subcommittee cut $4 billion from the president's $56.7 billion request for State Department
and foreign operations money in a bill unveiled yesterday, in another setback to the Obama administration's efforts to
increase the funding available for diplomacy and development abroad.- The Cable
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Obama Administration/The War
Charles Krauthammer writes: Holder's avoidance of the obvious continues the absurd and embarrassing refusal of the Obama
administration to acknowledge who out there is trying to kill Americans and why. In fact, it has banned from its
official vocabulary the terms jihadist, Islamist and Islamic terrorism. – Washington Post
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Middle East
As the U.S. military draws down and Iraq opens up to foreign investment, China and a handful of other countries that
weren't part of the "coalition of the willing" are poised to cash in. These countries are expanding their foothold
beyond Iraq's oil reserves -- the world's third largest -- to areas such as construction, government services and even
tourism, while American companies show little interest in investing here. – Washington Post
Syrian security officials have detained 400 people suspected of links to the Kurdish separatist group P.K.K., the
state-run Anatolian news agency reported on Thursday. – New York Times
With the Syrian government poised to issue a new law on internet publishing, civil society groups, website
administrators and journalists are hoping for increased legal rights but fear they will be straitjacketed by tight
restrictions. – The National
Hamas and Hezbollah, groups that have long battled Israel with violent tactics, have begun to embrace civil
disobedience, protest marches, lawsuits and boycotts—tactics they once dismissed. – Wall Street Journal
The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, made a rare effort to reach out directly to the Israeli public, calling on
Israel’s leadership to step up peace efforts while suggesting that his people were growing weary waiting for a state. – New York Times
Under pressure from a snowballing public campaign by parents of an Israeli soldier held captive for four years by Hamas
in Gaza, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu went on national television on Thursday to assert that Israel would not "pay
any price" for his freedom. – Washington Post
US attempts to broker a détente between Israel and Turkey misfired after secret talks between the two states yielded
little but a new domestic crisis for Benjamin Netanyahu - Telegraph
Russia will soon deliver 50 armored personnel carriers to the Palestinians, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on
July 1. – Defense News
Martin Indyk writes: The current sturm und drang in U.S.-Israel relations cloaks a surprising development: President
Obama and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu are beginning to develop a constructive working relationship sensitive to
the legitimate concerns of the other – Washington Post
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Russia/Europe
The controversy spawned by a single road repair project shot to the highest levels of Russian power on Thursday, when
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered subordinates to ease traffic jams near a major Moscow airport. – Washington Post
Three months ago, Viktor Kondrashov's election as mayor of this sprawling Siberian city was widely seen as a humiliating
defeat for United Russia, which backed another candidate. Today, United Russia says he's theirs. – Moscow Times
Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic said Wednesday that his country continues to reject Kosovo's unilateral declaration
of independence, even as the International Court of Justice prepares to rule on the matter. – Washington Times
France's defense ministry will slash spending by 3.5 billion euros between 2011 and 2013 to contribute to government
efforts to rein in the public deficit, an official close to the issue said Thursday. - AFP
Europe's "opposite twins," as Mr. Sarkozy sometimes calls his country and Germany, are on different sides of crucial
issues in Europe's debate over its economic future, from how best to encourage growth to how to tackle rising public
debts. – Wall Street Journal
The wobble over the presidency has done more damage to Mrs Merkel’s position as leader of the CDU than as head of
government, reckons Richard Stöss, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University. Even so, Mr Wulff’s election
neatly sidelines the chancellor’s last serious rival within the party. Mrs Merkel’s allies are not satisfied but, for
now at least, are probably stuck with her. German voters may well feel the same. - Economist
For those who think Hungary needs a radical break with the sleaze and statism of the past eight years, change is
welcome. But others worry about Mr Orban’s impulsive and headstrong habits. His first month in power suggests concern is
justified. - Economist
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Kyrgyzstan
Dozens of Uzbek community, religious and political leaders have been arrested recently by the local police and accused
of inciting ethnic violence, rights groups say. They were detained as part of an investigation into the unrest that
raged through ethnic Uzbek neighborhoods here last month in which thousands of people, most of them Uzbeks, were thought
to have died. – New York Times
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Africa
The world’s newest common market was created Thursday when a regional bloc of five east African countries freed up the
movement of people, products and capital across borders, furthering East Africa’s dream of broad political unification – New York Times
Somali and African Union troops launched a long-promised battle Thursday against an al-Qaeda backed group in the
capital, Mogadishu, seeking to push back Islamic militants that have left the government all but powerless to rule the
chaotic eastern African country. In fighting that began early Thursday morning, 16 people died and 45 were wounded in
the neighborhood of Karan, in the north of Mogadishu, hospital and ambulance workers said – Wall Street Journal
Dressed in camouflage and hunkering among his soldiers, Somali President Sheik Sharif Sheik Ahmed appeared on the front
lines Thursday in an offensive against Islamic militants in his country's shattered capital of Mogadishu, witnesses and
government officials said. – Los Angeles Times
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Americas
Nearly two dozen people were killed in a Mexican border area on Thursday during a fierce gun battle between suspected
members of rival drug gangs, Mexican authorities said. – New York Times
Brazilians thus face a choice in October. Mr Serra would provide them with a strong but lean state, that would make room
for more private investment and initiative and would tax its citizens less. Ms Rousseff’s advisers think that Brazil has
time to bring down interest rates and taxes gradually, and that the state should promote industrial development and
redistribute income. After 16 years of stability and policy continuity under Mr Cardoso and Lula, neither candidate
offers a radical change of course. What is at stake is the speed of the country’s progress. - Economist
ENDS