FPI Overnight Brief - June 22

FPI Overnight Brief
June 22, 2010 ________________________________________ Special Announcement
Tomorrow afternoon, the Foreign Policy Initiative will host an event assessing the arms control, geopolitical, and human rights aspects of the Obama Administration's "reset" of relations with the Russian Federation. Speakers include Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), FPI Director Eric Edelman, Stephen Rademaker, David Kramer, and Charles Kupchan. For more information, and to RSVP, please visit FPI's website.

________________________________________ Afghanistan

General Stanley McChrystal, the top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, has said that completion of the alliance’s next military operation in the south of the country will be delayed for several months as it learns from mistakes made in February’s major military engagement in central Helmand – Financial Times The U.S. military is funding a massive protection racket in Afghanistan, indirectly paying to warlords, corrupt public officials and the Taliban to ensure safe passage of its supply convoys throughout the country, according to congressional investigators. – Washington Post

The last several years of poverty, conflict and widely available opium are taking a toll on the Afghan population, with roughly 800,000 Afghan adults now using opium, heroin and other illicit drugs, a jump from five years ago, according to a study by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. – New York Times

After nearly nine years in Afghanistan, U.S. and NATO leaders still do not adequately understand or communicate with the Afghan people, according to classified coalition assessments. That cultural disconnect, along with the West's continued support for a corrupt central government in Kabul, has made it easy for the Taliban to recruit insurgents and prevent NATO from making significant gains, according to classified coalition assessments. – Washington Examiner

Defense Secretary Robert Gates on Sunday contradicted Vice President Joe Biden’s pledge that in July 2011 “a whole lot” of U.S. forces will be leaving Afghanistan. – Politico Live

Pul-e-Khumri, the capital of Baghlan province, lies on the main highway linking Kabul to northern Afghanistan and central Asia. For years this was a peaceful area, far from the violence and uncertainty of the south and east…Now Baghlan is at the heart of a struggle for control of northern Afghanistan. Who wins the battle will not only decide the destiny of the residents here, it could ultimately shape the future of much of the region. – The National

John Nagl writes: We waited until last year to give the Afghan conflict the resources that success will require. While we focused on Iraq, the Taliban regained strength and reinstituted their previous reign of terror in much of southern and eastern Afghanistan. But with the war in Iraq winding down and a determined international focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan, it is possible over the next five years to build an Afghan government that can outperform the Taliban and an Afghan Army that can outfight it. – NY Daily News

Michael O’Hanlon writes: Reconciliation in Afghanistan will be tricky. But whatever Mr. Karzai's other flaws or weaknesses, we needn't lose too much sleep over the possibility that he will be duped into running up the white flag at the negotiating table. He cares too much about remaining president, building up the country, and avoiding assassination and protecting his friends to be so cavalier about such a key matter of realpolitik – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Marc Thiessen writes: When Biden puts his foot in his mouth on healthcare or other domestic matters, he simply embarrasses the president. But when he puts his foot in his mouth on Afghanistan, he undermines our mission and puts the lives of American troops at risk. But let us not forget that it was President Obama decided to set an artificial deadline for withdrawal at the same time he announced the surge—effectively announcing our departure before additional American forces had even left for Afghanistan. This decision could prove to be an unmitigated disaster, one which may have doomed the mission in Afghanistan from the start. – The Enterprise ________________________________________ Iran

U.S. lawmakers on Monday reached agreement on legislation that would penalize Iran's business partners for selling the country gasoline, investing in its refineries, or providing financial services to firms linked to its political and military elite. – Washington Post

Read the summary and text of the bill.
The United Arab Emirates is investigating several companies with a view to closing them because of their links to Iranian entities singled out for sanctions by the United Nations. The inquiry comes as the UAE – a key hub for re-exports to Iran – seeks to crack down on illicit trade with its Gulf neighbour. – Financial Times

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates on June 20 refused to address the notion of having to contain a nuclear armed Iran, saying U.S. efforts were aimed at preventing it from acquiring atomic weapons. - AFP

Pakistan will abide by any U.S. sanctions on Iran, which Washington has warned could hit Pakistani companies involved in a $7.6 billion Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline deal, the prime minister said on Monday. - Reuters

Jamsheed Choksy writes: Iran’s emergence from the 1979 revolution’s stifling legacy could therefore become much bloodier domestically, and its policies more erratic and fraught with danger internationally, before improving. – Current Trends in Islamist Ideology

Abbas Milani writes: With this manifesto, Mr. Mousavi has come to fully represent the democratic elements of that coalition. His humble disposition, his invitation for critical dialogue about ways to improve the document, and his defiance in the face of constant threats by the regime and its thugs, all point to a new turn in Iran's democratic movement. This once radical prime minister, beloved by Khomeini, has come to represent the aspirations of Iran's prudent democrats. The world today faces a clear choice: the regime, with its brutal policies at home and its confrontational nuclear policy abroad; or the possibility of a democratic Iran with an accountable foreign policy. The world must serve notice that any attack on Mr. Mousavi will bring about the regime's total isolation—not unlike apartheid South Africa. A democratic Iran is the only solution to the world's Iran problem, and Mr. Mousavi's new statement provides a promising blueprint for achieving this goal. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required) ________________________________________ Pakistan
Even as its army battles insurgents on the mountainous western border, Pakistan's government remains deeply ambivalent about tackling extremist Sunnis it says are a rising menace within its populous heartland – Washington Post

Pakistan's poor public education system helps stoke militancy, while the religious schools often cited as a cause of extremism appear not to be a major risk factor, says a report by a Washington think tank - Reuters

Ahmad Majidyar writes: While Washington and Islamabad have directed considerable attention and resources to fighting terrorism in Pakistan's tribal areas, rising militant activity and growing Taliban and al Qaeda influence in the country's most populous province of Punjab have been largely ignored – AEI’s Middle Eastern Outlook ________________________________________ Obama Administration

Peter Spiegel reports: Relations between the U.S. military and civilians in the Obama administration have been tense since last year’s three-month review of Afghan war strategy, a state of affairs unlikely to be helped by a new profile of Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the overall commander in Afghanistan, that will appear in Rolling Stone magazine on Friday. – WSJ’s Washington Wire

Joseph Loconte write: To the degree that Obama believes in promoting democracy, his efforts will flounder if they continue to lack moral realism: a deep sense of the corruptibility of religion…Nevertheless, just as religion can be a source of radicalism, it also can inspire political reform. If the goal is to win hearts and minds, then the religious ideals which move many hearts and minds around the world must be taken into account. There are countless Muslim reformers, living under despotic regimes, who cannot imagine a just society without a spiritual foundation. There are many non-Muslim minorities in these nations—Christians, Jews, Bahá'ís, and others—who are prepared to work with them, if only they enjoyed the same political rights as their Muslim neighbors. Neither the militant secularist nor the political realist has anything to say to them. – The American ________________________________________ United Kingdom

Britain's special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, who has criticized elements of the U.S. war strategy, has resigned and the new government of Prime Minister David Cameron is reviewing whether to fill the job, British officials said Monday. – Washington Post

Britain marked its 300th military death in the Afghanistan war on Monday, a milestone that Prime Minister David Cameron described as “desperately bad news” and a reminder that Britain was “paying a high price for keeping our country safe.” – New York Times

John Bolton writes: [T]he most likely prospect for the next several years is more decay in the special relationship, and perhaps even death through apathy. American conservatives may try to resurrect the relationship if we are successful in 2012, but on the present record we will not look to 10 Downing Street for aid and comfort in that effort. - Standpoint ________________________________________ Koreas

China said on Tuesday it was concerned about reports that a U.S. aircraft carrier may join a military exercise with South Korea amid a tense standoff with North Korea over the sinking of a warship from the South. - Reuters

South Korea intends to boost its participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative, a U.S.-led effort aimed at interdicting sea vessels around the globe thought to be smuggling weapons of mass destruction, a Seoul Foreign Ministry official said yesterday. – Global Security Newswire

Harsh Pant writes: The recent civilian nuclear deal between China and Pakistan poses an equally serious yet underappreciated threat. Historically, the Sino-Pak nuclear relationship has been the single most important factor undermining the global nonproliferation regime, and this deal, if it wins international approval, would reward past abuses and open the way to an even more destabilizing arms race. – Wall Street Journal ________________________________________ Russia
A former Russian minister testified on Monday in the trial of jailed oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, becoming the first top Kremlin ally to appear in the case which is seen as a test of promised judicial reforms. Kremlin critics dismissed the appearance of German Gref, who now heads Russia's largest bank, as a bid to lend legitimacy to politically charged proceedings against the former Yukos chief. - Reuters

With sensationalist adverts, steep price rises and bombastic rhetoric, Russia is pulling out all the stops to curb the national love affair with vodka that is estimated to cause 500,000 deaths a year, especially among men. - Guardian

Josh Rogin reports: The U.S.-Russia "reset" begins phase two this week, as Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tours the United States and ends up face to face with U.S. PresidentBarack Obama, almost exactly one year after their last summit meeting in Moscow. – The Cable

David Kramer writes: Ahead of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Washington this week, a "leaked" Russian foreign policy document is causing some Russia watchers to wonder whether the Russian president is shifting his country toward a more positive, pro-Western stance. A careful read of the 18,000-word document does not support such wishful thinking – Washington Post

David Kramer will be a panelist at tomorrow’s FPI event: “US-Russian Relations: Beset By Reset?” ________________________________________ Kyrgyzstan

Government forces in Kyrgyzstan clashed with minority Uzbeks near the southern city of Osh on Monday, killing two people and wounding more than 20 others as the authorities sought to take control of barricaded ethnic Uzbek enclaves across the region. – Washington Post

Ethnic Uzbeks in Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan say Kyrgyz government troops raided their neighborhood on June 21, beating people with rifle butts and destroying their personal documents. Two people were killed in the raid after authorities say government troops were fired upon. The allegations of beatings and identity destruction are among the strongest claims yet of government involvement in violence between ethnic Uzbeks and Kyrgyz that killed more than 200 people last week. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

An outburst of ethnic violence in Kyrgyzstan could have been prevented if the Central Asian nation's interim rulers had acted decisively to quell the unrest, a former senior government official said Monday. - Reuters

Paul Quinn-Judge writes: In southern Kyrgyzstan two well armed communities, Kyrgyz and Uzbek, live in close proximity, angry and scared. First of all they need to be separated, right away: ideally by an international armed force if anyone has the courage to offer troops. Failing that, a political buffer zone of international mediators who can keep the communities at a safe distance from each other. We need medical teams, ideally Russians, who speak the region’s common language and who can treat Uzbeks who now refuse to have anything to do even with Kyrgyz doctors. We need a safe environment where cool heads from both sides can start the long process of searching for a middle ground. And we need to do this right now, before the middle ground ceases to exist. – International Herald Tribune ________________________________________ The War

A naturalized U.S. citizen born in Pakistan who sought to "wreak death and destruction" with a bomb he placed in a car he parked May 1 in Times Square pleaded guilty Monday in federal court in New York, just days after a federal grand jury indicted him on 10 terrorism and weapons counts. – Washington Times

The Supreme Court on Monday upheld one of the government's most frequently used tools in the battle against terrorism. In a 6-3 decision, the court rejected a constitutional challenge to a law banning "material support" to terrorist organizations, a charge that has frequently been leveled since the Sept.11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon against those in the U.S. who are in league with organizations such al Qaeda. – Washington Times

Moroccan security forces have broken up a Palestinian-led radical Islamist cell that was planning attacks in the north African country, the official MAP news agency said Monday. - Reuters ________________________________________ Israel

Jerusalem’s city hall advanced rezoning and development plans on Monday for a hotly contested area of East Jerusalem, another example of an awkwardly timed, seemingly bureaucratic Israeli maneuver that could upset fragile peace efforts – New York Times

Four Palestinian politicians affiliated with the Islamist Hamas party on Monday rejected an Israeli order that they relocate to the West Bank – Washington Post

Israel is no stranger to feelings of isolation…The feeling has become more pronounced in recent weeks. With the peace process stalled, the international community turning a skeptical eye toward Israeli shows of force and pro-Palestinian groups eager to jump on the nation's missteps, the stage was set for a furious reaction when commandos killed nine activists aboard a Turkish aid ship heading for Gaza on May 31. Since then, Israelis have engaged in a heated national conversation about how and why the country has become so isolated. – Washington Post ________________________________________ Middle East

Iraq’s electricity minister abruptly resigned Monday evening because of growing public outrage over the relentless power shortage crisis in the country, which exploded into violent weekend demonstrations that carried into the first day of summer’s 110-degree heat. – New York Times

Amil is a stronghold for Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, a largely homegrown group of Sunni insurgents, but that is something the neighborhood does not want to discuss…During the past several weeks, United States forces have aggressively begun to try to root out Qaeda operatives in Amil before the last of the American combat troops leaves… Whatever the reason, no one has been able to quell Mosul’s violence: It is one of the few urban areas in Iraq where American combat troops patrol the streets – New York Times

In a region where the U.S. is stretched thin and short of even semireliable allies, the Obama administration is keeping its public criticism of Turkey muted and trying to move forward. - Politico

Are 100,000 female Saudi teachers victims of salary discrimination, or are they employees who freely signed job contracts and now must live with the financial consequences? This is the question at the heart of a debate in the kingdom that has been running for more than a year. And it is not an insignificant debate, since its outcome affects one of the most important sectors of the government’s workforce: those training the next generation of Saudis. – The National

Switzerland considered sending in commandos or spies to free two of its citizens who were unjustly detained in Libya for more than a year, the country's president revealed today. - Guardian

Elite commando units rappelled down from helicopters, and mechanized infantry units blocked escape routes of Kurdish rebels in a major operation along the Iraqi border on Monday. Turkey's military chief did not rule out a cross-border offensive against rebel hideouts in northern Iraq. – Associated Press ________________________________________ China

China’s central bank on Tuesday set a key daily rate for the renminbi at its highest level in five years, in a closely watched move that echoed a 0.42 percent rise in the Chinese currency on Monday and suggested possible further increases – New York Times

Phil Levy writes: The administration has handled the situation with China well and achieved the best result they could realistically have hoped for. The question is whether the politics of China trade will allow them to claim the victory. – Shadow Government ________________________________________ Nuclear Weapons/Missile Defense

The Pentagon’s Airborne Laser (ABL) is being prepared for a late July test in which it will attempt to shoot down an ascending target missile from twice the distance of the aircraft’s previous intercept tests, the program’s top official said. – Space News

Keith Payne writes; A rigid elevation of nuclear zero to highest policy priority could conflict with the maintenance of the U.S. ability to deter future war. Will the administration protect U.S. deterrence capabilities when trade-offs among these goals must be made? The administration's New START treaty offers grounds for concern. – Washington Times

Michaela Bendikova and Owen Graham write: The effort towards disarmament is not reciprocal for a simple reason – human nature. Unless we change human nature, there will not be agreement or confidence in an international authority capable of verification, enforcement and punishment of states that decide to develop their own nuclear capabilities. – The Foundry ________________________________________ Wikileaks

The elusive founder of WikiLeaks, who is at the centre of a potential US national security sensation, has surfaced from almost a month in hiding to tell the Guardian he does not fear for his safety but is on permanent alert. - Guardian ________________________________________ Japan

Japan's ruling Democratic Party's top goal in next month's election is to win enough seats to keep Prime Minister Naoto Kan from becoming the latest of the nation's revolving-door leaders, a party executive said on Monday. - Reuters

Japan's third-biggest political party has ruled out teaming up with the Democrats even if the ruling party falls short of a majority in an upper house poll next month, an outcome that would cloud the policy outlook - Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: The new acting secretary general of Japan's ruling party took time out of a heated campaign to visit Washington briefly Friday night, to deliver the message that the Obama administration no longer has to worry about the Japanese government's commitment to the U.S.-Japan alliance. – The Cable ________________________________________ Southeast Asia

Thailand's military-backed government has frozen the bank accounts of wealthy suspected supporters of protesters for democracy, whose two-month-long encampment in downtown Bangkok ended in a deadly clash with authorities in May. – Washington Times

Pro-democracy activists in Burma want the Obama administration to reject the military junta's plans to hold elections from which they have been shut out this year – Washington Times ________________________________________ Americas

Roger Noriega writes: It is significant that the United States has had no closer friend in South America in the last decade than Colombia under Uribe. With Santos’s victory ensuring continued anti-drug cooperation, Colombians will continue to press Washington for approval of a free-trade agreement and crucial security assistance to consolidate the gains of the bipartisan “Plan Colombia” security package, which was authored by a Republican Congress in cooperation with the Clinton administration a decade ago. – The Enterprise

________________________________________ Announcements

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________________________________________ Events

Iran Policy in the Aftermath of UN Sanctions
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
June 22

US-Romanian Relations
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 22

Jamaica at the Tipping Point
Center or Strategic and International Studies
June 22

Burma's Nuclear Ambitions
National Endowment for Democracy
June 22

How Pakistan's Lawyers Turned the Tide Against Musharaff's Dictatorship
National Endowment for Democracy
June 22

Iran's Post-Cold War Foreign Policy
New America Foundation
June 22

Jews and Palestinian Arabs in Israel: Concord or Conflict?
United States Institute of Peace
June 22

US Intelligence Community: Toolset for Success or Anachronism in the Modern Age?
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
June 22

US-Russian Relations: Beset By Reset?
Foreign Policy Initiative
June 23

Finding Common Ground with a Rising China
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
June 23

Prospects and Challenges for US-India Technology Cooperation
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 23

Somalia's Political Transition: The View from the TFP
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 23

Regional Conflicts in Southeast Asia
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 23

Defining the Indian Grand Strategy in Foreign Policy
Hudson Institute
June 23

Journey Into America: The Challenge of Islam
Middle East Institute
June 23

The State of Women Internationally
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
June 23

Helmand and Kandahar: A Campaign Assessment
New America Foundation
June 23

Visions of a New Decade in European-Islamic Relations
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 23

Confirmation Hearings of Gens. Odierno and Austin
Senate Armed Services Committee
June 24

The New START Treaty: Implementation - Inspections and Assistance
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
June 24

The New START Treaty: Benefits and Risks
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
June 24

Journey into America: The Challenge of Islam
Brookings Institution
June 24

How Can China Reduce its Reliance on Net Exports?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 24

Mobile Phones and Peacebuilding in Afghanistan
United States Institute of Peace
June 24

Islam and Democracy in Southeast Asia
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 24

Human Development in Central America: A Status Report
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 24

Afghanistan and Russia as Test-Cases for the New EU Foreign Policy
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 24

The Promise of Rural Journalism in Guatemala's Fragile Democracy
National Endowment for Democracy
June 25

The Fumes Administration in El Salvador: A Review of the 1st Year
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 25

Using APEC and Trade Agreements to Advance US Interests in the Asia-Pacific
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 28

US-Latin American Relations: Cooperation or Conflict in the 21st Century?
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 28

Dr. Rajiv Shah, USAID Administrator
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 29

International Investment after the Iraq Withdrawal
Middle East Institute
June 29

A Good or Bad START?
Heritage Foundation
June 30

UK Defense Policy, Plans and Committments
Heritage Foundation
June 30

Can Counterinsurgency Work in Afghanistan?
Hudson Institute
June 30

A Chance in Hell: The Men Who Triumphed Over Iraq's Deadliest City
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 30

Preventing Violent Conflict: Principles, Policies and Practice
United States Institute of Peace
July 1

China and the Persian Gulf
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 12

India's Maoist Insurgency
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15 The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org

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