FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief
June 11, 2010
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Iran

The U.S. has accelerated its effort to provide dissidents in Iran with computer hardware and software to evade government censors. But it's a shift that many activists say is insufficient to bring political change in Tehran. – Wall Street Journal

Top Iranian officials threatened to scale back cooperation with the United Nations' nuclear watchdog on Thursday as a chorus of political leaders raged against new economic sanctions imposed on the Islamic republic's military establishment. – Washington Post

As Iran defended its record before the United Nations Human Rights Council, calling itself a model of Middle East democracy, opposition leaders in Tehran on Thursday canceled a weekend rally marking one year since the country’s disputed presidential election because the government did not give them a permit. – New York Times

The Obama administration, which labored for months to impose tough new United Nations sanctions against Iran, now is pushing in the opposite direction against Congress as it crafts U.S. sanctions that the White House fears may go too far. – Los Angeles Times

A bipartisan group of House members on Thursday put forward a resolution calling for the Iranian government to cease the oppression of its people and political dissidents. – Washington Times

UN sanctions will not hurt Russia's S-300 missile supplies to Iran nor the states' nuclear cooperation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said June 10 after claims the deal would be frozen. - AFP

An Iranian dissident who went missing for almost two weeks in Germany told The Associated Press on Thursday he was kidnapped by four Arabic-speaking men who threatened to kill him for a film he made that is critical of the Iranian regime. – Associated Press

Iran feels more comfortable than at any time since the election. For the millions of Iranians who turned out last summer to unseat their president, it is painful to watch him strutting on the world stage. All the same, says one campaigner, Mr Ahmadinejad is perfectly capable, by some of act of coarseness or brutality, of bringing people into the streets again. “All it would take”, he says, “is one spark.” But the fire of democracy has been doused before. - Economist

Analysis: There is a Plan B — actually, a Plan B, C, and D — parts of which are already unfolding across the Persian Gulf. The administration does not talk about them much, at least publicly, but they include old-style military containment and an operation known informally at the C.I.A. as the Braindrain Project to lure away Iran’s nuclear talent. By all accounts, Mr. Obama has ramped up a Bush-era covert program to undermine Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure, and he has made quiet diplomatic use of Israel’s lurking threat to take military action if diplomacy and pressure fail – New York Times

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) says: I believe that when we consider the many threats and crimes of Iran’s government, we are led to one inescapable conclusion: It is the character of this Iranian regime – not just its behavior – that is the deeper threat to peace and freedom in our world, and in Iran. Furthermore, I believe that it will only be a change in the Iranian regime itself – a peaceful change, chosen by and led by the people of Iran – that could finally produce the changes we seek in Iran’s policies. – McCain’s Senate Office

Charles Krauthammer writes: In announcing the passage of a U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Iran, President Obama stressed not once but twice Iran's increasing "isolation" from the world. This claim is not surprising considering that after 16 months of an "extended hand" policy, in response to which Iran accelerated its nuclear program…Apart from the fact that isolation is hardly an end in itself and is pointless if, regardless, Iran rushes headlong to become a nuclear power, the very claim of Iran's increasing isolation is increasingly implausible – Washington Post

Fouad Ajami writes: There is no guarantee that categorical American support would have altered the outcome of the struggle between autocracy and liberty in Iran. But it shall now be part of the narrative of liberty that when Persia rose in the summer of 2009 the steward of American power ducked for cover, and that a president who prided himself on his eloquence couldn't even find the words to tell the forces of liberty that he understood the wellsprings of their revolt. – Wall Street Journal

Ilan Berman writes: It's time now for the U.S. government to put its money where its mouth is. Like their anti-Soviet counterparts during the Cold War, Iran's opposition needs reliable, independent means for communicating and coordinating their activities—technology and tools that the United States and its allies can readily provide. Regime opponents likewise need to be able to dispel the disinformation being spread by the Iranian regime, and to highlight official corruption. For that, they require unfiltered access to the Internet, and a receptive ear from Western media. And the Green Movement needs greater Western support for the plight of political opponents and dissidents, particularly those lingering in Iranian prisons. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Robert Tait writes: Musavi and Karrubi are effectively trying to stay relevant in the eyes of two distinct and contrasting constituencies. It is a tortuous balancing act on Iran's constantly moving political quicksands. Performing it runs the risk of disappearing into the same black hole that has swallowed up their beloved Islamic republic. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

On Thursday, during a visit to NATO headquarters, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal admitted that preparations for perhaps the most critical operation of the war -- the campaign to take control of Kandahar, the Taliban's birthplace -- weren't going as planned. He said winning support from local leaders, some of whom see the Taliban fighters not as oppressors but as their Muslim brothers, was proving tougher than expected. The military side of the campaign, originally scheduled to surge in June and finish by August, is now likely to extend into the fall – Washington Post

David Cameron promised yesterday that British troops would not remain in Afghanistan a day longer than necessary as he flew into the country for the first time as Prime Minister. Mr Cameron gave his broadest hint yet that 10,000 British troops would start to return home next year, and confirmed that the question of sending more British Forces to the country was “not remotely on the agenda”. – Times of London

NATO warned on Friday of tough times ahead in Afghanistan and said success was not yet assured in its struggle against a widening Taliban insurgency. - Reuters

General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan, spoke with RFE/RL's Radio Free Afghanistan (Radio Azadi) and Radio Mashaal in Brussels. The interview was jointly conducted by Gul Ayaz of Radio Mashaal and Omid Marzban and Saliha Ishaqzai Khalliqie of Radio Free Afghanistan. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Imtiaz Gul writes: The establishment ostensibly doesn't consider Lashkar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed the real public enemy and thus does not plan any crackdown on them in the near future. But this strategy could be a tragic mistake: Although the militants operating in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border regions may number a few thousand, their creeping ideological appeal represents the biggest threat not only to Pakistan, but to all countries targeted by jihad -- perhaps most of all to America. – Foreign Policy
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Koreas

North Korea's state media over the last two weeks stepped up an anti-South Korea campaign after being accused of sinking a South Korean warship, with reports repeatedly portraying angry citizens vowing to work harder to "get back" at the South. The reports have dominated TV newscasts monitored in Seoul and appeared in newspapers that arrive in South Korea more than a week after publication. – Wall Street Journal

South Korea's audit agency told the defense minister to punish 25 top military officials for failing to ensure combat readiness ahead of the deadly sinking of a South Korean warship blamed on North Korea, an official said Thursday. – Associated Press

Michael Gerson writes: With strategic options relating to North Korea limited, an information assault on the regime assumes greater urgency…But neither South Korea nor the United States shows much creativity or commitment in applying new information technologies to help the spread of freedom. Technology is important to this task. But defectors remind us that democratic progress ultimately depends on a moral determination. How does a mind change? The key, says North Korean defector Kang Chol-Hwan, is "the internal courage to see the essence of evil." – Washington Post
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Burma/Myanmar

President Obama has yet to appoint a special envoy for Myanmar, whose military-ruled regime reportedly is trying to build a nuclear weapon and plans to hold what U.S. lawmakers see as a flawed election this year. U.S. officials have expressed disappointment with these developments, and members of Congress and activists say the appointment of a U.S. policy coordinator is key to holding the junta accountable for its bad behavior. – Washington Times

Myanmar risks destabilizing Southeast Asia through its pursuit of weapons, although it is not yet clear whether the military regime is developing a nuclear program, a U.S. official said June 10. - AFP

Sai Thein Win offers no new insight into the North Korean link. But Western intelligence agencies watch North Korea’s activities in Myanmar. There have been reports that a company associated with the construction of a secret nuclear reactor in Syria (until it was bombed by Israel in 2007 just before completion) has worked in Myanmar too. - Economist

Kelley Currie writes: While opportunities to undermine North Korea's regime have narrowed as its nuclear program has advanced, in Burma there are still viable options beyond the nuclear non-proliferation policy silo. If the latest reports are accurate, there is time to stop Burma's nuclear progress cold by undermining the junta's unaccountable, irresponsible grip on power. And unlike North Korea, in Burma there is an existing, legitimate democratic option that stands ready and waiting to work with the international community to establish a Burmese government that rejects nuclear brinksmanship in favor of cooperation, sustainable development and competent governance. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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China

Leading senators frustrated by a lack of progress by the Obama administration signaled on Thursday that they were willing to consider retaliatory measures to address China’s policies on trade, currency and intellectual property. – New York Times

New data Thursday showed the U.S. trade deficit widened in April as the government stepped up pressure on China to implement changes aimed at narrowing the trade gap – Wall Street Journal

The events of the last several weeks are the latest installment in a long-running effort by the Pentagon to mollify the Communist Party-ruled military through a series of exchanges, meetings and ship visits involving senior and mid level military officers. The problem, according to officials close to the program, is that the United States sees the exchanges as a way to develop friendly relations, while China's military has used the exchanges for intelligence-gathering and technology identification for its major military buildup – Washington Times
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Middle East

Fearing a rush of more aid flotillas, not least from Iran, and more deadly confrontations in the seas off Gaza, a plethora of policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic are examining ways of easing the sea blockade while assuaging Israel’s security worries. - Economist

Iraq's two main Shi'ite electoral blocs said on Thursday they would unite under a new name, National Alliance, but they have yet to resolve their differences over their choice for prime minister - Reuters

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas expressed concern on Thursday that hope was waning for a two-state solution to the Middle East conflict. - Reuters

Analysis: Gulf Arab states, hosts to U.S. and Western military bases, fear the discovery of a purported Iranian spy ring in Kuwait will make it harder to stay out of the fray of any conflict over Iran's nuclear program - Reuters

Danielle Pletka testifies: Despite a heightened awareness of terrorism and terrorist groups since 9/11, American policy toward Lebanon, Syria and Hezbollah remains confused--a mass of mixed signals and inconsistent approaches. Despite more than $1.6 billion in economic and military assistance to Lebanon since FY06 (including requests for FY2011), despite a concerted effort to reach out to the Assad regime in Damascus, and despite a willingness to overlook the increasingly dominant military and political role played by Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Obama administration has little to show for its efforts in the Levant. – Senate Foreign Relations Committee
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Japan

The LDP’s defeat in last August’s general election appeared to vindicate Mr Ozawa in spades. But by then, less appealing traits had trumped his reformist leanings. They included a taste for the Machiavellian in the exercise of power that undermined the DPJ’s formal governance. They also included LDP-style patronage and pork as an electoral and governing strategy, particularly in rural districts. The strategy patently worked last summer. But the electorate did not vote out the LDP in order to see the DPJ start emulating it. - Economist
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Russia

Police hunting a group of vigilantes who have captured the public imagination by attacking “corrupt” officers arrested their first suspect yesterday. The men, known as “Russian Rambos”, are said to be led by an army veteran and are accused of killing at least one policeman and wounding three in a campaign of violence in the eastern region of Primorsky Krai. – Times of London

Dmitry Sidorov writes: Modern Russia is not a free country. Freedom came only once in Russia's entire history--for nine years, from 1991 to 2000. The West may choose to ignore the obvious, hiding behind phrases like "emerging democracy" or a "country in transition," but the cruel features of dictatorship are there whether we choose to acknowledge them or not. - Forbes
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Europe

Judges at The Hague handed down two rare genocide convictions on Thursday, sentencing two security officers for the Bosnian Serb Army to life in prison for their roles in the 1995 Srebrenica massacre, the worst single episode in a decade of war that left 100,000 dead and tore the Balkans apart – New York Times

Spewing oil and alienating Americans with its chief executive’s impolitic remarks, BP may be Public Enemy No. 1 in the United States. But in Britain, where the company is a mainstay of the stock market and a favorite of pension funds, investors and politicians are becoming increasingly angry at the blistering attacks from across the Atlantic. – New York Times

With almost all the votes counted, the [Dutch] conservative-leaning Liberal Party — which champions austerity measures to curb the country’s budget deficit — took 31 seats, up from 22 in the last Parliament. The Liberals were ahead of the Labor Party with 30 seats, down from 33. – New York Times

British Defence Secretary Liam Fox has admitted the current defense program is unaffordable and has promised that a strategic defense and security review due out in November will make tough choices on major programs, rather than "salami slicing," to achieve a coherent, long-term plan. – Defense News
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Southeast Asia

Addressing the nation three weeks after a military crackdown on protesters, Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva presented what he called a “letter to the Thai people” on Thursday, calling for reconciliation in a country shaken and divided by months of turmoil and scores of deaths – New York Times

Sara Schonhardt writes: Indonesia may have made significant strides on media freedoms since repealing many of the repressive Suharto-era laws that muzzled the press. But rights groups say the government is still trying to silence critics of public officials, pointing to renewed efforts to monitor the Internet as evidence that free speech remains in jeopardy. – The Diplomat
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Kyrgyzstan

Authorities say at least 17 people have been killed in a new outbreak of violence in the southern Kyrgyz city of Osh and neighboring districts. The deaths were reported on June 11 shortly after the country's interim authorities declared a state of emergency and stationed troops in the area. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Africa

The World Cup is the most-watched event on earth, and South Africa is eager to be seen, especially if the cameras ignore the shacks of the poor and focus instead on the beautiful new stadiums, the panoramic view from Cape Town’s Table Mountain and the wild animals flourishing in the bush. Much is expected from the monthlong tournament: global recognition for an international up-and-comer; a pie in the face for pessimists who believed that the stadiums would never be completed on time; a jolt of good feeling in a nation with a dangerously dwindled supply of inspiration. – New York Times

As Congo nears the 50th anniversary of its independence from Belgium on June 30th, Mr Chebeya’s murky death suggests that 2006 was a false dawn. With Mr Kabila facing a difficult election race next year, repression is unlikely to let up. - Economist

Jonathan Schanzer writes: The Sudanese newspaper Rai al-Shaab (Opinion of the People), owned and controlled by Sudanese opposition leader Hassan al-Turabi, recently published an article that potentially provides new and important insight into Sudan's terrorist ties to Iran. The article alleges that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a U.S.-designated terrorist organization, is operating a secret weapons factory in Sudan to funnel weapons to Iran-sponsored terrorist organizations in Africa and the Middle East. - Foreign Policy
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Americas

The U.S.-backed campaign against drug dealers in Colombia and Mexico has led gangs to look for new transit routes through the Caribbean…Caribbean states are especially vulnerable to narcotics trafficking because they are small, poor and have high rates of unemployment. Now the Obama administration, identifying the Caribbean as the "third border," wants to nearly double anti-narcotics aid for the Caribbean Basin Security Initiative, to $79 m. for 2011. – Washington Post

Former Colombian Defense Minister Juan Manuel Santos holds almost a 40-point lead over rival Antanas Mockus less than two weeks before a June 20 presidential runoff, an opinion poll showed on Thursday. - Reuters

Jamie Daremblum writes: [F]or both humanitarian and practical reasons, the Obama administration should be standing up for Venezuelan democracy. But instead, Obama officials seem to be embracing value-free realpolitik, just as they have done in their dealings with China, Iran, and other dictatorial regimes. Such timid diplomacy, though often described as “realism,” is not realistic at all, if the goal is to foster stability. True stability will only be possible when Venezuela returns to the path of democracy—and that will only happen if the U.S. and its Latin American partners confront Chávez over his dangerous and destructive behavior. – Weekly Standard Blog

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