FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
June 30, 2010

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Obama Administration

Calling the protection of his troops a “moral imperative,” Gen. David H. Petraeus said Tuesday that he would closely review restrictions on United States airstrikes and artillery in Afghanistan, which have cut down on civilian casualties but have been bitterly criticized by American troops who say they have made the fight more dangerous – New York Times

The Senate [Armed Services] committee voted to confirm Petraeus as the new U.S. military commander in Afghanistan late Tuesday, only hours after his testimony ended. The full Senate is to vote Wednesday. – Los Angeles Times

Gen David Petraeus, the man shortly to become the commander in Afghanistan, has warned fighting may intensify in the coming months while it could take "years" before Afghan security forces take over. – Telegraph

Gen. David Petraeus on Tuesday reiterated his support for President Barack Obama’s plan to start withdrawing U.S. troops from Afghanistan in July 2011. – The Hill

Josh Rogin reports: So, after President Obama's new Afghanistan commander, Gen. David Petraeus, spent hours explaining the nuance of U.S. policy on Afghanistan to Congress, has the confusion about the July 2011 timeline been resolved? Not so much. – The Cable

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Russian Spies

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Tuesday criticized U.S. law enforcement, even as his government acknowledged that its citizens were among the 11 people that U.S. authorities charged were part of a long-running spy operation. Both Mr. Putin and U.S. officials voiced hopes that the brewing scandal would not harm relations between the two countries, and there was no sign in Moscow of the kind of tit-for-tat action that a deeper diplomatic rift would imply. – Wall Street Journal

Russia's Foreign Ministry condemned the arrests of 10 alleged Russian spies in the United States, calling them baseless Tuesday, and senior lawmakers suggested they had stemmed from a conspiracy in the U.S. government to undermine President Obama's efforts to improve relations with Moscow. – Washington Post

The roll-up of an alleged network of Russian spies has provided new evidence that the era of Cold War espionage never completely ended, exposing what U.S. intelligence experts described as Moscow's ongoing commitment to aggressive espionage operations, as well its fondness for spycraft techniques that haven't advanced since the KGB was dissolved. – Washington Post

The White House said Tuesday that it does not expect the arrests of 11 accused members of a Russian espionage ring to affect relations between Washington and Moscow, shrugging off Russian denunciations of the busts as a throwback to the Cold War. – Washington Post

The suspected Russian spy ring rolled up by the F.B.I. this week had everything it needed for world-class espionage: excellent training, cutting-edge gadgetry, deep knowledge of American culture and meticulously constructed cover stories. The only things missing in more than a decade of operation were actual secrets to send home to Moscow – New York Times

[I]f prosecutors are correct, two things seem clear: First, that Russia’s network of [spies] has survived, and perhaps even grown, since the Soviet Union’s collapse. And second, that the agents’ assignment — collecting information about politics and getting to know policy makers — can now be achieved through more straightforward means. – New York Times

Oleg Gordievsky, one of the Cold War's most famous defectors, says Russia may have as many as 50 deep-cover couples spying inside the United States. - Telegraph

The extraordinary Russian espionage plot detailed by the US Justice Department smacks of a classic, if somewhat clichéd, Cold War spy novel. But the haplessness of the conspirators – burgled and bugged by the FBI for years – and their mundane rows with handlers over money and faulty equipment suggests the wretched amateurs of a Graham Greene story as much as the steely professionals of John le Carré - Telegraph

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Afghanistan/Pakistan

Prospects for an effort by Pakistan to broker a reconciliation between the government of neighboring Afghanistan and a violent wing of the Afghan Taliban depend on overcoming a major obstacle: severing long-standing relations between the militant group and Al Qaeda. – Los Angeles Times

Afghanistan’s attorney general disputed published allegations Tuesday that he had been pressured by the Afghan political leadership to sideline corruption investigations into some of the country’s elite, and he turned on the American ambassador, Karl W. Eikenberry, alleging that the ambassador had pressed him to bring particular cases against high-profile figures – New York Times

Plugging the gaps [in the Afghan police force] with competently trained police officers -- and persuading them to stay -- is a challenge that has frustrated each of Petraeus's predecessors. But the task has taken on renewed urgency in recent months as NATO prepares to begin drawing down its forces next year. – Washington Post

US marines have launched an operation to push insurgents from havens outside the southern Afghan town of Marjah where persistent violence in the wake of Nato’s biggest offensive since overthrowing the Taliban regime has fed doubts over Washington’s strategy. – Financial Times

A deteriorating relationship between the U.S. and Pakistan could precipitate a loss in the war in Afghanistan, according to a new think tank report. – Washington Times

Close to half of the 600 murders reported so far this year in the economic hub of Karachi have been "target killings," slayings carried out by religious groups and gangs affiliated with political parties. That's roughly double the number that occurred in all of 2009. – Associated Press

A spokesman for Afghan President Hamid Karzai says Pakistan may extradite a captured top Taliban commander to Afghanistan, RFE/RL's Radio Mashaal reports. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Jeffrey Gedmin and Abubakar Sidique write: On paper, Pakistan has already become a parliamentary democracy. It’s now “the best federal model in Asia,” as one drafter of that recent, historic constitutional amendment puts it. We in the West now need to invest in Pakistan’s people and the democratic society they are struggling to build. Let’s not allow the short-term realist thinking of the past to derail Pakistan’s chance. – International Herald Tribune

Rajan Menon writes: Washington may not like what Pakistan is doing, but given Islamabad's circumstances it should hardly be surprised by it. Pakistan has not one, but two policies on Afghanistan, one crafted for what it sees as the diminishing possibility of an American success, the other for a post-American Afghanistan. – Los Angeles Times

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China/Tibet/Taiwan

Google's move Tuesday to assuage China by severing a direct Internet link to an uncensored companion search site in Hong Kong could buy the company a reprieve from losing its operating license, but in the long run, Chinese officials will not tolerate efforts to expand Internet freedom if that threatens the regime, analysts said. – Washington Post

In a regularly scheduled news conference, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry dismissed American calls for a tough line against North Korea, most recently for the sinking of a South Korean naval ship. – New York Times

The Obama administration has forced a US maker of fibre optics to abandon a planned joint venture with China’s Tangshan Caofeidian Investment Corporation because it believes the tie-up would threaten national security. The decision by the White House to scupper the move represents the second time in less than a year that the administration has sought to block a transaction involving a Chinese company because of security concerns. – Financial Times

The young monk once again found himself in front of microphones and television cameras. It was much the same as on March 28, 2008, when the monk, Norgye, and dozens of fellow monks barged into a temple chamber where foreign journalists were being escorted around by Chinese government officials. The monks had then cried out, “Tibet is not free.” This time, on Tuesday, Norgye had a different message: he had been punished through patriotic re-education, and he had repented. – New York Times

Call it a new form of civil disobedience in China — the lawsuit. China's slow shift to the rule of law has unintentionally given dissidents a place to voice their grievances. – Washington Times

China can maintain its grip on Tibet "forever," a senior official said on Tuesday, but conceded that a heavy security presence was still needed to ensure order in Lhasa two years after deadly riots. - Reuters

China said on Tuesday that it will host Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari for top-level talks in early July, but would not say whether a controversial nuclear energy deal between the two nations will be discussed - Reuters

Daniel Blumenthal writes: Washington should not be lulled into complacency -- the cross Strait problem has not disappeared. With over a thousand missiles pointed at it, Taiwan faces Chinese coercion every day: All of Taipei's negotiations, including those over the ECFA, are conducted with the equivalent of a gun pointed at its head. We should view the ECFA as only the first step in a series of measures that will strengthen Taiwan, stabilize the Strait, and liberalize trade in Asia. – Shadow Government

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Russia

Russia saw the worst decline in democracy over the past decade than any other post-communist country, according to a survey by Freedom House. – Moscow Times

Read the report.

A veteran Russian newspaper editor said Tuesday the authorities were trying harder than ever to control what appears in the press. - Reuters

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Iran

As reports circulated Tuesday that Iran was preparing to execute a 27-year-old Kurdish activist, the campaign to save her life intensified, with a prominent opposition figure publicly urging the authorities to show compassion – New York Times

In its latest attempt to explain the death of the Green Movement's inadvertent icon Neda Agha Soltan, the Iranian regime released a documentary last week to counter the widely accepted narrative of the incident. It concludes that an unknown woman approached Agha-Soltan and, grabbing a gun in her purse, shot her. – Baghdad and Beyond

Iran said on Tuesday it would soon resume nuclear talks with Turkey and Brazil -- a tentative first step back to international negotiations after Tehran was hit with a new wave of sanctions over its disputed nuclear work. - Reuters

Iran's state television aired what it said was footage of a missing nuclear scientist on Tuesday, the third video to emerge in weeks giving conflicting accounts of the fate of a man Tehran says was kidnapped by the CIA. - Reuters

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Middle East

Broaching a sensitive subject, President Obama assured the visiting king of Saudi Arabia on Tuesday that he remains committed to closing the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, a continuing source of friction between their governments. A year after a reportedly rocky first meeting in Riyadh, Obama and King Abdullah held a brief, joint appearance before reporters in the Oval Office following lunch. Making ritual affirmations about the close ties between their two countries, the leaders said they discussed recently approved sanctions against Iran as well as the war in Afghanistan. – Washington Post

During more than three decades of dictatorship under Mr. Hussein, education, particularly the study of history, was a tool for indoctrination into the ways of the Baath Party and a mechanism to promote the cult of Mr. Hussein. After seven years of war, the task of reclaiming Iraq’s history for its schoolchildren has been hampered by politics and fears of wading into sectarian disagreements, which in [Iraq] often turn bloody – New York Times

Once banned under Saddam Hussein, private schools have flourished in Iraq since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion as Iraqis become increasingly frustrated with their government's failure to provide basic services. - Reuters

In remarks that could further strain peace efforts, Israel’s foreign minister said Tuesday that there was no chance that a Palestinian state would be established in the next two years. “I’m an optimistic person, but there is absolutely no chance of reaching a Palestinian state by 2012,” said the minister, Avigdor Lieberman. “One can dream and imagine, but we are far from reaching understandings and an agreement.” – New York Times

Josh Rogin reports: In an interview in his office Tuesday, Israel's ambassador to the United States warned that Iran might unleash a wave of terrorist violence in the Middle East in retaliation for the tough new sanctions that passed the U.S. Congress last week. – The Cable

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Defense

The Obama administration may have to rethink whether the U.S. military will need 2,500 F-35 fighter jets, and needs to craft a clear, prioritized national security strategy, a top Pentagon adviser told reporters June 29. – Defense News

The Obama administration, according to two sources, has failed to produce a classified national security strategy, leaving the country bereft of guidance at a crucial time – DoD Buzz

Major defense companies that have enjoyed banner revenue and profit for nearly a decade are publicly backing a new Pentagon effort to make contracts more affordable and eliminate unnecessary spending on weapons and services. – The Hill

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Foggy Bottom

When two young State Department officials took a delegation of Silicon Valley executives to Syria recently, they billed it as a chance to use the promise of technology to reach out to a country with which the United States has long had icy relations. Instead, the visit will be remembered for a series of breezy Twitter messages that the two colleagues sent home, riffing about how visitors can buy an American-style blended iced coffee at a university near Damascus and how one of them had challenged a Syrian communications minister to a cake-eating contest. – New York Times

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Kyrgyzstan

Baktybek Abdrisaev and Alexey Semyonov write: Over the last three turbulent months the people of Kyrgyzstan have demonstrated a desire to build a democratic society, fighting for it in their violent ouster of a dictator and voting for a more democratic political order on Sunday. Now it's up to the Otunbayeva government to deliver. – Wall Street Journal

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Europe

David Cameron will break his promise not to transfer powers to Brussels by yielding to plans for an EU "economic government" and City regulation, senior European officials have predicted. - Telegraph

Komorowski, candidate of the pro-EU, market-oriented ruling party Civic Platform, remains favorite to win, but Kaczynski's blend of Catholic piety, euroskepticism, distrust of Poland's business elite and foreign investors and his populist calls for more state spending make him a formidable opponent to beat. - Reuters

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Southeast Asia

Benigno S. Aquino III was sworn in as the 15th president of the Philippines on Wednesday and promised sweeping reforms that he said will improve the quality of life for the country. – New York Times

Since antigovernment protests here collapsed in May in clashes with the Thai army that left 89 dead, government and military leaders have worked flat out to quash what is left of the so-called Red Shirt protest movement—the most serious challenge to the status quo for this U.S. ally since the founding of modern Thailand nearly 80 years ago. Now Thai authorities are going after another target: Businesses and entrepreneurs they say helped fund the marathon protests that grew into a frenzy of rioting and arson. – Wall Street Journal

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Sudan

Two rival Arab tribes have signed a peace deal in Sudan's Darfur region, peacekeepers said Tuesday, raising hopes for an end to fighting that has killed more than 200 people since March - Reuters

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Mexico

Facing widespread dismay over the assassination of a leading gubernatorial candidate, President Felipe Calderon on Tuesday urged fellow Mexicans to join hands against the forces of organized crime that he said were to blame. – Los Angeles Times

Leaders of Mexico's former ruling party gathered Tuesday to mourn the assassination of a top gubernatorial candidate, pick a replacement for this weekend's elections, and debate whether the party wants to get behind President Felipe Calderón's assault on drug gangs or continue to criticize the war from the sidelines. – Wall Street Journal

Drug cartels fund a tenth of Mexico's economy. They have infiltrated many local and state police forces and staged assaults on army bases. Now they're violently inserting themselves into politics, killing the leading candidate for governor of a northern state only days before Sunday's elections in 12 states. – Associated Press

Mexico's main opposition party scrambled on Tuesday to name a new candidate for governor in Sunday's election in a northern border state after suspected drug hitmen killed the front-runner. - Reuters

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Americas

Human rights group Amnesty International urged Cuba to release political prisoners and take other measures to end what it called a "climate of fear" for government opponents, in a report issued on Wednesday. - Reuters

Ecuador's President Rafael Correa threatened to break off diplomatic ties again with Colombia on Tuesday over accusations that its agents wiretapped top Ecuadorean officials, including the leftist leader. - Reuters

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Announcements

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Events

Nuclear Terrorism: Strengthening our Defenses
Senate Homeland Security Committee
June 30

A Good or Bad START?
Heritage Foundation
June 30

Afghanistan: Standing Shoulder-to-Shoulder with the US
Heritage Foundation
June 30

Improving the US Response to Internal Displacement
Brookings Institution
June 30

Human Rights and Obama's Policies in the Arab World
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 30

Can Counterinsurgency Work in Afghanistan?
Hudson Institute
June 30

Nuclear Suppliers in New Zealand
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 30

Who's to Blame for Failed States?
New America Foundation
June 30

A Chance in Hell: The Men Who Triumphed Over Iraq's Deadliest City
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 30

Navigating a Turbulent Global Economy - Implications for the US
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
July 1

UN Peacekeeping and Human Rights
Atlantic Council
July 1

Voices from the 2009 Unrest in Urumchi
National Endowment for Democracy
June 1

Preventing Violent Conflict: Principles, Policies and Practice
United States Institute of Peace
July 1

Spotlight on Turkey
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 1

Cross-Strait Relations in a New Era of Negotiation
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
July 7

Ambassador Patrick N. Theros
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 7

US Capabilities to Manage Irregular Conflicts in the 21st Century
Heritage Foundation
July 8

Evaluating the Impact of New Media on Conflict
United States Institute of Peace
}July 8

Measuring Progress in Stabilizing War-Torn Countries
United States Institute of Peace
July 9

The Icarus Syndrome w/Peter Beinart
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 12

China and the Persian Gulf
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 12

NATO's New Strategy in the Era of Financial Crisis
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

India's Maoist Insurgency
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

Transitional Justice in Post-Conflict Societies
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

The US and China: Mutual Public Perceptions
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 19

The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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