FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

June 29, 2010 Afghanistan

Despite deepening pessimism back home and disarray in the top American military ranks, officials insist that the buildup of soldiers in Afghanistan is beginning to show results – New York Times

U.S. special operations troops in Afghanistan have stepped up a campaign to kill or capture insurgent leaders, senior U.S. officials say, an effort that began in March and is likely to expand as Army Gen. David H. Petraeus looks for ways to show progress. – Los Angeles Times

A force of about 700 U.S. and Afghan troops launched a major assault along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan in an attempt to destroy a growing insurgent haven and blunt rising violence in the area, senior Army officials said Monday. – Washington Post

The U.S. military has systematically overstated or failed to adequately measure the capabilities of Afghan security forces, whose performance is key to the Obama administration's exit strategy for the war, according to a new government audit. – Washington Post

The chairwoman of the House subcommittee responsible for foreign aid said she was stripping from pending legislation $3.9 billion in funding for Afghanistan following revelations that billions of dollars, including large amounts of U.S. aid funds, were flowing out of the country through Kabul's main airport. – Wall Street Journal

As his confirmation process to head troops in Afghanistan begins Tuesday, Gen. David Petraeus is expected to face blunt questions from conservatives uneasy about the course of the war and from liberals who feel betrayed by the administration's expansion of the conflict – Washington Examiner

As he hands command of the war to Gen. David H. Petraeus, Mr. Obama is trying to define what his [July, 2011] timeline means — but not too much. Even as developments in Afghanistan have made meeting the deadline all the more daunting, Mr. Obama has sent multiple signals to multiple audiences, sticking by his commitment to begin pulling out while insisting that it does not mean simply walking away – New York Times

The Afghan Parliament confirmed five nominees for cabinet posts Monday, leaving six slots vacant…Among those approved was a new interior minister, Gen. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi, formerly the army chief of staff, who will take the job that had been held by Hanif Atmar. Mr. Atmar resigned in June along with the head of the intelligence service after Mr. Karzai criticized their failure to intercept militants who attacked a nationwide peace conference. – New York Times

The top U.S. military official said [yesterday] evening that Taliban leader Mullah Omar could conceivably be part of a political settlement in Afghanistan. – Washington Times

U.S. officials and a former Afghan foreign minister are expressing skepticism over Pakistan-brokered talks between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and al Qaeda-affiliated groups, saying Islamabad appears to be trying to install its proxies in a future government in Kabul – Washington Times

The extraordinary effort to treat a single villager is one way the U.S. military is trying to woo Afghans away from the Taliban in parts of southern Afghanistan. A 16-man medical evacuation unit based in Tarin Kowt, capital of Oruzgan province, has airlifted several dozen Afghans since arriving in March. – Los Angeles Times

Military action alone will not be enough to bring long-term stability to Afghanistan and the U.S.-led coalition must hold talks with some elements of the Taliban, British Defense Secretary Liam Fox said on Monday. - Reuters

Marc Thiessen writes: The deadline is more than a tactical error; it is a strategic miscalculation that undermines almost every element of our efforts in Afghanistan. A withdrawal date undermines the very premise of a counterinsurgency strategy -- that by protecting the population, you can earn their trust and get them to help you root out the terrorists and insurgents. – Washington Post Iran

Iran is ready to retaliate if its vessels are searched and will postpone nuclear talks with major powers until late August in response to new international sanctions, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Monday. – Washington Post

A former lead Iranian nuclear negotiator has taken up residence at Princeton University, marking the highest-ranking member of Tehran's political elite to relocate to the U.S. since last year's political uprising against President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad – Wall Street Journal

Iran's Intelligence Ministry has called for a "decrease" in ties with Russia, according to Hossein Ebrahimi, a parliament deputy and a member of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad yesterday said Iran will only return to nuclear talks if the West makes clear its position on Israel’s nuclear weapons. Speaking at a near three-hour press conference at Tehran’s Presidential Palace, Mr Ahmadinejad set out the conditions for the resumption of talks with the 5+1 group of nations. – The National

The UAE's central bank has told financial institutions in the Gulf Arab country to freeze any accounts belonging to dozens of firms targeted by new U.N. sanctions on Iran, a banking source said on Monday. - Reuters

A growing number of oil companies, trading houses and other international companies have stopped doing business with Iran this year amid a U.S. drive to isolate Tehran and international efforts to impose tougher sanctions. Here are some of the companies - Reuters

Robert Haddick writes: [A] security guarantee protecting the Persian Gulf allies from Iran will not be easy. It will be difficult to define, tough to credibly implement, and contain its own risks and costs. Before agreeing to a security guarantee, U.S. policy makers need to consider these costs and risks. They should prepare programs that will increase the chance of such a strategy’s success. Perhaps most important, U.S. policy makers need to be open with the American public about what a commitment to a security guarantee will mean. – The American Russia

Federal prosecutors alleged 11 people were spies living secret lives in American communities, from Seattle to Washington D.C., sent years ago to infiltrate U.S. society and glean its secrets. In an extensive and bizarre affidavit whose details echoed Cold War spy thrillers, the Federal Bureau of Investigation claimed the alleged spies were sent here by the Russian overseas intelligence service known as the SVR—the successor to the Soviet KGB—as early as the mid-1990s, and were provided with training in language as well as the use of codes and ciphers. – Wall Street Journal

Russia finds the information on U.S. spying allegations contradictory, a senior foreign relations official told Reuters on Tuesday, just days after Russian and U.S. presidents met in Washington - Reuters Obama Administration

FPI Director Robert Kagan writes: All administrations have ups and downs in foreign policy. It's like hitting a baseball: When you fail 70 percent of the time, you make the all-star team. So when the Obama administration has a month like this past one, it deserves recognition. – Washington Post Koreas

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il's son and handpicked heir has been elected to parliament but he will at best become a figurehead under a military-led collective leadership, news reports said on Tuesday quoting a source. - Reuters

North Korea warned of military action against South Korea and the United States Monday, claiming the allied forces had brought "heavy weapons" into the DMZ truce village of Panmunjom. - Reuters Arms Control

The Obama administration on Monday unveiled a space policy that renounces the unilateral stance of the Bush administration and instead emphasizes international cooperation, including the possibility of an arms control treaty that would limit the development of space weapons. – New York Times The War

The European Union has reached an agreement with the United States that will allow European bank data to continue to be shared for counterterrorism purposes, but only after liberal members of parliament secured stronger privacy guarantees. – Washington Post Defense

As Pentagon leaders seek to free up about $100 billion in the defense budget, the leading Senate Democrat on military matters said on Monday that any savings will depend on U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. – The Hill

Pentagon leaders on Monday called on the Department of Defense's Acquisition Corps and on defense companies to make contracts more affordable and to eliminate unnecessary spending on weapons and services. – The Hill Middle East

Turkey has been blocking Israeli military flights from entering its airspace, Turkish officials said Monday, in the latest diplomatic fallout over Israel’s deadly raid last month on a Turkish ship carrying activists trying to breach the naval blockade of Gaza. – New York Times

A senior Hezbollah leader in Lebanon has flatly rejected the idea of talking to Washington unless it revamps its Middle East policy, which his group says unfairly favors Israel. – Washington Times

The Israeli commission of inquiry into last month's deadly naval raid on a Gaza-bound flotilla will summon the country's prime minister to testify, the chief investigator announced Monday as the five-member panel officially began work. – Associated Press China/Hong Kong/Taiwan

Ten years ago, China's leadership launched its "Go West" campaign, an ambitious plan to develop and modernize the country's poor western hinterlands. The aim was simple: to close the region's yawning income gap with the more prosperous east and assuage restive minority populations, particularly in Xinjiang and Tibet…But beneath the barrage of official statistics lies another reality. China's west -- defined as the dozen provinces and "autonomous regions" stretching from Inner Mongolia to Xinjiang and Tibet -- remains the poorest, least-developed and least-educated part of the country. – Washington Post

China and Taiwan signed a landmark trade deal on Tuesday that could boost trade already worth $100 billion and ease political ties between the export-reliant island and the world's third-largest economy. – Reuters

China denied on Tuesday media reports that an artillery drill in the East China Sea was in response to a planned military exercise between South Korea and the United States. - Reuters

FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork writes: Beijing’s “meddling” [in Hong Kong] has increased and is conducted with the stalwarts of the democratic camp. Unfortunately, these events received scant attention from the U.S. and other democratic countries, which once pledged to help advance democracy in Hong Kong. – The Weekly Standard Blog Europe

Latvian Defense Minister Imants Liegis urged consultation among allied countries when NATO members consider selling power-projection equipment to non-allies. – Defense News Ukraine is standing firm that any joint gas-transit project between its state energy company Naftogaz and Gazprom must have European involvement. – Reuters Australia Julia Gillard, the new Australian prime minister, may consider taking the country to an early election after the government received a strong lift in the polls as a result of the removal of Kevin Rudd. - Telegraph

Central Asia

Virtually all of the tens of thousands of people who fled ethnic fighting in Kyrgyzstan earlier this month streamed back into the country over the course of a few days last week, driven by fear of losing their citizenship if they did not vote in Sunday’s constitutional referendum. The massive and unexpected shift in refugees’ location has disrupted the relief effort. – New York Times

Violence in Kyrgyzstan could stir ethnic tension in other parts of Central Asia and encourage the growth of drug trafficking and terrorism, Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said on Tuesday - Reuters

Analysis: Kyrgyz voters who backed the creation of a parliamentary democracy, the first in a region run by authoritarian leaders, have been warned their dreams may end in factionalism or a power grab by Islamist extremists. - Reuters

Africa

The president of Equatorial Guinea, who has ruled the oil-rich West African nation for three decades, sought Monday to recast his reputation as a corrupt, repressive leader in a more progressive mold. – New York Times

Guinea is poised to become Africa's next nation to reintroduce democracy after a long period of military rule, embarking on a transition that has proved halting and problematic for many African countries. – Wall Street Journal

Americas

The three-day trial of the former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega, convicted of laundering drug money, opened in Paris on Monday. – New York Times

Former Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega demanded to be freed from his "tiny and dirty" French prison cell claiming it violated the Geneva Convention. - Telegraph

A leading Mexican gubernatorial candidate was killed early Monday in a state bordering Texas, in the highest-level assassination of a politician here since President Felipe Calderón declared war on drug cartels in 2006. The killing of Rodolfo Torre, who was seen as a shoo-in for governor in Tamaulipas, represents an escalation of the drug traffickers' war against the Mexican state – Wall Street Journal

Announcements

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Events

Gen. David Petraeus' Confirmation Hearings
Senate Armed Services Committee
June 29

Latin America and the Obama Administration: A New Partnership?
Brookings Institution
June 29

Dr. Rajiv Shah, USAID Administrator
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 29

The Sudoku of India's Growth
Atlantic Council
June 29

International Investment after the Iraq Withdrawal
Middle East Institute
June 29

Transatlantic Dialogue: Strengthening Cooperation on Democracy Support
National Democratic Institute
June 29

Democracy and Dissent: A Decade of Decline in Russia
Freedom House/Radio Free Europe
June 29

Afghanistan Today
New America Foundation
June 29

Nuclear Terrorism: Strengthening our Defenses
Senate Homeland Security Committee
June 30

A Good or Bad START?
Heritage Foundation
June 30

Afghanistan: Standing Shoulder-to-Shoulder with the US
Heritage Foundation
June 30

Improving the US Response to Internal Displacement
Brookings Institution
June 30

Human Rights and Obama's Policies in the Arab World
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 30

Can Counterinsurgency Work in Afghanistan?
Hudson Institute
June 30

Nuclear Suppliers in New Zealand
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 30

Who's to Blame for Failed States?
New America Foundation
June 30

A Chance in Hell: The Men Who Triumphed Over Iraq's Deadliest City
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 30

Navigating a Turbulent Global Economy - Implications for the US
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
July 1

UN Peacekeeping and Human Rights
Atlantic Council
July 1

Voices from the 2009 Unrest in Urumchi
National Endowment for Democracy
June 1

Preventing Violent Conflict: Principles, Policies and Practice
United States Institute of Peace
July 1

Spotlight on Turkey
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 1

Cross-Strait Relations in a New Era of Negotiation
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
July 7

Ambassador Patrick N. Theros
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 7

US Capabilities to Manage Irregular Conflicts in the 21st Century
Heritage Foundation
July 8

Evaluating the Impact of New Media on Conflict
United States Institute of Peace
}July 8

Measuring Progress in Stabilizing War-Torn Countries
United States Institute of Peace
July 9

The Icarus Syndrome w/Peter Beinart
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
July 12

China and the Persian Gulf
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 12

NATO's New Strategy in the Era of Financial Crisis
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

India's Maoist Insurgency
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

Transitional Justice in Post-Conflict Societies
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

The US and China: Mutual Public Perceptions
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 19 The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative , which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org .

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