FPI Overnight Brief: May 21, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief

May 21, 2010

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Obama Administration

Dennis C. Blair, the president's most senior intelligence adviser, became the first high-profile departure from President Obama's national security team on Thursday. Mr. Blair, director of national intelligence, announced his resignation, effective May 28 in a five-sentence statement that ended with praise for the national intelligence bureaucracy he will no longer command. "Keep it up - I will be cheering for you," he said. A U.S. official in a position to know said, "We have been interviewing several strong candidates to be his replacement." Among the candidates are former Deputy Defense Secretary John J. Hamre, now president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies; retired Air Force Lt. Gen. James R. Clapper, the deputy undersecretary of defense for intelligence; and Michael G. Vickers, a former CIA official and currently the Pentagon's assistant secretary of defense for special operations. – Washington Times

Charles Krauthammer writes: Given Obama's policies and principles, Turkey and Brazil are acting rationally. Why not give cover to Ahmadinejad and his nuclear ambitions? As the United States retreats in the face of Iran, China, Russia and Venezuela, why not hedge your bets? There's nothing to fear from Obama, and everything to gain by ingratiating yourself with America's rising adversaries. After all, they actually believe in helping one's friends and punishing one's enemies. – Washington Post
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Koreas

Seoul's dramatic accusation this week that North Korea torpedoed one of its warships, killing 46 sailors, sets up what could be one of the most combustible situations in the peninsula in years -- one that could force South Korea and its top ally, the United States, to make hard decisions. Analysts say the matter must be carefully managed with a series of steps that would punish North Korea without leading to a new conflict. – Washington Post

China urged restraint Thursday after South Korea formally accused North Korea of sinking one of its warships two months ago, spotlighting Beijing's decisive role in what happens next…Korea next week plans to take its findings to the United Nations Security Council in hopes of securing some form of international condemnation or penalty against the North. China, North Korea's biggest benefactor and closest ally, holds one of Security Council's five permanent seats and can veto any action. The issue dominated the bi-weekly news conference Thursday at China's foreign ministry. Spokesman Ma Zhaoxu reacted cautiously and said China would conduct an "assessment" of the evidence, though not a formal investigation. Asked whether China doubted South Korea's findings, Mr. Ma repeated that China would assess them. "All parties should stay calm and exercise restraint," he said. – Wall Street Journal

Obama administration officials Thursday condemned North Korea for a torpedo attack they believe sank a South Korean naval patrol ship in March, and began a diplomatic effort through the United Nations to crack down on Pyongyang. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is expected to signal strong U.S. support for a new round of U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea when she visits Seoul on Monday, officials said. She also will urge support of the proposed sanctions while in China, which has more leverage over North Korea than any other country, officials said. – Los Angeles Times
One man who will be closely following developments on the Korean peninsula as tensions flare between Pyongyang and Seoul will be a 37-year-old army defector from North Korea based in London. Following in the footsteps of Marx and Engels, Jooil Kim is using London as a base to plot revolution with the aim of toppling one of the world's most tyrannical regimes.. - Guardian

Editorial: This is a moment to insist on consequences for North Korea's behavior -- and to put China on the spot. As it happens, a high-level U.S. delegation, including Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, is headed for Beijing this weekend; Ms. Clinton should put North Korea at the top of the agenda. If China wishes to shield the regime in Pyongyang after it has been caught committing an act of war, it should be obliged to do so in the full view of its Asian neighbors, beginning with South Korea. – Washington Post

China is [North Korea’s] economic lifeline, as was shown again when Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s dictator, made a hasty trip to Beijing not long after the Cheonan incident to beg for continued economic support. At that point, Beijing had an excuse, in public at least, to take his claims of innocence at face value. It no longer does. - Economist

Michael Magan writes: UNSC sanctions and condemnation are a necessary but not sufficient step. Now is the time for both South Korea and the United States to step up and define a firm policy towards North Korea. The Lee administration needs to stop pursuing a reactive policy and firmly declare its position towards the North. South Korea should preempt another North Korean provocation by defining new rules of engagement such that if North Korea seeks reunification or economic growth, it must adhere to an international framework with clear conditions and benchmarks. The burden of compliance must be put on the North. – Shadow Government

Joshua Stanton writes: Conventional deterrence is failing because Kim Jong Il knows our low tolerance for risk and loss of life, limitations that he does not share. The sine qua non of deterrence is a credible threat. But Kim Jong Il no longer fears the U.S. Air Force; he only fears the people of North Korea. Specifically, he fears that they’ll do to him what they did to Nicolae Ceaucescu. Restoring deterrence still won’t disarm Kim Jong Il or prevent him from continuing to proliferate nuclear materials and technology. The only way to do that is to bring his misrule to an end at the lowest possible cost in human lives. Our challenge here is to deny Kim Jong Il the resources, the means, and the time to miniaturize, export, or launch a nuclear weapon. To achieve this requires us to contain, constrict, and collapse Kim Jong Il’s regime through a combination of economic strangulation and political subversion. – The New Ledger

Patrick Cronin writes: We may never know the full truth behind the torpedo attack until the day when North Korean archives are open to the public. Perhaps it was indeed Kim Jong-il himself who wanted to undermine pressure to return to the Six Party Talks. But regardless of the reason for the torpedo attack, cautious restraint and alliance solidarity remain the best policy course. When the North Korean regime eventually does transition—and perhaps collapse—it will be Seoul that will be in the strongest position to help bring about a new peace. – The Diplomat
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China

The United States on Thursday dispatched the first of a flotilla of senior officials to China for high-level economic and security meetings that are likely to be overshadowed by the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and the deepening debt crisis in Greece, which some fear will infect other European countries. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner are leading a delegation that will include nearly 200 policy makers and advisers, one of the largest groups of American officials ever to travel to a foreign capital for a single set of meetings. On the agenda: trying to balance the economic relationship between China and the United States, breaking down trade and investment barriers, and moving China toward a market-driven exchange rate. – New York Times

The authorities have identified a new threat to political stability in the restive region of Tibet: photocopiers. Fearful that Tibetans might mass-copy incendiary material, public security officials intend to more tightly control printing and photocopying shops, according to reports from the Tibetan capital, Lhasa. A regulation now in the works will require the operators of printing and photocopying shops to obtain a new permit from the government, the Lhasa Evening News reported this month. They will also be required to take down identifying information about their clients and the specific documents printed or copied, the newspaper said. – New York Times

Michael Auslin writes: Chinese probing is followed by a period of quiet, later broken by new claims and more assertive exercises. Throw in a wildcard like North Korea, which may decide to sink another ship, South Korean or not, and the maritime realm starts to appear decidedly treacherous. The natural response in the region is to look to the U.S. Navy for the ultimate guarantee of stability. Yet that service has been put on notice by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates that it will have to make do with smaller budgets, possibly fewer aircraft carriers and maybe no next-generation ballistic-missile submarine. At the very time that China is flexing its maritime muscle, the trend lines are heading in the wrong direction. The U.S. will continue to play its stabilizing role in the western Pacific, but with a more uncertain future and eventually, should any type of conflict break out, with greater risk. That ultimately means more risk for the Asia-Pacific as a whole. – Wall Street Journal Asia

Evan Feigenbaum writes: tensions are growing between the way China spends its money abroad and its goal of being viewed as a responsible global player. Chinese leaders face increasingly stark choices about whether and how to move China closer to the international mainstream. And at least some recent Chinese decisions suggest that changes might be afoot. – Foreign Policy
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Iran

A draft U.N. resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran, including limits on global arms transfers, will not block the controversial transfer of Russian S-300 missiles to the Iranian military, according to U.S. and Russian officials. The Obama administration had opposed the S-300 sale because the system is highly effective against aircraft and some missiles. The CIA has said the S-300 missiles, which have been contracted by Tehran but not delivered, will be used to defend Iranian nuclear facilities. – Washington Times

Alex Vatanka writes: For the moment, the opposition continues to fully adhere to the principle of non-violence. But pushing the IRGC back into the garrisons does not seem to be in the offing. If anything, the recent organizational and personnel changes in the IRGC, combined with daily warnings to the opposition from its senior commanders, indicate that at the moment the primary objective of the IRGC is to establish itself as the undisputed power broker in the Islamic Republic. – Journal of International Security Affairs

Michael Anton writes: [T]he damage has been done. Iran has done what it always does when confronted by the specter of international consensus—feint, make a deal, concede on the margins, buy time. In this instance that time has been bought very cheaply. Its value to Iran’s burgeoning nuclear program is nonetheless priceless. – The Weekly Standard Blog

Daniel Goure writes: Take the model of North Korean brinksmanship demonstrated by its sinking of the South Korean Navy vessel and apply it to Iran and the Middle East. Both nations see themselves as unique players on the world stage. They desire that their respective regions, but really the entire world, revolve around them. Both engage in confrontational behavior precisely in order to provoke reactions. Both justify and even encourage punitive measures such as sanctions in order to justify their isolation from the world community and their militancy. Both need a protective shield under which they can engage in an undeclared war against their enemies. The North has such a shield. Iran is on its way to getting one. – Early Warning Blog
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Turkey

It was supposed to be a triumph for Turkey’s new foreign policy. But only days after the signing of a deal designed by Turkey and Brazil to cool down the row over Iran’s nuclear programme, tensions are rising between the government in Ankara and its key ally, the United States, over Washington’s insistence on going ahead with fresh sanctions against Tehran. – The National

Ahmet Davutoglu writes: Turkey's foreign-policy objectives and its vision of how to achieve them are very clear. Turkey has multiple goals over the next decade: First, it aims to achieve all EU membership conditions and become an influential EU member state by 2023. Second, it will continue to strive for regional integration, in the form of security and economic cooperation. Third, it will seek to play an influential role in regional conflict resolution. Fourth, it will vigorously participate in all global arenas. Fifth, it will play a determining role in international organizations and become one of the top 10 largest economies in the world. These goals aim to build a strong and respectable Turkey that is able to make an original contribution to the world community. To achieve them, Turkey must make progress in all directions and in every field, take an interest in every issue related to global stability, and contribute accordingly. This collective effort will make Turkey a global actor in this century. Turkey's actions are motivated by a great sense of responsibility, entrusted to it by its rich historical and geographic heritage, and by a profound consciousness of the importance of global stability and peace. – Foreign Policy

Melik Kaylan writes: Buffering Iran from Western animosity might avoid trouble in the short term, but he should take a closer look at the regime in Tehran. No matter if Turkey wants "zero problems," Erdogan cannot unilaterally make the mullahs peaceable with gestures of neutrality. Investing in pan-Islamic tolerance and harmony looks and sounds great--who wouldnt want it?--but the realities of the Islamic world belie the ideal. As it stands, Erdogan is simply postponing a massive reckoning. He's doing it by weakening his own military and empowering the expansion of age-old rival powers. Peace now? Sure. Peace in the future? Very unlikely. - Forbes
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Middle East

Palestinian negotiators have surprised Washington with a bold opening offer to White House peace envoy George Mitchell that includes concessions on territory beyond those offered in past Palestinian-Israeli peace talks, according to officials briefed on the current negotiations. The Palestinians' unexpected offer has been greeted warily in Israel and by some members of the Obama administration, according to these officials. Palestinians believe Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has no intention of reaching a peace deal and thus may have calculated they can make generous offers without having to worry about following through, these officials said. – Wall Street Journal

Iraq’s leading politicians — government ministers, clerics and sheiks, not a single woman among them — gathered Thursday over a lunch of roasted meat and rice at the arabesque Peace Palace on the bank of the Tigris. It was an effort to foster reconciliation after the country’s intensely disputed election, but ended with little of it in evidence. – New York Times

Like a lot of Yemen's countryside - northern and southern - a network of sheiks and local leaders, not Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime, governs the area. But unlike other regions, where sheiks peacefully rule their private fiefdoms with the apparent blessings of the central government, much of the south is held by a growing separatist movement that seeks to end the 20-year-old union between northern and southern Yemen. – Washington Times

Mohammed ElBaradei’s return to Egypt three months ago reinvigorated the country’s opposition movement and generated widespread optimism that change was coming. While hopes are still high, Mr ElBaradei’s prolonged absences from the public scene since his return have many Egyptians wondering where exactly their new-found leader is and what he is doing. – The National

More than a hundred [tribes] are spread across Iraq, some with a quarter of a million members, many of them cutting across sectarian lines. Local politics has been run mainly by tribal leaders ever since they wrested control of vast stretches of land from insurgent groups two or three years ago, bringing a measure of calm to Iraq. For the first time, therefore, the tribes command the national stage. With the main political parties deadlocked after an inconclusive election, the tribes are courted as potential allies by leaders on all sides, and could act as one of several kingmakers. - Economist
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Nuclear Weapons/Missile Defense

Doug Feith and Abram Shulsky write: Moving toward "nuclear zero" is a signature theme of this administration. President Barack Obama's vision of a world without nuclear weapons is certainly grand. The problem is that our current policies lack coherence and rest on other-worldly assumptions. – Wall Street Journal

Baker Spring and Owen Graham write: When viewed together, it is clear that the treaty’s Preamble, the Russian unilateral statement on missile defense, and remarks by senior Russian officials suggest an attempt by Russia to limit or constrain future U.S. missile defense capabilities by threatening to withdraw from the treaty should the U.S. expand its current capabilities. And by outward appearances, the Russians appear to have succeeded. – The Foundry
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Afghanistan

The Obama administration, after pulling out all the stops last week to show some love and affection to President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, is giving the cold shoulder to Mr. Karzai’s vanquished political rival, Abdullah Abdullah. – New York Times

A leading Afghan politician is warning American lawmakers that "the opportunity is shrinking" to salvage the U.S effort in Afghanistan that he said is close to irreversible failure. Abdullah Abdullah, who is also the former Afghan foreign minister, told The Washington Examiner, that the Afghan people are losing hope in the efforts of U.S. and NATO forces, and that the coalition mission has "no consistent message for the people of Afghanistan." He said he has shared that warning with several U.S. senators and House members of both parties in key committee positions during a series of meetings in recent days. – Washington Examiner

An Afghan Government delegation has met representatives of Afghan insurgent groups in the Maldives, it was claimed yesterday, and is to do so again this weekend. The alleged talks were confirmed by Maldives Government officials. Muhammad Zuhair, a Maldives Government spokesman, said that 15 Afghan government representatives took part with seven Taleban members. The Afghan Government denied, however, that its representatives were present in the Maldives and insisted that its focus for a reconciliation with the Taleban and other groups remained the “Peace Jirga” of tribal representatives that is to be held in Kabul at the end of the month. – Times of London
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Defense

Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) is in a politically awkward position on the Pentagon’s “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. Democratic leaders, working with gay-rights activists, are looking for ways to scrap the ban on openly gay men and women serving in the military. But Skelton, a GOP target this fall and one of the original architects of the ban, opposes efforts to repeal it. The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee has been able so far to fend off efforts to alter the law. But Skelton is facing an uphill battle when the House votes on the defense authorization bill, which may occur next week. Repealing the ban could become a contentious debate complicating the passage of the bill that Skelton will manage on the House floor. – The Hill

The U.S. House Armed Services Committee has approved a provision overhauling a special panel charged with assessing Quadrennial Defense Reviews. The panel approved its version of 2011 defense authorization legislation May 19, a bill that would create a new QDR review panel with eight of 10 members appointed by congressional defense committee leaders. According to the provision, the defense secretary would appoint the other two members. "The panel would allow for a truly independent review of the QDR and would provide guidance to the secretary on the conduct of the QDR to ensure that the review adequately addresses all the required elements," the panel's summary states. – Defense News

About $65 billion for U.S. Navy and Marine Corps procurement and research-and-development programs was approved late May 20 by the House Armed Services Committee - nearly 9 percent of the total $726 billion markup for the fiscal 2011 defense authorization bill. The committee, with few exceptions, voted to support the Obama administration's budget requests. – Defense News

The U.S. military's workhorse rifle - used in battle for the last 40 years - is proving less effective in Afghanistan against the Taliban's more primitive but longer range weapons. As a result, the U.S. is reevaluating the performance of its standard M-4 rifle and considering a switch to weapons that fire a larger round largely discarded in the 1960s. – Associated Press

Greg Grant and Colin Clark report: Pentagon sources tell DoD Buzz that planners aren’t just looking at cutting tail; serious cuts in tooth are also being considered. Specifically,senior Pentagon leaders may cut Army and Marine force levels back to where they were before Gates boosted the land forces in early 2007 by 92,000; 65,000 additional soldiers and 27,000 more Marines. The plan would be to slowly ramp down the boots starting by fiscal year 2014, eventually getting the Marines back to 180,000 total and the Army to 482,000. That plan is, of course, contingent on the continued withdrawal of troops from Iraq and at least some reduction in Afghanistan troop levels. Such reflects the thinking among some Pentagon strategists that the counterinsurgency wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have swung the military far from its traditional way of fighting, which is to rely on firepower and standoff strike to dispatch foes, rather than engage in the nasty close quarters combat where American high-tech advantages are nullified. – DoD Buzz
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The War

The House Armed Services Committee approved legislation Wednesday that would require the Pentagon's inspector general to conduct an investigation into whether defense attorneys for detainees at the detention facility at U.S. Naval Base Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, acted improperly…The detainee measure was sponsored by Rep. Jeff Miller, Florida Republican, and directs the Pentagon inspector general to investigate whether attorneys may have acted improperly or violated laws related to detainee operations at the Cuban prison. The amendment still faces a full House vote as part of the bill, which then must be reconciled with the Senate version. – Washington Times
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Russia/Ukraine

There is no point sulking or being belligerent with the West, the Kremlin seems to have decided. As Mr Putin has said, Russia should present a smiling face to the world. A smile, however, does not alter nature; the Russian shift has occurred without significant change inside the country. Russia has not become less corrupt or more democratic. Russian troops remain in part of Georgia; Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the former Yukos boss, is still in jail. Russia has not abandoned its claim to a privileged interest in the neighbourhood. - Economist

Andrew Wilson writes: Mr. Yanukovich has now signed a huge number of agreements with Russia, most notably the deal to swap an extra 25 years for the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Crimea for a 30 percent reduction in the price of gas. Ukraine has also agreed to big deals on cooperation in the nuclear industry and in aviation, a 10-year economic cooperation plan, and common positions on Transnistria and security in the Black Sea region that have disturbed neighbors like Moldova and Georgia. And Mr. Yanukovich has backed Mr. Medvedev’s pet European Security Initiative and its goal to “eliminate the dangerous dividing lines that have appeared in the European region over the past decade.”…This new Ukrainian foreign policy is something of a mystery. Even some old hands are wondering why Ukraine is huddling so close to Russia, and why it has conceded so much so quickly. – International Herald Tribune

Sacha Tessier-Stall and Kateryna Zarembo write: It is too early to say that President Yanukovich is intentionally helping Russia “steal” Ukraine from the West. He is more positively inclined toward Moscow than his predecessor, but the truth is that he has been pushed into a corner by a combination of geopolitical ineptness, special interests and pre-existing problems. The real question is whether he takes his obligations (constitutional and otherwise) seriously. If he doesn’t, both the West and Russia are in for unpleasant surprises. – International Herald Tribune
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NATO

Conrad Black writes: NATO should become the foundation of a new alliance system, in which all passable democracies (a criterion the original NATO waived in several cases) agree on the defense of their own borders, including a carefully crafted policy of preemptive assault against plausibly apprehended terrorism, including defined failed states. NATO could also make parallel agreements with important non-democratic states such as Russia and China. – National Review Online

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Japan

Japan and the U.S. plan to settle a fight over a U.S. airbase this month, largely in line with Washington's wishes, reports said May 20, a day before Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Tokyo. Under the deal, expected to be officially announced on May 28, the base would be relocated within Okinawa island rather than moved elsewhere, as agreed by previous conservative governments in Tokyo and Washington. - AFP
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Mexico

Mexican President Felipe Calderón, speaking to a joint session of Congress Thursday, pleaded for more help in limiting the flow of weapons to Mexico, saying they were contributing to the devastating drug violence in his country. In a speech punctuated by applause and standing ovations, Calderón thanked lawmakers for providing hundreds of millions of dollars to bolster his country's fight against drug gangs. He emphasized his government's resolve to confront the narco-traffickers, who have killed more than 20,000 people in Mexico in recent years. However, he said, Mexico needs greater U.S. assistance stopping the flow of assault weapons and other deadly arms across the border. – Washington Post
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Africa

A bipartisan group of lawmakers says the Obama administration must speak out against human rights violations in Ethiopia ahead of elections in the Horn of Africa nation on Sunday. In a letter to Johnnie Carson, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, the lawmakers expressed concern that "in the weeks and months prior to the May 23 elections in Ethiopia, the government of Meles Zenawi has acted to suppress democratic opposition voices." According to Human Rights Watch, "the Ethiopian government is waging a coordinated and sustained attack on political opponents, journalists, and rights activists" ahead of the elections. The lawmakers said opposition candidates, including Birtukan Mideksa, have been assaulted or detained by police, and many opposition groups have been prevented from opening local offices. – Washington Times
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Thailand

After a frenzy of shooting, arson and looting, authorities in Thailand imposed a jittery order Thursday, turning the center of the vibrant capital into an armed camp and extending for three days a nighttime curfew there and in other parts of the country convulsed by unrest. – Washington Post

Analysis: The country’s divisions and enmities have only deepened. Nothing has been resolved. The battle for power between social classes and between the politicians who manipulate them continues. An early election promised by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva is off the table after protest leaders rejected it last week and vowed to fight on. The leaders were arrested Wednesday as the final battle for the protest site began, and there seemed to be no one left with whom the government could negotiate…Hopes for a peaceful election, whenever it comes, seem faint, and in an increasingly polarized and violent political arena, it seems unlikely that the loser will accept the results. – New York Times

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