FPI Overnight Brief: April 30, 2010

FPI Overnight Brief
April 30, 2010

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Iran

The Iranian opposition leader Mir Hussein Moussavi released a video statement on Thursday calling on workers and teachers to join the reformist cause, in a bold new attempt to broaden and energize the country’s flagging protest movement. The statement came as groups representing laborers and teachers called for demonstrations, and a labor coalition issued its own list of economic grievances to mark International Labor Day, on May 1, opposition Web sites reported. Mr. Moussavi and other opposition leaders have previously urged workers and teachers to join them, but not as directly or as urgently. Now the possibility of laborers taking to the streets — as they did during the 1979 Islamic Revolution — has rattled the hard-line establishment…In his video appeal, Mr. Moussavi said the challenges workers faced — low wages, inflation, economic mismanagement and the inability to create independent organizations — were also essential grievances of the Green movement, as the opposition calls itself. He urged the creation of a united front against government malfeasance and injustice, and even linked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s foreign policy to workers’ circumstances. – New York Times

European talks with Chinese leaders over Iran have moved toward how to target sanctions rather than whether they should be applied at all, the European Union said on Friday. EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton said she told Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao sanctions were needed to keep pressure on Iran over its nuclear activities and that she felt China had accepted that position. "Premier Wen was clearly in process of saying we should have them (sanctions) but ... he wants them to be targeted," she said. Wen's stance appears in line with a statement by China's Foreign Ministry on Wednesday that China "does not oppose the twin track strategy" of dialogue and sanctions. That statement, which followed a meeting of the Chinese and French presidents, reiterated China still hoped dialogue would resolve the issue. French president Nicolas Sarkozy said after the meeting the time for sanctions was nearing. Recent overtures by Iran for talks did not mean sanctions should be abandoned, Ashton told reporters, adding she believed the two-track approach was needed to keep up pressure. - Reuters

An Iranian maritime patrol aircraft buzzed the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower at sea in the Middle East last week, passing within 1,000 yards of the ship, but American defense officials sought to downplay the encounter as relatively common. The Iranian navy Fokker F27 turboprop reconnaissance plane had been flying near the Eisenhower Strike Group for about 20 minutes before it made its low pass on April 21, according to a defense official who was not authorized to talk publicly about the incident and asked not to be identified. The official did not know if the Eisenhower took any defensive actions, such as changing course or ordering its fighters to escort the intruder away. No one was hurt and the Iranian aircraft soon retired. The Eisenhower and its escorts had been tracking the Fokker surveillance plane the entire time, the defense official said; it didn't try to pop up from low altitude or surprise them. – Defense News

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Iraq

Recounting all the ballots from the key Baghdad province will take about two to three weeks, Iraq's election commission said Thursday, further delaying the formation of a long-awaited new government. Since Iraq's landmark parliamentary elections on March 7, the country's political factions have been wrestling over the results of the close-fought contest. But little progress has been made toward forming a new government, prompting fears the political instability could open the way for renewed violence just as U.S. combat forces prepare to go home. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Shi'ite coalition narrowly lost by two seats to former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi's bloc. Mr. al-Maliki has challenged the results, alleging fraud and issuing a flurry of appeals for recounts. While rejecting appeals for a recount in other provinces, Iraq's judiciary approved one in Baghdad, a key province and home to nearly a quarter of the country's population. There are 68 seats in Baghdad up for grabs in the new 325-seat Parliament, and new vote tallies could easily erase Mr. Allawi's razor-thin lead. Mr. Allawi's supporters have cried foul over the recount and say Mr. al-Maliki is trying to subvert "the will of the people" with his various challenges to the results. – Associated Press

Fred and Kim Kagan write: Concerns over delays in the formation of a new Iraqi government and the prospects for meeting President Obama's announced timeline for withdrawal are clouding views of a more urgent matter: The United States might be about to lose an opportunity for success in Iraq by tolerating a highly sectarian, politicized move to overturn Iraq's election results. Washington must act swiftly to defend the integrity of the electoral process and support Iraqi leaders' tentative efforts to rein in the "de-Baathification" commission that threatens to undermine the entire democratic process…Thousands of Iraqis stand to be disenfranchised even though they cast their ballots correctly and those ballots were counted. Worse, this decision would set a precedent for the AJC to selectively exclude individuals until a government is formed. Washington should strongly support Iraqi leaders such as Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi and Allawi, who have strongly opposed the AJC's illegal effort to manipulate the results. The United States must encourage Iraq's Presidency Council to adhere to the electoral laws and reject the AJC's manipulation. The United States must also ensure that legal processes and court decisions about the elections are not unduly influenced by political or violent intimidation. Above all, the United States must oppose any effort to exclude votes properly cast and counted. U.S. officials must state clearly that Iraq's government should be formed by Iraqis in Iraq and encourage Iraqis to form a government that ensures real power-sharing and continued political accommodation -- rather than cobbling together a government without any genuine political settlement. – Washington Post

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Afghanistan/Pakistan

The Pakistani military, long reluctant to heed American urging that it attack Pakistani militant groups in their main base in North Waziristan, is coming around to the idea that it must do so, in its own interests. Western officials have long believed that North Waziristan is the single most important haven for militants with Al Qaeda and the Taliban fighting American and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan has nurtured militant groups in the area for years in order to exert influence beyond its borders. The developing shift in thinking — described in recent interviews with Western diplomats and Pakistani security officials — represents a significant change for Pakistan’s military, which has moved against Taliban militants who attack the Pakistani state, but largely left those fighting in Afghanistan alone. That distinction is becoming harder to maintain, Pakistani and Western officials say, as the area becomes an alphabet soup of dangerous militant groups that have joined forces to extend their reach deeper inside Pakistan. “This is a scary phenomenon,” one Western diplomat said. “All these groups are beginning to morph together.” – New York Times

China has agreed to build two new civilian nuclear reactors in Pakistan, according to Chinese companies and officials in Islamabad and Beijing, in a deal that could re-ignite the global debate about nuclear commerce and proliferation. The decision to supply reactors to Pakista , which has a nuclear arsenal and a record of dealing with North Korea, Iran and Libya, reflects China’s growing diplomatic confidence. It also reflects Beijing’s ambition to become a global supplier of nuclear energy and underscores its view of Pakistan as a prized south Asian strategic partner. The new deal with Pakistan, which has yet to be publicly announced, poses a dilemma for the US administration of President Barack Obama, which wants Chinese support for new sanctions on Iran but which does not want to weaken the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. Non-proliferation is one of Washington’s main foreign policy goals. China began building a nuclear reactor in Chashma in Pakistan's Punjab province in 1991 and work on a second rector began in 2005 and is expected to be completed next year. Under the new agreement, Chinese companies will build at least two new 650-MW reactors at Chashma. A Pakistani government official familiar with the discussions with China said on Wednesday: “Our Chinese brothers have once again lived up to our expectations. They have agreed to continue cooperating with us in the nuclear energy field.” - Financial Times

British and other foreign troops deployed in Afghanistan face a "very tough" time ahead and can expect to be engaged in a combat role for three or four more years, Nato's most senior civilian official in the country said today. Mark Sedwill, a former UK ambassador to Afghanistan, warned of further troop deaths in the region, saying: "We cannot allow judgment of success to be the absence of casualties." Speaking on the margins of a Royal United Services Institute conference in London, Sedwill laid out crucial steps towards ending the conflict, to be taken over the next few months…He said the "bumper sticker" message for the next British government had to be that "a stable Afghanistan is a safer world". The stability of Pakistan was also at stake, he said, as was that of other places vulnerable to al-Qaida-inspired extremists. The message to these countries had to be: "We stand by you." - Guardian

Reports on Thursday that [Hakimullah] Mehsud was only wounded in that U.S. drone attack have prompted questions about the quality of intelligence emerging from Pakistan, a key U.S. ally in the war against al Qaeda and the Taliban. Bruce Riedel, a CIA veteran currently with the Brookings Institution, described the latest reports as "a useful reminder that claims of the drones' successes need to be judged with caution." "Intelligence is not a science experiment," Mr. Riedel said. "It is a difficult task of resolving conflicting data over time." According to an Associated Press dispatch, four intelligence officers said Pakistan's main spy agency now thinks Mehsud is alive, citing electronic surveillance and reports from sources in the field, including from inside the Taliban. U.S. officials privately have expressed frustration with the level of cooperation from Pakistani officials in the fight against militant groups. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency helped create the Taliban in the 1990s. Despite pressure from the U.S. to sever links with the militants in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, U.S. officials and analysts say some elements in the Pakistani establishment remain sympathetic to terrorist groups such as the Afghan Taliban and Lashkar-e-Taiba. "Our close relationship with the Pakistanis is based on common interests, particularly our shared commitment to fight terror," said a U.S. official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue. "They have people dying almost every day, after all. But there are some groups that at least some parts of the Pakistani state see differently than we do." – Washington Times

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Russia/Ukraine

Chechnya’s president denied accusations by the Austrian government that he was involved in the shooting death of a Chechen whistle-blower in Vienna last year, saying Thursday that he was the victim of a smear campaign. Austria’s public prosecutor’s office announced Tuesday that a yearlong investigation had found that the whistle-blower, Umar S. Israilov, had been killed on a Vienna street in a botched kidnapping ordered by the Chechen president, Ramzan A. Kadyrov. But Mr. Kadyrov said that the killers, whoever they were, had carried out the murder in an effort to frame him. “Excuse me, but it would be so stupid and cruel to kill a person in the city center,” Mr. Kadyrov said Thursday at a news conference in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, a region in the Caucasus mountains of southern Russia. “Why would I need to do this?”… Mr. Israilov fled Russia for Europe in 2006 and filed a complaint with the European Court of Human Rights, accusing Mr. Kadyrov of participating in kidnappings, torture and murder as part of a Kremlin-backed strategy to quash a simmering separatist movement in Chechnya. In interviews with The Times before his death, Mr. Israilov said he was visited by a Chechen agent claiming to be working for Mr. Kadyrov, who threatened to kill him and his family if he did not withdraw his complaint from the European court. Austrian authorities have jailed three Chechen exiles suspected of involvement in the murder of Mr. Israilov, who was gunned down in January last year as he left a Vienna grocery store, carrying bags of Gummi bears and M&M’s for his three young children. – New York Times

Josh Rogin reports: The State Department's update of its annual list of official terrorist groups is imminent, but the group that just attacked Moscow won't be on the list. The Caucasus Emirate, which has been waging a jihad against the Russian government, is led by Doku Umarov, who calls himself the "emir of the North Caucasus." He was previously President of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, but dissolved that Republic and established the Emirate in its place in 2007 in order to impose sharia law in his territory. Umarov declared all the way back in 2007 that his group was expanding its struggle to wage war against the United States, Great Britain, and Israel. Last month, he released a video claiming credit for the suicide attacks in Moscow in March that resulted in the deaths of 39 people. But apparently, the State Department chose not to include Caucasus Emirate in the newest update to its list of foreign terrorist organizations, according to Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-FL, who is calling on the State Department to add the group for the sake of national security and U.S. -Russia relations. "This is a low profile organization that has continued to carry out high profile acts of terrorism, including the twin bombings in Moscow recently," Hastings told The Cable in an exclusive interview, "They've got a jihad against Russia and the United States. If that ain't a terrorist organization, I don't know what is." - The Cable

Friedburt Pfluger writes: The Ukrainian-Russian agreement suggests a de facto end to any prospects of NATO membership for Ukraine in the foreseeable future. While NATO and the European Union have hesitated about making any concrete moves toward Ukrainian accession, the Kremlin has known exactly what it wants. Perhaps, now that the deal with Russia has been signed and ratified, Mr. Yanukovich will still press ahead for a free-trade agreement and an “energy community” with the European Union. Ukraine could definitely use E.U. financing, especially loans from the European Investment Bank. But it is the Kremlin, at least for now, that decides whether and to what extent Ukraine will be allowed to integrate into European structures. The E.U., once again paralyzed by internal battles (now Greece), remains silent. – International Herald Tribune

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Europe

Spurred by a new treaty with Russia to reduce strategic nuclear missiles, the United States and NATO are seeking to revive a major treaty on conventional weapons in Europe, according to Anders Fogh Rasmussen, NATO’s secretary general. The effort will form one of three parts of a plan intended to revamp NATO’s relationship with Russia. The plan also includes inviting Russia to join the ballistic missile shield that the United States and NATO plan to deploy across Europe. And NATO is even looking at reducing some of its tactical nuclear weapons. “If we could make progress as far as conventional disarmament is concerned, it could also lead to disarmament or reduced reliance by the alliance on a nuclear deterrent and in general improve the relationship between NATO and Russia,” Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview at NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday. NATO hopes to reach a consensus on the plan in time for its November summit meeting in Lisbon. But Mr. Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister, said he had no illusions about the difficulties in reviving the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe, or C.F.E., from which Russia withdrew in December 2007. The issue was muddied by the Russia-Georgia war in August 2008, after which Russia recognized the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as states independent of Georgia. Nikolay Korchunov, Russia’s deputy ambassador to NATO, said Thursday that Russia was “interested in reinvigorating” the treaty. He added, however, that “it should be part of a bigger package that would include missile defense as well as nuclear disarmament.” – New York Times

Britain's armed forces face huge change if the Conservative Party wins next week's general election, with an "unsentimental" review set to prompt "tough decisions," the party's defense spokesman said on Thursday. With politicians under pressure to slash Britain's 163 billion pound ($248.5 billion) budget deficit but promising to protect spending on education or health, the armed forces are a prime candidate for cuts despite the war in Afghanistan. The center-right Conservative Party has consistently led opinion polls ahead of the May 6 ballot, and defense spokesman Liam Fox said the party would immediately initiate a six month strategic defense review (SDR) should it gain power…The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London has said the most optimistic scenario would mean the Ministry of Defense could face a cut in its budget of around 11 percent in real terms over the six years to 2016/17…Fox would not be drawn on where and how deeply the defense budget, which totals about 50 billion pounds in the 2010/11 fiscal year, may be cut, saying that defense spending would be ring-fenced for the Conservatives' first year in power. But he stressed that equipment procured in future would have to be adaptable, making it easier to export and help boost the sluggish economy, one of the key issues of an election dominated by a budget deficit running at more than 11 percent of GDP. - Reuters

Hungary's next prime minister Viktor Orban named two technocrats to join his inner circle on Thursday, in a move that an analyst said signaled he wanted an inclusive, moderate administration after his landslide victory. He picked Tibor Navracsics as his deputy to oversee the entire public administration system, an area which the new government will need to overhaul to make it more efficient and less costly to keep Hungary's budget on a sustainable path. Economist Mihaly Varga will be head of the new prime minister's office as state secretary. Orban, whose center-right Fidesz party won more than two thirds of the seats in parliament at elections this month, has to work quickly to convince investors and Hungarians alike that his government is ready to boost growth, cut debt and reform creaking state institutions. "I expect from the new government such work that is more holistic, more efficient and quicker," Orban told a news conference. "That necessitates that government work be co-ordinated differently than it has been." Navracsics, leader of Fidesz's parliamentary group, will coordinate the daily work of the new government as well as run a new Public Administration and Justice Ministry. "Our goal is to re-create the confidence which is one of the vital elements of any state," Navracsics said. "But this also requires that the state itself be worthy of confidence and respect. We need an efficient, small and disciplined state." - Reuters

Josh Rogin reports: Missile defense is as much of a diplomatic initiative as a military one. For the Poles, they see missile defense cooperation with the United States as a great way to build defense ties, bolster their credentials within NATO, and maybe even hedge against their traditional eastern foe, Russia. What Poland doesn't see is itself as a target of the missile threat from Iran, the country the nascent U.S. missile shield is supposedly designed to thwart. "If the mullahs have a target list we believe we are quite low on it," Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with Foreign Policy during his trip to Washington Thursday. The Obama administration came in and changed [his predecessor’s] plan, replacing the interceptors with a "phased adaptive approach" that will use smaller, more mobile systems to counter short and medium-range missiles. They advertised that as better suited to protect Europe. But Sikorski admitted that Poland's real interest in the system is to be an active player in the new emerging security infrastructure in Europe, which includes NATO's endorsement of missile defense. "Our part of Europe has so far very few NATO installations," he said. "This is the game that seems to be the next project, so we decided to get involved." – The Cable

Gen. Wesley Clark and Louise Arbour write: Bosnia and Herzegovina's future looks more uncertain than it has at any time since the end of the war in 1995. The nation's three main groups -- the Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats -- are all competing to determine the future of the Bosnian state. The country will hold general elections in October, and if that were not destabilizing enough, its various constituencies are all running in opposite directions: Serbs are threatening to call a referendum on the Dayton Agreement that stopped the war; Croats are calling for the creation of an autonomous entity within the broader state; and Bosnian Muslims are demanding a new constitution giving them more powers, to replace the existing, highly decentralized document. Forming a coalition government after the October polls will be very difficult, no matter who wins. On top of the political crisis, the country is in the midst of an economic and social meltdown… Until now, U.S. and EU attempts to help Bosnia and Herzegovina by pushing for constitutional changes to make the government more functional have come to naught; no one on the ground is ready to take difficult steps. What's needed are changes in the country's decision-making process such that legislation and reform can no longer be held captive by one ethnic group out of spite -- regardless of the best interests of Bosnian citizens as a whole. But Bosnian politicians today lack the common interests and shared values that would be necessary to improve upon what they agreed to in the Dayton Accords. Trying to change the current arrangement would be divisive and time-consuming. A closer link to NATO can help build up this common sense of purpose and calm things at home. – Foreign Policy

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South Asia

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's meeting with his Pakistan counterpart, Yousuf Raza Gilani, ended Thursday with pledges to improve relations but no substantive progress toward that goal. The 90-minute meeting, on the sidelines of a regional forum in Bhutan, was the first between the leaders of the two nuclear powers in nine months. New Delhi had suspended formal peace talks in November 2008 after Pakistan-based Islamist militants attacked Mumbai, India's financial capital, killing more than 160 people. India has made eradication of the terrorist threat stemming from Pakistan a prerequisite for resuming broad peace talks with Islamabad. Pakistan has arrested seven militants in connection with the Mumbai attacks. India wants to see those men prosecuted and other Islamist leaders arrested before it moves ahead with Pakistan's request for more wide-ranging talks, encompassing other areas such as a growing dispute over shared water resources. There was no change in India's position Thursday, despite professions from both sides of desire for better relations. Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao, speaking after the meeting, said India is open to discussing areas of "mutual concern"—as Pakistan wants—but that the "issue of terrorism is holding back progress" toward that goal. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said the prime ministers acknowledged a "trust deficit" in their relationship. The meeting, he said, was a "step in the right direction" toward restoring normal relations. – Wall Street Journal

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Koreas

Nicholas Eberstadt writes: As the U.S. and its allies frame plans for dealing with North Korea in the aftermath of the recent sinking of a South Korean warship, political leaders must recognize that security will depend not just upon deterring Kim Jong Il today. Northeast Asia's future security—and America's—will be profoundly affected by the government presiding over the northern half of Korea in the long run. For this reason, Korean unification—under a democratic, market-oriented Republic of Korea that remains allied with the U.S.—must be the ultimate objective. Today that looks like a daunting and risky prospect. But to paraphrase Churchill: Unification would be the worst possible outcome for Korea—except for all the other alternatives…Even under the best of circumstances, a full reintegration of the long-divided peninsula should be regarded as a painful, wrenching and (at least initially) tremendously expensive proposition. That much is plainly clear—and helps to explain why a growing fraction of the South Korean public is unwilling to think about reunification at all. But a successful Korean reunification, in conjunction with a robust alliance with the U.S. security alliance, affords a whole array of potential benefits that no alternative future for North Korea can possibly provide. Apart from the nontrivial question of human rights and living standards for the North Korean people, these include the promotion of regional and international security through a voluntary partnership with shared core principles and values. Furthermore, unification over the long haul can enhance security throughout Northeast Asia, generating dividends for this dynamic region and the world. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)

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Middle East

Arab states should offer more moral and financial support to Palestinians, reach out to Israelis and stop arming militants to foster Middle East peace, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Thursday. In her third speech on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in two months, Clinton stressed U.S. support for Israel after a period of acute U.S.-Israeli tension while laying out actions she expects of Israel, the Palestinians and Arab countries…"Arab states ... have an interest in a stable and secure region and they should take specific steps that show Israelis, Palestinians and their own people that peace is possible and that there will be tangible benefits if it is achieved," Clinton said in a speech to the American Jewish Committee. "We would hope to see such concrete steps like the opening or reopening of commercial trade offices and interest sections, overflight rights, postal routes, and more people-to-people exchanges that build trust at the grassroots level," she said. Clinton also urged Arab states to give Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas greater moral support to negotiate with Israel and more financial backing to help Prime Minister Salam Fayyad build functioning Palestinian institutions. - Reuters

Michael Freund writes: The lack of American will to confront the ayatollahs and stop them in their tracks has given various Arab leaders plenty of incentive, as well as a good excuse, to proceed down the nuclear trail. Indeed, it may already be too late to prevent this trend from spreading, as contracts are signed and checks cashed. But in any event, it is time that Washington realize the damage it is doing to its own interests, as well as to its allies, by allowing Iran to continue its mad dash to build nuclear weapons. If the Iranians aren’t stopped, and soon, we may wake up a few years from now to discover that Saudi Arabia and other unfriendly regimes have decided to upgrade their “civilian” nuclear programs into weapons-making industries. Like it or not, the only way to prevent this is to remove the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran. It should be clear to anyone who wishes to see: The sooner the tyrant of Teheran is stopped, the safer all of us will be. - Jerusalem Post

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Central Asia

Jeffrey Mankoff and Leland Miller write: First, the United States should support Central Asian energy projects, which diversify the region's export options, thereby reducing these countries' economic and political dependence on Russia. Second, the U.S. should take advantage of its greater physical distance from the region to act as an honest broker among the Central Asian states, whose mutual mistrust limits their cooperation. Working directly and through the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the U.S. should spearhead an initiative to resolve border disputes and reach an accord on water-sharing and cross-border investment within Central Asia. Third, the U.S. should work with the Central Asian governments to address key sources of radicalization, particularly the dearth of educational and economic opportunities that could be alleviated if Central Asia's economies are gradually opened, backed by a promise of eventual WTO membership. Closer intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation are a likely byproduct. Human rights reforms are not exactly welcomed by the region's KGB-trained elites, but Washington should leverage its influence to push for real progress. - Forbes

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Intelligence

The CIA's overseas expansion since Sept. 11, 2001, has mainly been evident on the operations side, with more case officers, more drone strikes and the distribution of a lot more cash. But the agency also has been sending abroad more employees from its less-flashy directorate, in what officials described as a major shift in how the agency trains and deploys its analysts. One U.S. intelligence official said "hundreds" of analysts are already in overseas assignments, a number that is expected to grow under a plan unveiled this week by CIA Director Leon Panetta. In a speech to the agency workforce, Panetta said there would be "more co-location of analysts and operators at home and abroad" over the next five years, and that the fusion of the two "has been key to victories in counterterrorism and counterproliferation." The deployments mark a significant change from the agency's practice of relying on a small army of analysts at CIA headquarters to make sense of the information gathered by case officers abroad…Despite the dangers, current and former CIA officials said using more analysts overseas has helped the agency overcome post-Sept. 11 problems. In particular, officials said that foreign assignments have been crucial to accelerating the training of analysts, giving them a deeper understanding of the countries and subjects they cover in a shorter amount of time. Having analysts work alongside case officers -- rather than half a world away -- has also sped up the tempo of operations against al-Qaeda and other adversaries. – Washington Post

Thomas Fingar and Mary Margaret Graham write: Creating the Office of the Director of National Intelligence was not a panacea. But it facilitated the implementation of measures that have markedly improved the intelligence products delivered to policymakers and others. Much has been achieved in the past five years, and our nation is safer as a result. Yet to ensure our future security, more must be accomplished, especially with regard to the sharing and integration of information across all departments and levels of government. The best way to achieve still-needed improvements is to stick with the DNI-led structure and build on what has been achieved. – Washington Post

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Defense

Defense Secretary Robert Gates is planning to take aim next week at the Navy’s new multibillion-dollar ballistic missile submarine, a move some view as an implicit threat: Cut the sub, or I’ll do it myself. Gates’s warning will come in a speech at the Navy League’s Sea-Air-Space Expo, and while he won’t announce any specific budget decisions, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell says Gates will raise questions about changes in geopolitics, global naval resourcing, the global economy and how those changes may impact what programs the Navy builds in the future. Any threat to cut the subs — which cost $7 billion apiece and would create plenty of jobs with defense contractors — is bound to stoke parochial tensions in Congress, especially with members who represent districts that build submarines. The new subs are planned to join the fleet starting in 2027, replacing existing Ohio-class missile subs.Such strong words coming from Gates, who has cut Air Force fighter jets and helicopters, an Army combat system, missile defense programs and has fired two service secretaries and an Air Force chief of staff, are viewed in the defense community with great caution. This particular future submarine program is valued by Navy leadership and closely watched by members of Congress who rally to defend the shipbuilding industrial base. - Politico

Seth Cropsey writes: Notwithstanding strategic consequences, the political will to maintain a trans-oceanic combat fleet is less than the political will to divide the defense budget evenly. The same must be said about the budget itself. If resources are unavailable to continue missions that the fleet executes today, or to provide support to use the current decades of relative geopolitical calm at sea to experiment with different platforms/weapons designs and ways of operating them, then it signals that the nation has moved on to priorities other than national defense. There is no inevitability here, save that which is self-generated… If the weights align as the C.N.A. paper describes, there will indeed be a tipping point. Besides relying on unforeseeable events to make the public case for reversing decline, the Navy’s strong argument will be that it cannot do its job if it has insufficient force distributed among a given number of combat vessels. But the bottom line is this: The threat that the “Tipping Point” paper envisions is internal. The issue is a question of will, not the caprice of a foreign ruler. At least for now. – Weekly Standard Blog

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China

China's notorious organized crime groups known as triads, which once thrived in collaboration with communist clandestine services, still operate large-scale criminal enterprises but are facing pressure from local authorities. Hong Kong police recently rounded up a network of triads by using an undercover operative who infiltrated one group in Kowloon, across from Hong Kong Island, a police spokesman said. Police arrested 33 men, ages 16 to 55, including a senior triad leader. They were charged with offenses ranging from membership in an organized crime group and assault to criminal damage and illegal drug possession..Triads have existed for hundreds of years in China, composed initially of rebels who opposed Manchu rule and eventually branching out in the mid-1700s into several groups, including the Three Harmonies Society, which used a triangle as its emblem…U.S. officials have said Chinese triads were linked to the trafficking of North Korean-made, high-quality counterfeit $100 bills, including an operation that led to arrests in Las Vegas last year. – Washington Times

Daniel Blumenthal writes: Taiwan's importance is the same as the importance of our Japanese, South Korean, and Philippine allies -- more geopolitical than geostrategic. These countries have embraced the international system that the United States created and defended after World War II. They are democratic states with free market economies that all want to be part of what used to be called the "West," the worldwide club of modern, advanced industrial democracies. Washington's interests are better served when economically vibrant democracies are free from the control of other great powers - this better ensures that the international system remains hospitable to us. In my opinion, for geopolitical as well as geostrategic reasons, the United States military should maintain a (more defendable) presence on the territory of as many U.S. Asian allies as welcome it, at least until all can be assured that China will be a responsible and democratic great power, uninterested in creating its own exclusive economic or military spheres. That means we need to work harder to help our allies build capabilities that help frustrate China's military plans rather than pulling back and relying mostly on offshore bases. – Shadow Government

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Thailand

Thailand's pro-establishment activists demanded military action against government foes and an end to "anarchy" in the capital Thursday, a day after clashes turned a busy expressway into a deadly battle zone. The re-emergence of the so-called Yellow Shirts - notorious for shutting Bangkok's airports for a week in 2008 - added to the volatility on the streets of the Thai capital, where a seven-week standoff has killed at least 27 people and wounded nearly 1,000. Chamlong Srimuang, one of the top Yellow Shirt leaders, has suggested that martial law be implemented - which would hand over most state functions to the military - and called on the army to stop the protesters on its own if the government would not, warning that otherwise civil war could ensue. The crisis also spilled into the diplomatic arena, with the foreign minister chastizing envoys here for interfering in Thailand's internal affairs. The Yellow Shirts draw their support from Thailand's business and bureaucratic elite, whose pervasive influence is deeply resented by the Red Shirts - supported by the rural and urban poor who make up the vast majority of the country's more than 60 million people. – Associated Press

Thai anti-government protesters were apologetic on Friday a day after a clumsy storming of a hospital that raised questions over whether the movement is losing direction in a two-month crisis that has killed 27 people. Protest leaders apologized after more than 200 "red shirts" forced their way into Chulalongkorn University Hospital late on Thursday to look for soldiers they accused of preparing an attack, forcing the evacuation of some patients. They didn't find any and left after roaming for an hour through the grounds, the lobby and car parks, some carrying wooden staves. Some wanted to return on Friday for another search but red shirt leaders ruled it out. "We truly apologize for any inconvenience caused. Some were very concerned the hospital was harboring troops," said Weng Tojirakarn, a protest leader. Weng acknowledged some red shirts have a "cowboy attitude" that presents an image problem for the movement, which is already struggling to get support from middle-class Bangkok. - Reuters

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