FPI Overnight Brief: June 25, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
June 25, 2010
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Obama Administration

President Obama said Thursday that there will be no additional changes for now in his leadership team on Afghanistan, but that he will be "insisting on unity of purpose" and "paying very close attention" to its performance. – Washington Post

The messy departure of Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal is likely to make the Obama administration’s internal debates over Afghanistan even more pointed, giving the military a powerful advocate for staying the course as it prepares for a reckoning with more impatient officials like Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. – New York Times

By ousting his top general in Afghanistan, President Obama may have solved the biggest personnel problem in conducting the war. But he made it clear that there are others, and hinted that more heads could roll. So when the president said he would tolerate debate but not division, some saw it as a message aimed straight at his special envoy for the region, Richard C. Holbrooke. – Los Angeles Times

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, who had sponsored Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal as commander in Afghanistan, expressed profound disappointment in his judgment on Thursday — tempered with thanks for his years in combat — after he was fired from the post. The dismissal followed publication of a profile of the four-star general in Rolling Stone that quoted him and his aides disparaging other officials – New York Times

As President Barack Obama reaffirms his Afghanistan policy, he’s also emboldening critics in Congress who think he should use a shakeup in commanding generals to change the course of what they believe is an intractable war. - Politico
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Afghanistan

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday that the Afghan surge has been more difficult and is going more slowly than the Pentagon had originally anticipated, but the appointment of Gen. David Petraeus as commander had allayed his concerns that a shake-up in Kabul would disrupt the war effort. – Wall Street Journal

While no one said he was leaving, there was little doubt in anyone’s mind that most of those closest to Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, who was fired on Wednesday by President Obama, would leave with him. That would be partly in a show of solidarity and partly because the new commander, Gen. David H. Petraeus, would not request their services – New York Times

Gen David Petraeus, the new US commander in Afghanistan, is to review the controversial doctrine of "courageous restraint", according to Pentagon sources. - Telegraph

By now, Marja, in strategic Helmand province, was supposed to have been a showpiece of what a judicious combination of Western military might and a ramping up of Afghan government services could accomplish. Instead, it has become something of a cautionary tale. The plan to remake the town is emblematic of the counterinsurgency strategy laid out by Army Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal and expected to be pursued by Petraeus, who could arrive in Afghanistan as soon as next week, after Senate confirmation. – Los Angeles Times

Many Afghans are concerned that the U.S.-led war against the Taliban may be hampered because the incoming commander of coalition forces, Gen. David Petraeus, will need time to understand Afghanistan – Wall Street Journal

Omid Nouripour's effort to keep German troops in Afghanistan is an uphill battle, and he knows it. Not only must the Berlin lawmaker fight his country's aversion to an increasingly bloody war once billed as a peacekeeping effort, but he must buck his own Green Party's antiwar platform. – Los Angeles Times

The situation is grim. To stand even a moderate chance of success, General McChrystal’s counter-insurgency strategy would require more time than American and European governments are prepared to give it..Perhaps the best that can be hoped for NATO’s current operations is to weaken the militants sufficiently to bring them to the table. That near-impossible task now falls to the impressive, persistent, but human General Petraeus. - Economist

Charles Krauthammer writes: What the Afghans hear from the current American president is a surge with an expiration date. An Afghan facing the life-or-death choice of which side to support can be forgiven for thinking that what Obama says is what Obama intends. That may be wrong, but if so, why doesn't Obama dispel that false impression? He doesn't even have to repudiate the July 2011 date, he simply but explicitly has to say: July 2011 is the target date, but only if conditions on the ground permit. Obama has had every opportunity every single day to say that. He has not…If you were Karzai, or a peasant in Marja, you'd be hedging your bets too. – Washington Post
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Russia

With recent accords on national security behind them, President Obama and President Dmitri A. Medvedev of Russia engaged in a bit of economic summitry on Thursday, with Mr. Obama pushing for more exports to Russia and Mr. Medvedev seeking more American business investment, especially in technology – New York Times

President Barack Obama welcomed Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to the White House on Thursday, boasting that the two men have reset their countries' relationship in a way unthinkable when Obama took office. – The Hill

Read the transcript of Medvedev and Obama’s Joint Press Conference.

Russia on Thursday hailed a decision by the United States to designate the Caucasian insurgent leader Doku Umarov a terrorist, a step announced on the eve of President Dmitri A. Medvedev’s visit to the White House – New York Times

Russian natural gas started flowing back through pipelines into Europe at normal levels on Thursday, as Belarus and Russia announced a tentative truce in their four-day energy dispute – New York Times

David Kramer writes: U.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first. – Shadow Government
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Iran

Congress voted overwhelmingly Thursday to impose sweeping economic sanctions on Iran to increase pressure on the regime in Tehran as it continues its nuclear program. – New York Times

A stalled plan for Iran to part with some of its nuclear material could yet succeed because Tehran still cannot make the reactor fuel it would get in return, [the Institute for Science and International Security] said Thursday - Reuters
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South Asia

Pakistan is exploiting the troubled United States military effort in Afghanistan to drive home a political settlement with Afghanistan that would give Pakistan important influence there but is likely to undermine United States interests, Pakistani and American officials said – New York Times

As India tries to woo foreign investors and burnish its standing as Asia's third-largest economy, its industrial endeavors face resistance, mostly from villagers reluctant to part with land their families have tilled for decades. Current delays in land acquisition for industrial projects threaten to sink investments worth $100 billion to India in the near term, according to a recent study by the Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India, one of the country's largest business groups – Associated Press

By any measure, Pakistan is a shocker. Its proliferation record would make the serial nuclear mischief-makers of North Korea blush. If the Chinese reactor deal goes ahead, the damage will be huge: beyond just stoking the already alarming nuclear rivalry between Pakistan and India. - Economist
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Middle East

Israel's president and elder statesman, Shimon Peres, urged the United States and other world powers this week to engage with Hamas in order to persuade the Islamist group to renounce violence and prepare for peace with Israel. – Washington Post

Human-rights campaigners in Syria have appealed for the immediate release of all political prisoners and an end to emergency laws following the sentencing of a prominent activist to three years in jail for “spreading false information” and “weakening national sentiment”. – The National

Leaders from several of Egypt’s disparate political opposition movements were planning to attend a silent vigil in Alexandria this evening to honour a young businessman whose death in police custody early this month has sparked outrage and protests from human rights and pro-democracy activists. Mohammed ElBaradei, the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and a campaigner for political reform in Egypt, organised the vigil with his National Movement for Change, an organisation that is pushing for constitutional amendments to expand political liberties. – The National

Michael Rubin writes: Today Turkey is an Islamic republic whose government saw fit to facilitate the May 31 flotilla raid on Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Turkey is now more aligned to Iran than to the democracies of Europe. Whereas Iran’s Islamic revolution shocked the world with its suddenness in 1979, Turkey’s Islamic revolution has been so slow and deliberate as to pass almost unnoticed. Nevertheless, the Islamic Republic of Turkey is a reality—and a danger. - Commentary
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The War

Dozens of Americans have joined terrorist groups and are posing a threat to the United States and its interests abroad, the president's most senior adviser on counterterrorism and homeland security said Thursday. – Washington Times

Indonesia’s elite anti-terror squad arrested the country’s most-wanted man and two of his aides in a series of coordinated raids on Java island, police said. Another suspected militant was killed the shootout. – The National

Yemeni police clashed with suspected al Qaeda militants in Aden on Friday, arresting several, as they searched for a group that had attacked an intelligence building there, a security official said. - Reuters

Local officials say that Islamist insurgents, fighting a lingering conflict with Algeria's security forces, are targeting the town's small army of unemployed young men and persuading some of them to join their ranks. - Reuters
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Defense

A growing number of centrist Democrats say they’re open to trimming Pentagon spending in the face of record budget deficits and mounting public debt. – The Hill

Pentagon leaders, the military services and defense contractors must work together to cut bureaucratic bloat and unnecessary programs, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Thursday. – The Hill

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Thursday said she would try to pass the Afghanistan war spending bill before the July recess, a piece of legislation that may be split into two to ease passage. - Politico

Jim Talent writes: In short, everyone in authority is focused on short-term budgetary and political concerns rather than strategic reality. The cost of that shortsightedness will eventually be paid — but not by the political officials who now have the authority. It will be paid by the men and women of America’s military, by their families, and by an American public that increasingly, and rightly, suspects that the government is failing to defend their country. – National Review Online
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China

A prominent Tibetan businessman and philanthropist who was lauded by Chinese officials for his environmental work has been sentenced to 15 years in prison on charges that he traded in looted relics more than a decade ago, his lawyer said Thursday night – New York Times

For years, Chinese leaders looked to the millions of poor workers from the country’s interior as the engine of a roaring export economy. They would move to coastal provinces, toil in factories and churn out the world’s household goods. These days, the workers are crucial for China’s economy in another way: They must start buying the very products they manufacture, spending their paychecks on lipstick and lingerie, plastic lawn chairs and plasma television sets. Officials see them as the linchpin of China’s move away from a lopsided economic model that relies too heavily on foreign consumption. – New York Times

At least 300 Uighurs are thought to have fled China since the July [2009] unrest, according to the World Uyghur Congress. Some slipped illegally into neighboring countries in Central Asia, which regularly extradite Uighurs back to China. Others with more money...paid thousands of dollars to criminal gangs and smugglers for plane tickets and visas – Associated Press

Hong Kong on Friday passed an electoral reform package, winning over enough skeptical opposition lawmakers to back changes that could pave the way for universal suffrage in 2017 as promised by Beijing. - Reuters

Editorial: The announcement by China’s central bank that it would stop pegging its currency to the dollar could be a watershed moment for the global economy — if China really allows the value of the currency to rise. – New York Times

Kathleen McLaughlin writes: China's handling of Xinjiang could offer a glimpse of future media-control policies. The new approach -- allowing some access to information while blocking most -- seems to have worked in both hiding facts and placating some critics. – Foreign Policy
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Missile Defense

Daniel Goure writes: The administration will undoubtedly take the same steps as did its predecessor with respect to the old third site concept. It will talk, lecture and explain all in an effort to demonstrate something that the Russians already know, which is that such a system cannot possibly endanger their strategic deterrent. Russia’s objections are based on a fundamental desire that Europe not be protected against ballistic missiles. However, given the threat from Iran, Europe must be defended. Ultimately, on this issue the administration will have to choose between our European allies and our new Russian “friend.” – Early Warning
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G-20

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has told the BBC that the world "can not depend as much on the US economy as it did in the past". In an exclusive interview, Mr Geithner said that other major economies would have to grow more for the global economy to prosper. – BBC News
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Kyrgyzstan

Kyrgyzstan’s interim government, which has struggled to control ethnic violence and even apparently its own police and military, has asked the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to send in an international police force, akin to those deployed in the former Yugoslavia. – New York Times

Kyrgyzstan is a weak link in Central Asia that could be exploited by extremists determined to create an Islamic caliphate in the region bordering Afghanistan, the head of the country's security service said on Thursday. - Reuters

A top U.N. official warned the Security Council on Thursday that ethnic tensions in Kyrgyzstan continue, along with fears that there could be another wave of violence in the strategic Central Asian state. - Reuters

Kyrgyz soldiers voted on Friday in the first stage of a referendum to create the first parliamentary democracy in Central Asia, two weeks after ethnic clashes killed more than 250 people. - Reuters
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Australia

Prime Minister Julia Gillard met her senior ministers on Friday and fended off criticism that she acted ruthlessly by seizing the leadership in a party revolt that shocked the nation. A day after succeeding her former boss, Kevin Rudd, Ms. Gillard said she had already begun reworking some of her predecessor’s unpopular policies and intended “to get the government back on track.” – New York Times
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Koreas

North Korea has issued a no-sail warning off the west coast of the Korean Peninsula in what South Korean officials said on Friday was likely part of routine military drills, amid heightened antagonism between the rivals. - Reuters
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Europe

Moldova has ordered Russia to withdraw all its troops from the separatist Transdniester region, where they've been stationed for two decades. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Americas

Christopher Coke, a reputed gang leader from Jamaica accused of running a major smuggling operation of drugs and guns in the United States, arrived in New York on Thursday evening after waiving his right to an extradition hearing in Jamaican courts. – New York Times

While security requires constant vigilance, it is a sign of how much Colombia has changed that Mr Santos may be judged primarily on his management of the economy. - Economist

Jamie Daremblum writes: Chávez had hoped to dissuade Colombians from electing a conservative security hawk. Yet his remarks backfired completely...His attacks on Santos reminded Colombians of the radical autocracy that sits next door—a government that has sponsored drug-trafficking terrorists in Colombia, has massed troops along the border, and has repeatedly raised the possibility of war. – The Weekly Standard Blog

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