FPI Overnight Brief: May 7, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
May 7, 2010

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United Kingdom

After one of the most passionately contested elections in decades, the opposition Conservative Party made big gains in near-complete results on Friday but the country seemed headed for electoral stalemate and possibly days of wrangling to form a new government. Barring a late swing, results declared in more than 600 of the 650 parliamentary constituencies pointed to the likelihood of a hung parliament with no single party commanding a majority and no definitive indication about the likely complexion of a new government. What seemed sure was that the Conservatives, led by David Cameron, would win the largest number of seats, dozens more than Labour, with the third party, the left-of-center Liberal Democrats, failing to make the gains forecast before Thursday’s vote. Without a majority, Mr. Cameron — and the country — could be heading for days of agonizing uncertainty as the two main parties set about trying to outmaneuver each other for power. Under Britain’s uncodified constitution, parties with a plurality of the votes may form a minority government, as happened in the 1970s. But any new government must be able to withstand an early confidence vote in Parliament. In any event, the result seemed to spell the end of a 13-year run of undiluted Labour power that began with a landslide victory for Tony Blair in 1997. By Friday morning, the Conservatives had gained 90 parliamentary seats, Labour had lost 84 and the Liberal Democrats were down by six seats compared to the 2005 vote. A BBC projection forecast that the Conservatives would secure 307 seats, Labour 261 and the Liberal Democrats an unexpectedly low 54. Even with those losses for Labour, British rules permit the incumbent prime minister to remain in office and try to negotiate an alliance. – New York Times

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Times Square

The Pakistani-American man accused of trying to detonate a car bomb in Times Square has told investigators that he drew inspiration from Anwar al-Awlaki, a Yemeni-American cleric whose militant online lectures have been a catalyst for several recent attacks and plots, an American official said Thursday. The would-be bomber, Faisal Shahzad, was inspired by the violent rhetoric of Mr. Awlaki, said the official, who would speak of the investigation only on condition of anonymity. “He listened to him, and he did it,” the official said, referring to Saturday’s attempted bombing on a busy street in Times Square…A senior military official said Thursday that Mr. Shahzad has told interrogators that he met with Pakistani Taliban operatives in North Waziristan in December and January. Later he received explosives training from the same operatives, said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the case…It is no surprise to counterterrorism officials to find that an accused terrorist had been influenced by Mr. Awlaki, 39, now hiding in Yemen, who has emerged as perhaps the most prominent English-speaking advocate of violent jihad against the United States…Mr. Awlaki’s English-language online lectures and writings have turned up in more than a dozen terrorism investigations in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, counterterrorism experts have said. And in two recent United States cases, Mr. Awlaki communicated directly with the accused perpetrator. – New York Times

A man who guided Shahzad from Karachi to the country's northwest, Pakistani officials say, was arrested this week at [a] mosque which is affiliated with Jaish-i-Muhammad. The al-Qaeda-linked group is one in a mosaic of domestic jihadist organizations that were created or cultivated by Pakistan's intelligence services to antagonize Indian troops in the disputed region of Kashmir but have gone increasingly rogue. U.S. officials say they are worried about these militant groups based in Punjab province, many of which are banned but still operate freely. The most prominent among them is Lashkar-i-Taiba, suspected in a deadly 2008 siege in Mumbai. The group has changed its legal name, but its leaders remain free. Some elements in Pakistan's security establishment continue to view such groups as assets against India, and Punjabi politicians court them for political support. It is uncertain whether Pakistan would take aggressive action against the organizations, even if they are found to be definitively connected to the Times Square bombing attempt. "There's never been any clampdown on any of these groups that were fighting in Kashmir. That's not just Lashkar, it's everyone," said Ahmed Rashid, who has written extensively on militants in Pakistan and Afghanistan. "That's a problem." - Washington Post

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Pakistan

The evidence of ties between the man accused of being the Times Square bomber and Pakistani militants has intensified debate inside the Obama administration about expanding America’s military presence in Pakistan, with some officials making the case to increase the number of Special Operations troops working with Pakistani forces in the country’s western mountains. The American military presence in Pakistan has already grown substantially over the past year, and now totals more than two hundred troops, part of a largely secret program to share intelligence with Pakistani Army and paramilitary troops and train them to battle militant groups. But the failed bombing in Times Square, and evidence that the accused man, Faisal Shahzad, received training in a camp run by the Pakistani Taliban, has given support to those who want to expand the mission. In particular, some inside the administration believe that the C.I.A. program of killing militants from the air is insufficient for preventing attacks on the West, and that an expanded training mission might raise confidence in Pakistan’s military enough to launch an offensive in the militant sanctuary of North Waziristan, in the tribal areas. “There is a growing sense that there will need to be more of a boots on the ground strategy,” said one Obama administration official. Officials, who requested anonymity to discuss strategy surrounding a program that is technically secret, emphasized that any new troops in Pakistan would serve as advisers and trainers, not as combat forces…Officials said there was now discussion about presenting Pakistan’s government with a formal request to dispatch more Special Operations troops to the country. American officials believe they have improved relations with Islamabad in recent months, and that this might be a particularly opportune time to press the case. – New York Times

The Pakistani Taliban, which American investigators suspect were behind the attempt to bomb Times Square, have in recent years combined forces with Al Qaeda and other groups, threatening to extend their reach and ambitions, Western diplomats, intelligence officials and experts say. Since the group’s formation in 2007, the main mission of the Pakistani Taliban has been to maintain their hold on territory in Pakistan’s tribal areas to train fighters for jihad against American and NATO forces in Afghanistan and, increasingly, to strike at the Pakistani state as the military pushes into these havens. Pakistan’s military offensives and intensifying American drone strikes have degraded their capabilities. But the Pakistani Taliban have sustained themselves through alliances with any number of other militant groups, splinter cells, foot soldiers and guns-for-hire in the areas under their control. Those groups have “morphed,” a Western diplomat said in a recent interview. Their common agenda, training and resource sharing have made it increasingly difficult to distinguish one from another. The alliances have also added to their skills and tactics and list of shared targets. “They trade bomb makers and people around,” a senior United States intelligence official said Thursday in an interview. “It’s becoming this witches’ brew.” The senior intelligence official said that in recent years the overall ability and lethality of these groups had dropped, but that the threat to individual countries like the United States had increased somewhat because the groups cooperated against a range of targets. – New York Times

Sen. Dick Lugar (R-IN) writes: The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act signaled a new dynamic between our countries that shifted the relationship from a strictly security-oriented focus. Although certain aspects of the bill initially created an unfortunate backlash of America-bashing in Pakistan, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton addressed the issue forthrightly and unapologetically during her visit in October and helped deflate the controversy. Such straight talk should be the rule as our countries work to quell the extremism that threatens the safety of our citizens. It is also important to manage expectations. Anti-Americanism runs deep in Pakistan. If we are to break the cycle of high hopes and disappointments that has characterized the relationship, we, with our Pakistani partners, must set goals that are clear and achievable. We must be determined, in the face of inevitable setbacks, in demonstrating our commitment to democracy, pluralism, economic growth, and the fight against extremism… The [Pakistani] government must unite in the goal of using this assistance to create a stronger democracy and governance structure and to build a better foundation for economic growth. Political factions must end the practice of viewing programs and spending proposals as simply threats or opportunities in ongoing squabbles with their rivals. I encourage Pakistan's leaders to use the promise of the Enhanced Partnership Act to unite the government and the country around a set of national objectives and to push for principled compromises on contentious issues so that all sides can go forward together. This will require hard and sustained effort, but without it, Congress and the American people are unlikely to maintain their support for continued in-depth engagement. – Foreign Policy

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Iran

The new chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday rejected Iran’s claim that international inspectors have no right to ask questions about research Tehran has conducted into missile technology and warheads. In an interview on Thursday, Yukiya Amano, a Japanese diplomat who took over at the agency five months ago, said that Iran would not be able to satisfy the world that its nuclear program was peaceful unless it answered a series of questions about its research, its procurement of high technology and the activities of its scientists — including whether they worked on designing a warhead that could be fitted with a nuclear weapon. “We need to have a good understanding of major activities related to nuclear issues,” Mr. Amano said of his investigations of the Iranian program. “I’m not talking about land mines, but things related to nuclear material. If we don’t have a good understanding, we cannot say if all the activities, or all the activities and material, are for peaceful purposes. Credible confidence is needed.”...Mr. Amano’s stance contrasts with the more accommodating style of his predecessor, Mohamed ElBaradei, an Egyptian-born lawyer who served as the agency’s director for a dozen years. Mr. Amano, though he spent most of his career in the cautious world of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, has been praised in recent days by American and other Western diplomats for taking a far more direct stance with Iran, insisting that it answer questions it had refused to talk about since the summer of 2008. – New York Times

In a highly unusual move, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki hosted a dinner Thursday for the 15 members of the U.N. Security Council, including a senior U.S. diplomat, at the Iranian mission's sumptuous Fifth Avenue townhouse in New York, according to Security Council diplomats. The Iranian invitation appeared to be part of a campaign to counter U.S. and European efforts to secure support in the Security Council for a fourth round of sanctions against Tehran. It followed a public relations effort this week by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- including appearances on several American television programs -- to show that Iran's nuclear program is aimed at producing energy, not nuclear weapons. The United States was represented at the dinner, but not by its top diplomat, Susan E. Rice. Alejandro D. Wolff, the second-ranking ambassador at the U.S. mission to the United Nations, attended instead. France was represented by its No. 2 envoy, and Britain sent its No. 3; both countries' top diplomats were out of town. Most other countries sent their top envoys. – Washington Post

Saudi Arabia’s interior minister confirmed that an Iranian spy cell was dismantled in Kuwait at a Gulf security meeting on Wednesday as concerns grow that the case is leading to sectarian tension amid a media clampdown. Prince Nayef bin Abdul Aziz al Saud said after a meeting of the Gulf Co-operation Council’s interior ministers in Riyadh that Kuwait had managed to “break down” a cell connected to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Associated Press reported. Kuwait’s interior minister, Sheikh Jaber al Khalid al Sabah, said at the meeting that the suspects are being investigated by the country’s judiciary. The Kuwaiti government has said little about the espionage network that could cause a serious diplomatic rift between Iran and Kuwait since the story broke in the local press on Saturday. After mounting pressure, a government spokesman confirmed the existence of the investigation on Monday, without providing details, but the Saudi minister is the first to officially link the case with Iran. The IRGC has described the allegations as an attempt by the Zionist media and its proxies to spread phobia against its organisation. Some Kuwaitis are concerned that the case could lead to tension between the country’s Sunni population and its large Shiite minority and, on Tuesday, the public prosecutor banned the media from reporting on the case. – The National

FPI Policy Advisor John Noonan writes: Openly supporting Iran's democratic movement is only half the battle. They need to be disciplined, well supplied, and -- amongst their upper echelons -- tightly regimented. Assuming that the United State has only two vectors of attack here, military or diplomatic, is fallacious. We can start treating the Iranians like we treated other proxy actors during the Cold War. Instead of bullets and bombs, we send gizmos and gadgets -- laptops with encrypted satellite uplinks, radio broadcasting equipment, even iPods and GPS trackers. When an unarmed civilian is gunned down on the street, a video of the brutality should be hot on the internet within minutes. And we shouldn't assume that violence is unavoidable -- training these guys in both passive and active resistance, how to deal with the Mullah's violent militia groups, and how to hit back as a disciplined entity can help level the playing field. We should also consider paying key opposition strategists, activists, and leaders -- so that resistance becomes a full time endeavor, tying that together with a broader strategy -- using outside political and economic influence to start hitting Tehran's centers of gravity, and hitting them hard. Freeze assets, publicly embarrass and discredit Iranian leadership whenever possible (and don't be shy about risking intelligence sources to do so), and use our technological supremacy to hijack, seize, and pirate nodes of communication and messaging. Hack their computers, spread disinformation, disrupt everything that can be disrupted. – The Weekly Standard Blog

William Harris writes: When Iran gets the bomb, the nuclear club will have a crucial new feature. Without an Iranian bomb and barring regime change in Pakistan, we know that no nuclear power will transfer a device to a private army of the religious elect like Hezbollah in Lebanon. With an Iranian bomb, such assurance instantly ends. This is a looming, tangible state of affairs--in contrast to the hype about loose nuclear materials at the April 2010 Washington nuclear security summit. Proponents of containing a nuclear Iran in and around the Obama administration conceive of deterring Iran in standard realist style. The Islamic Republic of Iran, however, has become a hybrid of the government of God and ruthless militarized mafias. It is well practiced in long-range subversion, intimidation, and weapons smuggling. It may be confidently expected to shred so-called containment, especially when equipped with a nuclear aura and facing the quivering potentates of Arabia. In any case, Iran has a strategic extension across the Middle East to the Mediterranean that puts it beyond containment. – Weekly Standard Blog

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Iraq

A Kurdish journalist was kidnapped here in the capital of the semiautonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq,tortured and then found dead with two bullets in the head on a highway, his family and members of the security forces said on Thursday. The family and friends of the journalist, Zardasht Osman, 23, said he was killed because of his scathing articles about the region’s two governing parties and its leaders, including the dominant Barzani family. Mr. Osman was a university student who freelanced for a number of publications and often wrote on the Internet under a pseudonym…Some Kurdish journalists and Mr. Osman’s friends accused members of the security forces, which are controlled by the parties, of direct involvement in the crime. The killing of a journalist has been rare in the Kurdish region, at least in recent years. The authorities have worked hard to ensure a haven for business and oil and gas investments, where thousands of foreigners, including American citizens, live and work freely. But security forces are often accused of intimidating, threatening and assaulting journalists affiliated with opposition parties or critical of the corrupt patronage system fostered by the two governing parties. “This work is beyond the capability of one person or one small group,” read a statement issued on Thursday and signed by 75 Kurdish journalists, editors and intellectuals. “We believe the Kurdistan regional government and its security forces are responsible first and foremost and they are supposed to do everything in order to find this evil hand.” – New York Times

Only 18 percent of Iraqi Shiites surveyed have a favorable view of the Iranian role in Iraqi political affairs, a survey of 3,000 Iraqis indicated. A poll conducted by Pechter Middle East Polls in Princeton, N.J., found that 43 percent of the Iraqi Shiites interviewed in April held a negative view of Iranian ties to their political leaders. Only 18 percent of the Shiites interviewed held a favorable view, the poll found. Shiite Islam is the official religion of Iran while Iraq's Muslim population is about 60 percent Shiite, Sunnis, who comprise about 35 percent of the population, ran the country while Saddam Hussein was in power. The survey, conducted for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the findings run counter to the "conventional wisdom" regarding Iraqi opinions of Iranian political influence. The poll found, meanwhile, that 17 percent of those interviewed had a favorable opinion of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. More than half -- 52 percent -- had a negative opinion of the Iranian president. The Pechter survey indicated that around 66 percent of the Sunnis interviewed expressed dislike for Iranian influence. - UPI

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Russia/New START

President Obama is preparing to revive a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Moscow that his predecessor shelved two years ago in protest of Russia’s war with Georgia, an American ally, administration officials said Thursday. The bid to renew the pact is the latest effort in Mr. Obama’s drive to repair relations with Russia and comes as he seeks Moscow’s support for tough new sanctions against Iran. But word of the possible move has generated consternation in Congress, where some lawmakers were already skeptical of the deal and now worry that Mr. Obama is giving Russia too much. The agreement, which President George W. Bush negotiated before scrapping it in August 2008, would reverse decades of bipartisan policy and allow extensive commercial nuclear trade, technology transfers and joint research between Russia and the United States. It would clear the way for Russia to import, store and possibly reprocess spent nuclear fuel from American-supplied reactors around the world, a potentially lucrative business. Reviving the agreement has been a top priority for Russia since Mr. Obama took office. The two sides have discussed it as a next step in forging a better partnership after the signing of the New Start arms control agreement in Prague last month…Critics said Mr. Obama was too quick to give Russia something it wants without a guarantee of support for two American goals: truly tough United Nations sanctions against Iran for refusing to halt its uranium enrichment program and the cancellation of Russia’s still unfulfilled deal to sell S-300 antiaircraft missiles to Iran.– New York Times

A panel of arms experts critical of the U.S. administration has claimed that Russia bested the United States in a new treaty designed to reduce the two countries' arsenals of long-range nuclear weapons. Speaking at the Nixon Center, James Schlesinger, secretary of defense in the administrations of U.S. Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, said the United States made substantial concessions to the Russians to seal the historic New START signed by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev last month. Schlesinger said he would support ratification only if the Senate — which could receive the document as early as Friday — would provide for new U.S. weapons not prohibited by the treaty. Along those lines, Stephen Rademaker, assistant secretary of state for arms control in President George W. Bush's administration, said Wednesday that it was likely the treaty would be approved. But he said he hoped senators would "ask questions" first about Russian development of new weapons. "The treaty obligates the U.S. to reduce [its arsenal]. The Russians don't have to do anything. They are there already," Rademaker said, referring to the treaty's lowered ceiling of 1,550 long-range nuclear warheads within seven years. "Every hard issue in the treaty is favorable to the Russians," he said. The agreement does not require cuts in short-range or tactical nuclear weapons, which are significant to Russia's overall military posture, said Dimitri Simes, president of the Nixon Center. "While the treaty has addressed Russian concerns about U.S. missile defenses, there are no references in the treaty to major U.S. concerns about many thousands of Russian tactical weapons, particularly in Europe," Simes said. – Associated Press

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Egypt

President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, facing spreading rumors of his failing health, stood to give a half-hour speech on Thursday, belatedly marking Labor Day as well as his return to the Egyptian capital after a two-month absence, the longest since he came to power in 1981. “I find myself today, more than any past time, stronger in will and more determined to not let the advancement in society retreat backwards,” said the 82-year-old president. He vowed to “complete” his promises to make “political reforms that would establish the pillars of democracy” in Egypt. In an indirect reference to the unprecedented protests held in Egypt by workers, professionals and activists from across the board to demand higher wages or call for political reforms, Mr. Mubarak reluctantly said he welcomed their actions as a “healthy phenomenon” while warning against allowing protests to turn into “chaos that may subject Egypt and its sons to the dangers of a relapse.” Mr. Mubarak has been recuperating in the Egyptian seaside resort of Sharm el Sheik since his return from Germany, where he underwent surgery to remove his gall bladder and a growth from his small intestine. His failure to make his annual Labor Day address on May 1 fueled popular speculation over the state of his health, but Egyptian officials maintained that scheduled meetings with foreign dignitaries were to blame. With no vice president or other clear successor to Mr. Mubarak in sight, his recent health crisis amplified public anxiety and a general sense of uncertainty over the future of leadership in Egypt. – New York Times

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The War

Charles Krauthammer writes: The public safety exception should be enlarged to allow law enforcement to interrogate, without Mirandizing, those arrested in the commission of terrorist crimes (and make the answers admissible) -- until law enforcement is satisfied that vital intelligence related to other possible plots and threats to public safety has been sufficiently acquired. This could be done by congressional statute. Or the administration could, in an actual case, refrain from Mirandizing until it had explored the outer limits of any plot -- and then defend its actions before the courts, resting its argument on the Supreme Court's own logic in the Quarles case: "We conclude that the need for answers to questions in a situation posing a threat to the public safety outweighs the need for the [Miranda] rule." Otherwise, we will be left -- when a terrorist shuts up as did the underwear bomber for five weeks -- in the absurd position of capturing enemy combatants and then prohibiting ourselves from obtaining the information they have, and we need, to protect innocent lives. My view is that we should treat enemy combatants as enemy combatants, whether they are U.S. citizens (Shahzad) or not (the underwear bomber). If, however, they are to be treated as ordinary criminals, then at least agree on this: no Miranda rights until we know everything that public safety demands we need to know. – Washington Post

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China

James Kraska writes: China has invested decades in a patient and aggressive campaign to slowly push other countries out of the East China Sea and South China Sea. The US Navy is the main target, as it’s the largest obstacle to Beijing’s strategy. The result: a well-coordinated campaign of legal, political and military pressure—and sometimes aggression—to gradually bring the littoral seas under Chinese domination. – The Diplomat

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Koreas

Investigators probing the deadly sinking of a South Korean navy ship in March near the North have concluded that a torpedo was the source of an explosion that destroyed the vessel, a news report said on Friday. The team of South Korean and foreign investigators found traces of explosives used in torpedoes on several parts of the sunken ship as well as pieces of composite metal used in such weapons, South Korea's Yonhap news agency said quoting a senior government official. South Korean officials have not officially accused the North but made little secret of their belief Pyongyang deliberately torpedoed the 1,200-tonne corvette Cheonan in March near their disputed border in retaliation of a naval firefight last year. The metallic debris and chemical residue appear to be consistent with a type of torpedo made in Germany, indicating the North may have been trying to disguise its involvement by avoiding arms made by allies China and Russia, Yonhap quoted the official as saying. – Reuters

Efforts to restart talks on North Korea's nuclear disarmament must wait until South Korea finds out who sank its warship near their disputed border, Seoul's foreign ministry said Thursday. Spokesman Kim Young-Sun said the United States and China, which hosts the nuclear forum, also agreed that any fresh six-party talks must await the outcome of an investigation into the naval tragedy. President Lee Myung-Bak hinted Tuesday that North Korea was involved in the March 26 sinking of the Cheonan, which cost 46 lives. He promised a "resolute" response when the cause is established following a multinational probe. North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il reportedly expressed readiness to return to the nuclear talks when he met China's President Hu Jintao in Beijing Wednesday, according to Yonhap news agency. The North in April 2009 quit the forum, which groups the two Koreas, China, Russia, Japan and the United States. Analysts say it may resume dialogue in return for badly needed Chinese aid. - AFP

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Southeast Asia

The Burmese pro-democracy party of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi chose to disband Thursday rather than recognize a government edict formally nullifying the party's victory in 1990 elections. Burma's ruling military junta passed a law in March announcing the country's first elections since that 1990 election, which was won by Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy. The law required all political parties to formally re-register to participate in the upcoming elections and officially voided the 1990 results. NLD party officials, interviewed by telephone, said they could not be part of an election that denied the victory they have fought for two decades to claim. Many said participating would make them look like "puppets" of the brutal military regime that has turned Burma into one of the world's most repressive states. – Washington Post

Anti-government protesters in Thailand refused to leave the streets of Bangkok on Friday, but hinted they may be able to strike a deal in coming days to end a deadly crisis that has stifled the economy. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has put forward a plan to end the rallies that have crippled the capital and scared off tourists, but it remained in limbo as rival factions squabbled over details, including a proposed early election in November. "We are not calling off protests as yet," Jaran Ditapichai told Reuters after meeting fellow leaders. "We have a proposal for Abhisit and we will talk about it in more detail later." The stand-off has paralyzed the commercial heart of the capital for nearly two months, but its roots stretch back to the prime ministership of Thaksin Shinawatra -- a populist tycoon ousted in a 2006 military coup -- and the deep social divisions it exposed between Thailand's traditional elite and rural masses..."The deal is still not off the table. There're still more complications, more talks to look forward to. This stalemate could actually last for a while," said Kiatkong Decho, a strategist at CIMB Securities. Abhisit offered to dissolve parliament in the second half of September ahead of an election on November 14 as part of a plan to end a crisis in which 27 people have died and more than 1,000 been wounded in clashes. But that failed to convince the mostly rural and urban poor "red shirt" protesters who have refused to budge from the commercial district, where posh malls and luxury hotels have been forced to close their doors since April 3. - Reuters

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Sunday Shows

As of publication, NBC’s Meet The Press had announced that Attorney General Eric Holder will appear on its program, as had ABC’s This Week. There, he will also be joined by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani.

ENDS

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