FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

May 26, 2010
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Special Announcement

On the evening of Wednesday, June 2, FPI Director Dan Senor will give a first-hand report on the changing situation in the Middle East at the Union League Club in New York City. For more information, and to RSVP, please visit the Events page on FPI's website.

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Koreas

North Korea announced Tuesday that it is severing all relations with South Korea, heightening the risk of armed conflict and creating perhaps the most serious crisis on the Korean Peninsula in more than two decades. The announcement, which followed the South's imposition of sanctions on the Pyongyang government for apparently sinking one of its warships, all but crushed the last remaining elements of the North-South "sunshine policy" that emerged in 2000, after the first-ever summit between the two Koreas. That meeting opened trade links between the two countries, enabled the South to send food aid to the North and for several years helped prop up the North's weak economy. – Washington Post

Analysis: Because North Korea has perhaps the most secretive government in the world, there is no definitive explanation for its seemingly self-destructive actions. But there are revealing patterns in Kim's behavior and how it is sold to his isolated people. The North's internal propaganda machine uses Kim's defiance of the outside world to whip up nationalist fervor and to distract North Koreans from the increasingly grim circumstances of their daily lives. – Washington Post

Ian Bremmer writes: [B]eyond the speculation, it’s starting to look like North Korea’s insecurity might be approaching a tipping point — raising the risk of another hostile act that might send North and South Koreans forces stumbling toward a shooting war that can only end in disaster for both. – New York Times

Daniel Freedman writes: South Korea and the U.S. in turn need to play their opponent and understand that Kim Jong Il has even more to lose than them from a war. Kim knows that if there is a conflict, he will eventually lose, and lose control of North Korea--and his prime motivation is ensuring the continuation of his regime (and after his death through one of his sons). In fact the torpedoing may have been to shore up domestic support by showing that the regime is as strong as ever. And on an international level Kim is engaged in a strategy of dictaplomacy (making hostile moves and later backing down to gain needed concessions). - Forbes

Bruce Bechtol writes: The bottom line is that things are likely to get difficult in coming months. But Kim Jong-il’s government knew this in advance. They surely anticipated much of what is happening now when they planned for and deployed a submarine to sink a South Korean ship on a peaceful mission in its own sovereign waters. And thus, as the tension remains thick in the air in coming months, we should not forget the main culprit in all of this: the DPRK. Unless and until Pyongyang ends it rogue-state behavior, containment is the only practical solution for maintaining security and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. – AEI’s Center for Defense Studies

Daniel Goure writes: North Korea is perhaps the quintessential hybrid threat that defense analysts today speak so much about. Its capabilities range from nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles to thousands of tanks and artillery pieces, millions of infantrymen, hundreds of aircraft (virtually all obsolete but most in working order) and a special operations command of over 100,000. In the last Korean War, northern forces engaged in guerrilla activities throughout the peninsula. This time, Pyongyang might even resort to terrorist attacks in the United States or along the supply lines from the U.S. homeland to the war zone. This kind of war would be a test of the U.S. military’s ability to deal with a so-called hybrid threat. – Early Warning
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China

Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner wrapped up extensive talks with Chinese officials Tuesday without any significant progress on Iran, North Korea or other key issues dividing the countries. – Washington Post

The most wide-ranging dialogue in the history of modern U.S.-China relations ended with some accord on contentious issues of currency and trade, but underlined a fundamental shift in the relationship between Washington and a newly assertive Beijing. – Wall Street Journal

The Obama administration's talks with China this week won few new commitments from Beijing on global security challenges, particularly in looming showdowns with North Korea and Iran. But Beijing's increasing diplomatic and military assertiveness is unnerving its Asian neighbors in ways that could bolster the U.S.'s strategic position in the region. Fears that China is siding with Pyongyang over North Korea's alleged sinking of a South Korean naval vessel has rattled South Korea's and Japan's governments and re-energized their commitments to military alliances with the U.S., officials from both countries said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

FPI Director of Democracy and Human Rights Ellen Bork discussed American policy toward China and the state of human rights in the People’s Republic yesterday at the Heritage Foundation.

James Zimmerman writes: China has the opportunity to play a leadership role in the development of North Korea, but it must do so in a manner that ensures open cooperation with all regional players and institutions. – New York Times
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Afghanistan/Pakistan

Senior U.S. officials used an urgent meeting with Pakistan's president to present a dossier on terrorism suspect Faisal Shahzad, including a detailed chart describing his contacts with the Pakistani Taliban before his attempt to detonate an explosives-laden vehicle in New York City's Times Square, officials said. The evidence was part of an emphatic American warning that there would be "inevitable pressure" on the United States to take action if there was an attack traceable to Pakistan that resulted in U.S. casualties, officials familiar with the talks said. – Los Angeles Times

Tribal elders have been killed by the Taliban across the south and east of the country; in recent months, elders in Kandahar Province have been especially hard hit. At least 13 have been shot since February. In the mid-1990s the killings were common practice in Khost as well when the Taliban were seeking to take over Afghanistan, said Arsala Jamal, the former governor of Khost, who is now the acting minister of Borders and Tribal Affairs. By killing just a few elders, the Taliban were able to terrify the others and thus found it easier to gain dominance, he said. – New York Times

Pakistan's high court ruled Tuesday that authorities did not have enough evidence to arrest a firebrand Islamic cleric suspected of masterminding the deadly attacks on the Indian city of Mumbai. The ruling is likely to anger India's government at a time when the two rival countries seek a thaw in relations. – Los Angeles Times

Before he became America's best hope for reforming Kandahar's cutthroat political system, provincial governor Tooryalai Wesa was fired from his job with a U.S. government contractor over allegations of mismanagement and corruption, according to officials familiar with his tenure…In the context of Afghan corruption, which is pervasive and often involves government officials siphoning off huge sums of money, the allegations were minor. But the questions about his integrity and management abilities were serious enough that they cost him his job, the officials said. Now Wesa stands at the center of U.S. efforts to build a credible government in Kandahar as 10,000 American troops arrive to bolster his administration. – Washington Post

Conspiracy theory is a national sport in Pakistan, where the main players — the United States, India and Israel — change positions depending on the ebb and flow of history. Since 2001, the United States has taken center stage, looming so large in Pakistan’s collective imagination that it sometimes seems to be responsible for everything that goes wrong here. – New York Times

The operation in Marjah is supposed to be the first blow in a decisive campaign to oust the Taliban from their spiritual homeland in adjacent Kandahar province, one that McChrystal had hoped would bring security and stability to Marjah and begin to convey an "irreversible sense of momentum" in the U.S.-led campaign in Afghanistan. Instead, a tour last week of Marjah and the nearby Nad Ali district, during which McClatchy had rare access to meetings between McChrystal and top Western strategists, drove home the hard fact that President Barack Obama's plan to begin pulling American troops out of Afghanistan in July 2011 is colliding with the realities of the war. - McClatchy

Outages of up to 18 hours a day are threatening the [Pakistani] government's credibility at a time when the U.S. is pressing it to step up its fight against the Taliban and al Qaeda. Mindful that a bad economy could mean more recruits to the militant cause, Washington has pledged $1 billion to improve the power supply, including upgrading thermal and hydropower plants as well as modernizing distribution. – Associated Press

Reza Jan writes: The hold of the Taliban in Swat has been broken, the army continues to remain popular, and, for most people, life appears to be returning to ‘normal’. Yet, as long as two whole divisions worth of soldiers are required to maintain public confidence in security, the situation cannot be wholly normal. – AEI’s Critical Threats
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Iran

An Iranian filmmaker jailed for nearly three months was released Tuesday on $200,000 bail, nine days after beginning a hunger strike, the news agency ISNA reported. The charges against the filmmaker, Jafar Panahi, 49, were never made clear, but the news agency reported that his case was before the Revolutionary Court, which would suggest that the charges were security related. At the time of his detention, the authorities had said he had been arrested for “plans” to make a film about the protests that followed the disputed presidential election last summer. – New York Times

Iranian officials have voiced dismay at Russia for backing a US-led tougher round of sanctions against Tehran, and followed it by criticising Moscow for failing to deliver an anti-aircraft missile system that would enable Iran to guard its nuclear facilities against a US or Israeli strike. The fallout has led some analysts to question the closeness of a relationship that previously appeared to be airtight. – The National

Iran may escape censure at a meeting of the 189 signatories of a global anti-nuclear arms pact, despite growing concerns that Tehran might be developing atomic weapons, according to a draft declaration…A draft declaration prepared by conference president Libran Cabactulan of the Philippines fails to mention Iran or its nuclear program, though it names India, Pakistan and Israel as NPT holdouts. Diplomats said Iran had threatened to veto any final declaration if it was named. The draft also names North Korea, which pulled out of the NPT several years ago. - Reuters

Laura Rozen reports: Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Rep. Howard Berman (D-Ca.), the co-chairs of the Iran sanctions conference committee, have agreed to slow down Congressional Iran sanctions until the end of June, given the progress the Obama administration has shown getting consensus from all the permanent members for a new United Nations Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran. - Politico

Iran's puritanical guardians of morality have stepped up their cultural war against those who dress too modern for their tastes, sharpening class and social tensions just two weeks before the anniversary of the nation's disputed presidential elections. – Baghdad and Beyond

Massoumeh Torfeh writes: Cinema has, in the last decade, played an increasingly active political role in Iran. Most film and documentary makers, as well as TV serial producers, have used the smallest loophole in Iran's censorship to make socio-political protests. - Guardian
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Iraq

Election authorities in Iraq rejected final appeals on Tuesday against the results of a March parliamentary election, which will now move to the Supreme Court for certification. - Reuters

U.S. troops are continuing to pull away from a front-line role in security operations. But a mission last month also reflected a generally cautious approach to targeting an insurgent group that, unlike al-Qaida and its brethren, retains significant public support among Iraq’s Sunni minority. American troops have coaxed Iraqi units into several large-scale operations against the group, known as the Men of the Army of al-Naqshbandi, or the JRTN. But U.S. officers acknowledge that local security officials — themselves mostly Sunnis — remain either sympathetic to the group or at least hesitant to view it as a serious threat. – Stars and Stripes
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Obama Administration

Josh Rogin reports: In this era of hyper partisanship in Congress, there's one thing leading Democrats and Republicans can agree on: They want Leon Panetta, not James Clapper, to be named the next director of national intelligence. – The Cable

John Yoo writes: The framers designed the presidency to play a modest role at home, using the veto to check Congress’s excesses. In foreign affairs, however, the chief executive should enjoy flexible powers to grapple with challenges abroad for which Congress is ill suited. Ms. Kagan seems to harbor a reverse image of the original presidency — vigorous domestically, constrained internationally. The Senate hearings next month on her nomination will be our last chance to find out what Elena Kagan really believes. With the nation fighting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and locked in a struggle with Al Qaeda, her views on executive power may be the most important ones to learn more about. – New York Times
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United Kingdom

William Hague plans to visit India over the summer as Britain’s new Government tries to turn cultural and trade ties with the emerging superpower into a “genuinely special relationship”. The new priority given to relations with Delhi was mentioned in the Queen’s Speech, which emphasised the need for “an enhanced partnership with India”. The Foreign Secretary’s aides later confirmed that the country was considered vital to forging a “distinctive British foreign policy”. Before the election Mr Hague said that Britain needed to reach out beyond traditional allies in the US and Europe and that has remained a priority for the coalition Government. – Times of London
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Defense

House Republicans are preparing to mount a vigorous defense of the “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy President Bill Clinton implemented in 1993. GOP lawmakers in the lower chamber are poised to vote en masse against the defense authorization bill if it includes an amendment to repeal the law barring gays and lesbians from serving openly in the U.S. military. – The Hill

Defense Secretary Robert Gates has directed the U.S. military services to adopt a set of counterinsurgency tools modeled after ones instituted in Afghanistan by Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, said a senior Pentagon official. Gates on May 24 signed a directive ordering the services to "take McChrystal's COIN training and proficiency standards ... and adapt those for the whole force," Garry Reid, deputy assistant secretary of defense for special operations and combat terrorism, told Defense News May 25. – Defense News

The U.S. Navy on May 25 released the final version of its Naval Operations Concept, but the document held few surprises and did not discuss how a shrinking Navy can sustain current operations tempo. – Defense News

The dominance of the U.S. space industry is threatened by European and Asian firms, the Pentagon's industrial policy chief said May 25. "We're at a tipping point with our space industry," Brett Lambert said at a forum on the strength of the space industrial base hosted by the George C. Marshall Institute think tank. "We have for so long been the dominant player and the most technologically advanced player." – Defense News

Colin Clark reports: An important congressional supporter of the second engine for the Joint Strike fighter is “pessimistic” about the coming House floor vote on whether the engine should be funded in the House defense authorization bill. The reason for the supporter’s pessimism is simple: the majority of House lawmakers know little about defense issues and the issues surrounding the F135, made by Pratt, and the F136, made by General Electric and Rolls Royce, are highly complex. So the vote will rest largely on coalitions, the interests of major donors and constituents and horse trading — not on the merits of the issue. – DoD Buzz
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Middle East

When Kuwait’s two largest Islamist groups sifted through the ashes of last year’s election, they were left with the reality that voters had deserted them in droves and their representation in the National Assembly was reduced by more than half. The defeats spurred the conservatives into long periods of introspection and now two new leaders have emerged. Both have been charged with rebuilding the mandate that has made the groups major parliamentary forces in the past. – The National

A Yemeni airstrike targeting al Qa’eda missed its mark today and killed a mediator by mistake, prompting members of his tribe to blow up a crude oil pipeline in clashes that followed, a provincial official said. The mediator, who had been trying to persuade members of the global militant group to surrender, was killed instantly in a predawn strike on his car in the mountainous Maarib province that also killed three other people. – The National

Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Tuesday the Shi'ite guerrilla group would attack all military, civilian and commercial ships heading toward Israel's Mediterranean coasts in any future war. "If you (Israel) put our coasts under siege in any future war, I say all military, civilian and commercial ships heading to Palestine's coasts on the Mediterranean will be under the fire of the Islamic resistance fighters," he said via a video-link in a ceremony marking the 10th anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon. - Reuters

The U.S. military and spy agencies have stepped up intelligence gathering using surveillance aircraft, satellites and signals intercepts to track al Qaeda targets in and around their base in Yemen, U.S. officials said on Tuesday. Some of the intelligence is being shared with Yemeni security forces to facilitate their strikes against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), but could also underpin covert U.S. operations against the group and its leaders, the officials said on condition of anonymity. "There is a tremendous amount of focus on that country," a U.S. intelligence official said. An air strike in Yemen on Tuesday has fueled speculation that the U.S. military or CIA have started using unmanned aerial drones to carry out attacks in Yemen. A Yemeni provincial official said the air strike targeted al Qaeda but killed a mediator instead. - Reuters

Asli Aydintasbas writes: Mr. Kilicdaroglu [the newly-elected head of the Turkish opposition party CHP] should take his campaign beyond economic inequality and pledge to expand freedoms in a country hesitating between a Western-style democracy and an illiberal, Russian-style one. He needs to be active on the Kurdish issue and assuage fears that Turkey is slipping away from the West. The AKP came to power with the promise to modernize the archaic, Ataturk-inspired state and expand individual rights. While it did wonders in its first term, since 2007 its reign has been tainted by repressive tactics against the secular media, an effort to control the judiciary, excessive use of wiretapping by law enforcement, and a legal jihad against members of the armed forces in "coup" investigations where the lines between fact and fiction often seem blurry. All of that will likely be on the national agenda now with a more vigorous opposition and a real debate about what matters to most Turks. Mr. Kilicdaroglu may or may not be able to break AKP's hold on power, but he could do wonders for Turkish democracy by bringing a sense of balance and accountability. Faced with a more popular foe, the government may have to temper its worst tendencies. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Europe

Russia criticized on Wednesday the United States' deployment of Patriot missiles in Poland, saying the move did not help security or trust. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said: "Such military activity does not help to strengthen our mutual security, to develop relations of trust and predictability in this region." - Reuters

Taras Kuzio writes: May 13 marked the launch of a new nonpolitical foundation, People First, that believes it has a hitherto untried approach to promoting democracy in Ukraine. Ukraine has been the target of democracy-promoting Western foundations, such as the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), for a quarter of a century. Other bodies, such as the European Union and German, British, Dutch, and Swedish foundations, have promoted democracy since the 1990s. The People First foundation plans the most ambitious such democracy promotion effort to date. It differs from earlier programs in four ways. – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
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Africa

Saif Gaddafi, the leader's second-eldest son, is widely considered a possible successor to his 68-year-old father, who has ruled Libya for more than 40 years. He is competing with two brothers for the leadership, but many Libyans say he is the favorite, not least because of his commitment to political freedoms and free-market reforms. – Washington Post

Sudan has charged a detained opposition journalist with terrorism and espionage and he has been tortured in custody, his lawyers said on Tuesday. - Reuters
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Jamaica

Fierce fighting between Jamaican security forces and gunmen trying to protect a powerful gang leader extended into a third day on Tuesday in Kingston, the Jamaican capital, highlighting a convoluted political system in which Jamaican politicians and crime bosses have long teamed up to share power. – New York Times
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Ideas

David Rivkkin and Lee Casey write: Sixty-eight senators have sent a letter to President Obama urging U.S. ratification of the Ottawa Convention. The 10-year-old treaty, banning the production and use of land mines, has been accepted by over 150 countries, including most of our allies. The U.S., however, should not join this august club. Land mines remain a critical part of America's 21st century security architecture. The demilitarized zone (DMZ) between North and South Korea contains massive minefields. They guard against surprise attacks by numerically superior North Korean infantry who are poised 20 miles from the outskirts of Seoul. Deterring nuclear-armed and consistently erratic North Korea (its most recent provocation was sinking a South Korean warship) is a challenge requiring all the tools in the U.S. military arsenal. Ratifying the Ottawa Convention means dismantling the DMZ minefields. That means an American president might face the unpalatable choice of watching South Korea (and the U.S. forces stationed there) overrun—or using nuclear weapons…Outside Korea, land mines on a grand scale may no longer be an essential part of the U.S. arsenal. But ratifying the Ottawa Convention transforms a policy choice into a legal obligation that, notably, neither Russia nor China (or Iran, North Korea and several other rogue states) have accepted. Unilateral disarmament here is neither smart arms control nor good foreign policy. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

Mihail Khordorkorvsky writes: While world leaders are proving capable of addressing nuclear terrorism, one of the most difficult issues facing the international community, they still must do more to address such evils as corruption, which holds entire peoples and countries hostage. – Washington Post
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Postscript

Five Somali men have protested that they were shark fisherman not pirates despite being intercepted off Somalia's coast after attacking a Dutch vessel with rocket launchers and assault rifles. - Telegraph
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Announcements

FPI has developed Foreign Policy 2010, a briefing book available on the FPI website, which pulls together articles and op-eds from leading thinkers in each of the key foreign policy issue areas. FPI will be updating the briefing book on a regular basis throughout 2010. To suggest additional articles or content for the briefing book, please email info@foreignpolicyi.org.

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Events

Challenges and Opportunities for Peace in Sudan
Senate Foreign Relations Committee
May 26

The Closing of the Muslim Mind
Heritage Foundation
May 26

Has US Engagement Improved the Prospects for Reform in the Arab World?
Freedom House/Project on Middle East Democracy
May 26

Thailand on the Brink
National Endowment for Democracy
May 26

WSARA 2009 Progress Report
Center for Strategic and International Studies
May 26

How Enemies Become Friends: The Sources of Stable Peace
New America Foundation
May 26

The Politics of Bosnia-Herzegovina
United States Institute of Peace
May 26

Arsenal of Democracy
Center for American Progress
May 26

China, Latin America, and the US: The New Triangle
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
May 26

US-Mexico Security Cooperation
Border, Maritime, and Global Counterterrorism Subcommittee
House Foreign Affairs Committee
May 27

The Art of Command in Counterinsurgency Operations
American Enterprise Institute
May 27

The Grand Jihad
Heritage Foundation
May 27

The Role of Media in Humanitarian Crises
National Endowment for Democracy
May 27

UN Special Representative Ad Melkert on Iraq's Transition
United States Institute of Peace
May 27

Police in Counterinsurgency
United States Institute of Peace
May 27

Hudson Institute Film Festival
Hudson Institute
May 31

The Rise of Anwar al-Awlaki
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
June 1

(NYC) - The Changing Middle East: A First-Hand Assessment from the Ground
Foreign Policy Initiative
June 2

From Islam to America
American Enterprise Institute
June 2

From the Lisbon Treaty to the Eurozone Crisis: New Beginning or Unraveling of Europe?
Brookings Instiution
June 2

Threats to Maritime Security
United States Institute of Peace
June 2

A Screening of the Oscar-nominated Film Katyn
Heritage Foundation
June 3

Trends and Implications of Military Expenditures in South America
Brookings Institution
June 3

Cybersecurity Discussion w/Gen. Keith Alexander, Director of the NSA
Center for Strategic and International Studies
June 3

China, India, and the Future of Democracy
National Endowment for Democracy
June 3

Could Pakistan's Private Sector Promote Stability and Peace?
United States Institute of Peace
June 3

Haiti: A Forward Look
United States Institute of Peace
June 3

Iran: The Year of Reckoning
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 4

Prospects for Change in Turkmenistan
National Endowment for Democracy
June 3

Neoconservatism: The Biography of a Movement
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 7

Russia as a Donor: What is Behind the Increase in Multilateral Aid?
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 7

Shifting the Balance in Asia: Indian Military Modernization
American Enterprise Institute
June 8

Can A Nuclear Iran Be Contained?
Bipartisan Policy Center
June 8

Constitutionalism in Africa
United States Institute of Peace
June 8

Achieving Nuclear Fuel Sustainability: State of the Nuclear Renaissance
Heritage Foundation
June 9

Terrorists, Drug Traffickers, and Gangs in Latin America
Hudson Institute
June 9

Overcoming Pakistan's Population Challenge
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 9

Afghanistan: Will the Push Into Kandahar Turn the Tide of the War?
Heritage Foundation
June 10

Bashar's Syria at 10
American Enterprise Institute
June 10

Shaping the Agenda: Security in the 21st Century
Center for A New American Security
June 10

Diversity, Religion, and Reconciliation: A Conversation with Rajmohan Gandhi
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
June 10

President Yanukovych's Economic Policy
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 14

Australian Uranium and India
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 14

Islamic Feminism and Beyond: The New Frontier
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 15

Religious Freedoms in Today's Russia
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 15

How Obama's Vision of a Nuclear-Free World Weakens American Security
Heritage Foundation
June 16

Asia Policy Assembly 2010
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 17

Turkey's New Geopolitics: Challenges and Opportunities
Middle East Institute
June 18

The State of Women Internationally
Young Professionals in Foreign Policy
June 23

A Chance in Hell: The Men Who Triumphed Over Iraq's Deadliest City
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
June 30

China and the Persian Gulf
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 12

India's Maoist Insurgency
Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
July 15

The Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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