FPI Overnight Brief

FPI Overnight Brief

April 15, 2010
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Special Announcements

The evening of Tuesday, April 19, FPI and AEI's Critical Threats Project will address the spread of the al-Qaeda network to Yemen and Somalia. Though this event is specifically-focused towards young professionals, all are welcome to attend and invite their friends and colleagues. For more information, and to RSVP for this event, please visit FPI's Events page.

Videos, summaries, and transcripts of "Iran: Prospects for Regime Change are now available on FPI's website.

FPI is seeking interns for the summer. Applicants may submit their resumes online.
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Iran

The United States is pressing the U.N. Security Council to impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Iran, allow foreign states to seize Iranian ships suspected of carrying materials linked to its nuclear program, and curtail Tehran's ability to raise new investment in the country's energy sector, according to U.N.-based diplomats familiar with the confidential text of the proposed resolution. Susan E. Rice, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, outlined the U.S. proposal Wednesday in a meeting at the U.S. mission with the key players seeking to negotiate with Iran -- China, Russia, France, Britain and Germany. U.S. officials hope to adopt a sanctions resolution punishing Iran for its nuclear activities before the end of April, but some council officials said it was more likely it would pass in June. The text under negotiation has been written by the United States, with input from Washington's European partners. It has been crafted to targe t senior officers in Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and a network of Iranian companies and financial institutions the Guard controls. The United States believes these entities have been used to underwrite Tehran's military proxies throughout the Middle East and fund Iran's ballistic missile and nuclear enrichment programs. China objected strenuously to the U.S. proposal for sanctions on energy investments during a big-power meeting on the text last week in New York, and insisted that it would not accept any provisions that challenged its commercial interests in Iran, according to council diplomats. But Beijing has begun to engage in direct negotiations, offering some suggestions this week on how the United States should modify its text. The developments follow a high-level meeting in Washington on Monday between President Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao. After the meeting, U.S. officials said that Obama received a commitment from Hu to continue negotiations on a new sanctions resolution. But the Chinese have yet to agree to endorse any specific measures against Tehran. – Washington Post

Two of the nation’s top military officials said Wednesday that Iran could produce bomb-grade fuel for at least one nuclear weapon within a year, but would most likely need two to five years to manufacture a workable atomic bomb. The carefully worded testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee provided the most complete recent public assessment of how much time President Obama and his allies have to head off an Iranian nuclear weapons capability. But the witnesses’ back-and-forth with committee members also raised questions about how deeply the Iranian program had been infiltrated. It came only days after Mr. Obama, in an interview with The New York Times, and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates suggested that once Iranians had the capability to assemble a weapon, American intelligence might not be able to determine when they actually produced one. The time frame presented in the testimony of Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess Jr., the director of the Defense Intelligenc e Agency, and Gen. James E. Cartwright, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and one of the military’s most experienced officers on nuclear matters, was roughly in line with the finding of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate. That document, which is about to be updated, said that Iran would probably be able to produce a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015, while cautioning that there was no evidence that the Iranian government had decided to do so. – New York Times

The Obama administration signaled Wednesday that the United States would accept weakened United Nations sanctions against Iran as a way to quickly assemble a broad international coalition against Tehran's nuclear program. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said adoption of a new sanctions resolution by the U.N. Security Council is more vital than the actual measures taken. "What is important about the U.N. resolution is less the specific content of the resolution than the isolation of Iran by the rest of the world," Gates said. He said a Security Council resolution "provides a new legal platform" for individual nations or groups, such as the European Union, to take more stringent action. In that way, the U.N. resolution acts as a "launching pad" for economic strictures that are much tougher than those adopted by the world organization, he said. Gates' comments were the clearest sign yet that the administration, facing continuing resistance from other countries to the harshest of the proposed measures, is lowering its sights. – Los Angeles Times

Turkey's foreign minister said Wednesday that he did not support new U.N. sanctions against Iran, indicating there were still important holdouts as the Obama administration tries to win approval for a new resolution aimed at punishing the Islamic Republic over its nuclear activities. China, which holds a veto on the Security Council, as well as Brazil and Lebanon, two other members on the 15-member body, also have stressed the need for additional diplomacy. "We don't want to see sanctions. It will affect us. It will affect the region," Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told reporters. Davutoglu declined to say how his government would vote when a sanctions measure comes to the Security Council. But his remarks suggest the Obama administration will have difficulty meeting its goal of new sanctions by the end of April in order to demonstrate unified international opposition to Iran's program. Three previous sanctions resolutions on Iran had near-unanimous approval. – Washington Post

France sought to block extradition to the U.S. of an Iranian businessman U.S. authorities say helped Iran obtain materials it could use in its nuclear program. U.S. prosecutors allege Majid Kakavand ran a Malaysian company that circumvented U.S. and European sanctions by purchasing sensitive military and commercial products, and shipping them to Iran via Malaysia. Mr. Kakavand was arrested on a U.S. warrant in 2009 when he arrived in France for a vacation. The French court said it would rule by May 5. The French attempt to block extradition, coming a day after day after the U.S.-led nuclear summit wrapped up in Washington, shows how Iran tries to circumvent international agreements aimed at stopping it from acquiring nuclear technologies. The U.S. and other nations accuse Iran of pursuing nuclear weapons, while Iran says its program is for peaceful purposes. Justice Department prosecutors were in court Wednesday to argue in favor of the extradition when the French government's lawyers announced their opposition. U.S. prosecutors say Mr. Kakavand's Malaysian company, Evertop Services Sdn. Bhd., misled U.S. and European companies into selling components such as capacitors, sensors and measurement systems, which it re-exported to two Iranian military companies. The companies, Iran Electronics Industry and Iran Communication Industries, have been subject to U.S. sanctions since 2008 because of their alleged role in Iran's nuclear- and ballistic-missile programs. – Wall Street Journal

Iran is ignoring questions from the international community about its nuclear program, using "small phrases" to make "small suggestions," Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday. Medvedev said he does not support crippling sanctions that can hurt the people of Iran, "but if nothing happens, we will have to use sanctions." The Russian president made his remarks during a question-and-answer session after a wide-ranging and, at times, humorous speech at the Brookings Institution, a prestigious Washington think tank. The address came at the end of a two-day summit on nuclear security hosted by President Obama. Sanctions, Medvedev said, should be "smart" and "universal," aimed at one result, and should be discussed with the main countries that will take part in them. - CNN

As pressure mounts for new sanctions against Iran, experts say its alleged nuclear weapons programme is struggling to find scientists and technicians and faces sabotage by Western and Israeli agents. Despite already being the subject of economic sanctions and facing the threat of more concerted international action, Iran is pushing ahead with attempts to enrich large quantities of uranium to make nuclear fuel. Having said it plans to refine its three or four percent enriched uranium to the 20 percent level that could be used in a research reactor, Tehran is on the threshold of perfecting the 90 percent strength needed for a bomb. "It's going slower ... than they anticipated. But they are moving in that direction," US Defence Secretary Robert Gates said on Sunday in an interview with the NBC network. Once 90 percent enrichment is achieved, it will only remain for Iran to assemble a missile with separate stages, something intelligence agents think Iran has made considerable progress towards over the past three years. - AFP

Josh Rogin reports: Only one day after the close of President Obama's nuclear summit, Congress is demanding the administration refocus the nuclear discussion on Iran's nuclear program and is threatening to move sanctions legislation sooner rather than later. Congress has been sitting on two Iran sanctions bills for most of this year, having passed them through both chambers but not yet convening a conference session to resolve the two versions. Lawmakers have been giving the administration time to work the U.N. track, while also lamenting that the expected deadline for getting a new U.N. Security Council resolution on Iran keeps slipping. The pressure to take action may well increase after today's congressional testimony, in which Defense Intelligence Agency head Lt. Gen. Ronald L. Burgess, Jr. warned that Iran could have enough highly enriched uranium to build a nuclear bomb within a year. Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Gen. James Cartwright was quick to clarify that Iran wouldn't have the capability to actually construct that bomb until three to five years' time. Burgess also gave some details in his written remarks about Iran's capabilities that weren't previously well known in public. "DIA assesses that, with sufficient foreign assistance, Iran could develop and test an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of reaching the United States," he wrote. "Iran displayed its next-generation SLV, the Simorgh, in February 2010. The Simorgh is much larger than the Safir and shows progress in booster design that could be applicable to an ICBM design." - The Cable

The commentary panel of Fox News Channel’s Special Report w/Bret Baier discussed Iran at length during their online show, last night.
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Intelligence

Stephen R. Kappes, the veteran clandestine officer who came out of retirement in 2006 to lift morale in the Central Intelligence Agency’s troubled ranks, is stepping down as deputy director, the agency announced on Wednesday. Mr. Kappes, a stern former Marine who over his career served undercover in Moscow, Islamabad, Pakistan, and, in the 1980s, at a secret C.I.A. station in Germany collecting information about Iran, was the first officer from the clandestine service to become the agency’s second-ranking official since the early 1980s. Leon E. Panetta, the C.I.A. director, said that Michael Morell, who currently runs the agency’s analysis directorate, would take over for Mr. Kappes. Senior Democrats in Congress applauded Mr. Kappes on Wednesday, crediting him with soothing turmoil at the agency after the intelligence failures preceding the Iraq war and ensuing skirmishes between the agency and the Bush White House. – New York Times

President Obama personally intervened last fall to dissuade Steve Kappes — a senior CIA operations director at the time the agency used black sites and harsh interrogations of terrorists — from retiring…Mr. Kappes had been seeking to retire from the CIA as early as last year. Mr. Obama, according to former and current administration officials, personally called Mr. Kappes in November and urged him to stay in his post. "He talked to Kappes and asked him to stay," a former senior intelligence official said, adding that the president told Mr. Kappes: "You are a valuable player and we don't want to lose you." Thomas Vietor, a White House spokesman would not comment on the phone call. He did however say, "The president thinks Steve Kappes is a patriot and appreciates his service." Mr. Kappes was the subject of a critical profile this month in Washingtonian magazine that alleged he had helped coach a CIA officer to lie to investigators about the death of a detainee in an Afghan prison known as the "salt pit." A CIA spokesman said the magazine account was "shot through with errors and falsehoods." - Washington Times
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Iraq

Former prime minister Ayad Allawi, whose bloc won the largest number of seats in Iraq's March 7 parliamentary elections, warned Wednesday that the country could slide into a sectarian war if his group is shut out of the next government and said the United States should work more aggressively to prevent that from happening. Allawi, a secular Shiite who attracted the votes of millions of Sunnis and some Shiites, said in an interview in his Baghdad office that his Iraqiya bloc represents the change Iraqis crave after years of sectarian violence. But he accused Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, of using his power to alter the electoral outcome and preserve the status quo. If the United States and the United Nations do not step up during what is widely expected to be a months-long political vacuum, they will leave behind an unstable nation and region when they depart, he said. Despite his win, Allawi, who wants his old post back, may be left with nothing if Maliki's State of Law bloc joins forces in the next parliament with the Iraqi National Alliance, a mostly religious Shiite coalition. Allawi warned that a religious Shiite government would lead to renewed bloodshed. "I told them, 'Don't embark on this course,' " Allawi said, referring to a meeting with the Shiite alliance. "It's going to be very dangerous, it's going to be counterproductive, and the backlash will be severe. The whole foundation of whatever infant democracy we've built will be ruined." – Washington Post

Talks on an alliance between Iraq's two main Shi'ite Muslim blocs to form the next government appear to be nearing a conclusion, with the main sticking point being how to nominate a prime minister, officials said. A hotly contested but inconclusive general election on March 7 brought Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's State of Law coalition 89 seats, two behind the cross-sectarian Iraqiya coalition headed by former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi. The results must still be certified…Maliki's State of Law alliance has been in merger talks with the other main Shi'ite grouping, the Iran-friendly Iraqi National Alliance (INA), which gained 70 seats. Together, the two could have a working majority in the 325-seat parliament. "I think we are in the final stages of putting together the last touches before announcing this alliance," said Ali al-Adeeb, a close ally of Maliki. "I think within the next few days, we will announce this alliance." But the party of anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which accounts for about 40 of INA's seats, has made it clear it does not want Maliki reappointed. Maliki sent Iraqi troops backed by U.S. firepower to crush Sadr's paramilitary Mehdi Army in 2008. Sadrist opposition has dimmed Maliki's chances of a second term. - Reuters
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Afghanistan

The Pentagon has increased its use of the military's most elite special operations teams in Afghanistan, more than doubling the number of the highly trained teams assigned to hunt down Taliban leaders, according to senior officials. The secretive buildup reflects the view of the Obama administration and senior military leaders that the U.S. has only a limited amount of time to degrade the capabilities of the Taliban. U.S. forces are in the midst of an overall increase that will add 30,000 troops this year and plan to begin reducing the force in mid-2011. Operations aimed at Taliban leaders have intensified as the military also gears up for an expected offensive this summer in Kandahar, the southern Afghan city that is the Taliban's spiritual heartland. Afghan President Hamid Karzai wants to negotiate with the Taliban, and U.S. and allied forces are trying to lure rank-and-file fighters away from extremist leaders. By hunting Taliban leaders, the specialized units hope to increase pressure on foot soldiers to switch sides. With such an abbreviated timeline, the elite manhunt teams are the most effective weapon for disrupting the insurgent leadership, senior officials said. The officials contend that stepped-up operations by teams inserted in recent months already have eroded the Taliban leadership. Defense officials specifically single out the work of special operations forces in eliminating mid-level Taliban leaders before the February offensive in the Helmand province town of Marja. They say the forces have begun similar operations in nearby Kandahar province. "You can't kill your way out of these things, but you can remove a lot of the negative influences," said a senior Defense official. "A significant portion of the leadership has fled over the border, been captured or removed from the equation." – Los Angeles Times
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China

Unchecked proliferation by Chinese firms has undermined a global effort to keep nuclear and missile technology out of the hands of terrorists. The transfer of such technology to countries such as Pakistan and Iran, which are considered vulnerable to an attack by terrorists or rogue insiders, is the cause of much anxiety in the international community…Richard Fisher, a senior fellow of Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, said the very fact that Mr. Obama can point to the threat of nuclear terrorism is in no small part attributable to China's proliferation of nuclear and missile technology since the 1970s. However, "the Obama administration is making no connection between the threat of nuclear terrorism and China's role in making it possible," he said. A report by the CIA's Weapons Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Center (WINPAC) this year linked Chinese companies to nuclear and missile programs in Pakistan and missile programs in Iran. It said China was a primary supplier of advanced conventional weapons to Pakistan, which it described as China's most important partner in military technology cooperation. – Washington Times

A company in Australia came under a cyberattack from China that was intense enough to slow traffic on part of the country's second-largest broadband network, company officials said Thursday. Among companies affected were Australian Associated Press, the national news agency, and the Australian branch of Rupert Murdoch's News Ltd., but they were not the targets, said the telecommunications company Optus. Attackers in China flooded an international network link to one of Optus' large commercial clients in Australia in what is known as a denial-of-service attack, the company said. This caused congestion that significantly slowed Internet and e-mail links to other customers on that link, including AAP and News. Optus declined to identify the company targeted, citing commercial confidentiality. News Ltd.'s The Australian newspaper reported that it was a multinational financial institution, but had no further details. Optus also declined to say how many customers were affected. The attack was blocked after about 2 1/2 hours. – Associated Press

The death toll from the powerful earthquake that struck western China Wednesday rose to at least 617 people on Thursday, with 10,000 more injured as many remained buried under debris, Chinese state media reported. The quake, which struck at 7:49 a.m. in Qinghai Province, bordering Tibet, had a magnitude of 7.1, according to China’s earthquake agency. At least 18 aftershocks measuring more than 6.0 followed throughout the day, government officials said, according to Xinhua. China’s earthquake agency said the quake centered on Yushu County, a remote and mountainous area sparsely populated by farmers and herdsmen, most of them ethnic Tibetans. The region, pocked with copper, tin and coal mines, is also rich in natural gas. As with the devastating earthquake two years ago that killed 87,000 in neighboring Sichuan Province, many buildings collapsed, including schools. But with Qinghai’s far smaller and less dense population, the toll is likely to remai n far lower. A seismologist, Gu Guohua, said in an interview with the national broadcaster CCTV that 90 percent of the homes in the county seat, Jeigu, had collapsed. The houses, he said, were of “quite poor quality,” with many constructed of wood, mud and brick. – New York Times

China's manned space program aims to leapfrog the U.S. by deploying advanced spacecraft and in-orbit refueling systems as early as 2016, when American astronauts still may be relying on rides on Russian spaceships. Wang Wenbao, the head of China's manned space engineering office, disclosed the new details about Beijing's growing exploration ambitions in an interview Wednesday. In less than 20 years, China has come from having no space program to one that seeks to move into the lead by relying on an extensive web of universities, government research offices and manufacturing facilities. With unwavering government support and more than 100 facilities contributing to manned exploration projects, Beijing appears committed to independent missions in deep space, perhaps as soon as the end of this decade. China is putting the pieces in place to be able to assemble large spacecraft in orbit, which is the only way to have manned vehicles penetrate deeper into the solar system. Th e American space shuttle fleet is to retire in a few months, and—even under the most optimistic projections—the National Aeronautics and Space Administration over the next several years will have to rely on Russia to get its crews to the international space station. NASA officials already have said it would take them until at least 2015 to decide on the design of a U.S. heavy-lift rocket. The Obama administration has indicated its desire for expanded international cooperation in manned exploration. NASA head Charles Bolden has said: "We won't be able to go to Mars, we won't be able to go back to the moon, unless we partner with other countries." In his first interview ever with Western reporters, Mr. Wang said that before 2016 Chinese astronauts are expected to be practicing docking maneuvers between orbiting spacecraft and cargo vehicles. That would be a prelude to "long-term operation of a space station," he said. Once that occurs, crews are expected to stay aboard for "about half a year," he said. – Wall Street Journal (subscription required)
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Middle East

Complaints of torture and maltreatment among prisoners who have been detained without trial are increasing in Jordan, the country's National Centre for Human Rights warned yesterday, as it called on the government to take immediate measures to address the situation. It also said that the number of people being detained without trial by governors had risen. In its annual report for 2009, released yesterday, the National Centre for Human Rights (NCHR), an official institution, but one that maintains full financial and administrative independence, said it had received 51 complaints of torture and maltreatment in detention facilities compared with 41 in 2008. “The report does not refer to torture as a phenomenon, but there are increased complaints that indicate that torture may be on the rise,” Mohieddin Touk, the NCHR’s commissioner, said in a press conference to mark the launch of the report... Jordan is a signatory to the United Nations Convention Against Torture, which requires countries to take effective measures to prevent torture. Although Jordan amended article 208 of the penal code that made torture a crime three years ago, Mr Touk said the amendment was not enough to curb torture and maltreatment. “Nobody has been tried to date in accordance with the amended article,” he said. The report also showed that cases of detentions without trial – on the orders of governors – had increased by 15 per cent. Since 1954, Jordanian laws have allowed governors to detain persons who they deem “a danger to the people.” – The National

Analysis: When Mr. Obama declared that resolving the long-running Middle East dispute was a “vital national security interest of the United States,” he was highlighting a change that has resulted from a lengthy debate among his top officials over how best to balance support for Israel against other American interests. This shift, described by administration officials who did not want to be quoted by name when discussing internal discussions, is driving the White House’s urgency to help broker a Middle East peace deal. It increases the likelihood that Mr. Obama, frustrated by the inability of the Israelis and the Palestinians to come to terms, will offer his own proposed parameters for an eventual Palestinian state. Mr. Obama said conflicts like the one in the Middle East ended up “costing us significantly in terms of both blood and treasure” — drawing an explicit link between the Israeli-Palestinian strife and the safety of American soldiers as they battle Islamic extremism and terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere. – New York Times

Andrew Tabler writes: Although the risks of a Syrian counterstrike are great, some Israeli officials might see an advantage in striking at both Syria's and Lebanon's military hardware. Analysts say most decisions to go to war would be based on Israel's strategic calculations in the north. But there are regionwide calculations over Iran as well. If Israel destroys Hezbollah's weapons, it could provide a window of time in which Israeli cities are under a decreased threat of missile attack. This would give Israel a perfect opportunity to strike Iran without risking an immediate retaliation from Tehran's allies to its north. This scenario would not be cost-free for Israel, but given its overriding concern over Iran's possession of a nuclear weapon, Israeli leaders might judge it to be an acceptable level of risk. Given that an Israeli strike on Iran still seems out of the question for the time being, however, this may be one of the reasons why cooler heads have prevailed so far. At the center of this unenviable situation sits ambassador-designate Robert Ford. The surprising escalation on the part of the Syrian regime represents yet another challenge to Obama's policy of engagement -- not to mention regional peace. Quiet diplomacy has so far managed to prevent the situation from disintegrating into an all-out war. However, if Israel locates the Scuds in Lebanon, this deceptive calm might not last for long. – Foreign Policy
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Kyrgyzstan

The Obama administration signaled its support for the new leadership of Kyrgyzstan on Wednesday, sending a senior diplomat here to meet with the head of the country’s interim government. The diplomatic gesture left the deposed president, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, ever more isolated in a mountain village in the south, where he fled after an uprising last week and is now trying to arrange a safe exit for his family and relatives, as well as himself. The American diplomat, Robert Blake, the assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, met Wednesday with the new Kyrgyz leader, Roza Otunbayeva. He said he came to “express support for the steps the provisional government has taken to restore democracy,” and to offer American aid. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton spoke on the phone last week with Ms. Otunbayeva, but Mr. Blake was the most senior United States official to visit Bishkek since the uprising. “We look forward to helping,” he said after meeting with Ms. Otunbayeva, who said the two had discussed economic aid but did not specify how much. Later, Mr. Blake paid respects to a makeshift memorial on the central square, where 84 protesters were killed by gunfire while storming the presidential building a week ago. While some members of the interim government have expressed resentment toward Washington for its support of Mr. Bakiyev, Ms. Otunbayeva said Tuesday that the lease on a critical American air base, a logistics hub for the war in Afghanistan, would be “automatically” extended beyond its expiration in July. – New York Times
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Russia

Josh Rogin reports: One year after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton traveled to Moscow to present the "reset" button to her Russian counterpart Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Under Secretary of State William J. Burns expressed some discomfort with how the publicity stunt has colored U.S.-Russia-relations ever since. "The concept of ‘reset' carried with it the misleading notion that the slate could be wiped clean with the push of a button, starting anew unburdened by the past. Reality, of course, is a little more complicated," Burns told an audience at the Center for American Progress Wednesday. "But for the first time in a long time, the possibilities before us outnumber the problems." Burns, who was U.S. ambassador to Moscow from 2005 until 2008, has traveled there several times in his new role, mainly as part of his efforts to broker a fourth U.N. Security Council resolution sanctioning Iran over its nuclear program…Listing a number of areas where the United States and Russia have managed to work together over the past year, notably in agreeing to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons, Burns identified economic cooperation as "one of the most underdeveloped areas of our relationship." – The Cable
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Defense

The Army intelligence officer nominated to lead the Pentagon’s new command devoted to warfare in cyberspace has warned Congress that policy directives and legal controls over digital combat are outdated and have failed to keep pace with the military’s technical capabilities. The officer, Lt. Gen. Keith B. Alexander, wrote to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that computer network warfare was evolving so rapidly that there was a “mismatch between our technical capabilities to conduct operations and the governing laws and policies.” As he prepared for a confirmation hearing on Thursday as the first head of the Cyber Command, he pledged that the White House and Pentagon were “working hard to resolve the mismatch.” In a 32-page response to questions from senators, General Alexander sketched out the broad battlefield envisioned for the computer warfare command and acknowledged the kind of targets that his new headquarters could be ordered to attack. The target list included traditional battlefield prizes — command-and-control systems at military headquarters, air defense networks and weapons systems that require computers to operate. But he agreed with a question submitted by the Senate that asked whether the target list would include civilian institutions and municipal infrastructure that are essential to state sovereignty and stability, including power grids, banks and financial networks, transportation and telecommunications. General Alexander promised that the Cyber Command would be sensitive to the ripple effects from this kind of warfare, and would honor the laws of war that govern traditional combat in seeking to limit the impact on civilians. – New York Times

The Pentagon's new National Security Space Strategy will propose international rules of the road for orbital space, an increasingly crowded and contested domain, U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary William Lynn said today. "We can no longer take access for granted," Lynn said during an April 14 speech at the National Space Symposium here. "Since the environment has changed, our approach must change as well." Slated for released this summer, the strategy will have three pillars, Lynn said: Norms of behavior, which include "shared rules of the road in space to provide predictability in the congested environment space has become." Shared dependence of space systems. For example, many nations rely on the U.S. Global Positioning System, which reduces the threat since an attack on GPS would hurt many countries. And, defenses for satellites, including "protective tactics" for satellites, building back-up capabilities for them and continuing to develop the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) program that allows for the rapid design and launch of satellites. – Defense News

Colin Clark reports: Testing documents obtained by DoD Buzz, said by congressional sources to be the most recent available, raise serious questions about the effects of heat and noise from the F-35B on pilots and ships’ crews, on ship decks and on critical flight equipment. For example, an operational assessment of the JSF says that heat from the STOVL version may result in “severe F-35 operating restrictions and or costly facility upgrades, repairs or both.” The OT-IID report says “thermal management” will “increase the number of sorties required to prepare an operational unit for deployment during summer months” at most American bases. Overall, it rates basing as red: “unlikely to meet criteria — significant shortfall.” Another document, a briefing chart rating the plane’s systems, rates as “red” flight operations noise “below deck and island structure” and “on the flight.” Direct exhaust “deck personnel burns” are rated red, as is “personnel blow down” and “off-gassing.” On top of that, the non-skid coating is rated red, as is the impact of the plane’s power systems on “spotting” and the plane’s outwash “on spotting of adjacent aircraft.” – DoD Buzz
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Obama Administration/Ideas

The Obama administration is shifting the focus of U.S. public diplomacy efforts to play down the past emphasis on countering violent extremism in order to avoid offending foreign audiences opposed to terrorism. Judith A. McHale, undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, said in an interview with The Washington Times that "a very narrow segment" of the world's population is at risk of turning to extremism, and the policies adopted by the Bush administration should be broadened. "Looking back, there was such a focus on countering violent extremism that everything got swept into the same category or the same bucket," Ms. McHale said. "So if you were teaching English in many countries around the world, it was described as part of our [counter-extremism] effort, whether or not the individuals you were teaching were ever at risk of becoming violent extremists." Ms. McHale also said "we can't take our eye off the ball on violen t extremist elements [because] they are very real and dangerous enemies to us." But "you risk offending people by creating the impression that we think they are going to go that way, when in fact they don't," she said. – Washington Times

FPI Director Robert Kagan says: I will leave it to the self-described realists to explain in greater detail the origins and meaning of "realism" and "realpolitik" to our confused journalists and politicos. But here is what realism is not: It is not a plan to rid the world of nuclear weapons through common agreement by all the world's powers. And it is not a foreign policy built on the premise that if only the United States reduces its nuclear arsenal, this will somehow persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear program, or persuade China and other reluctant nations in the world to redouble their pressure on Iran to do so. That is idealism of a high order. It is a 21st-century Wilsonian vision. And it is precisely the kind of idealism that realists in the middle of the 20th century rose up to challenge. Realists would point out that the divergent interests of the great powers, not to mention those of Iran, will not be affected in the slightest by marginal cuts in American and Russian nuclear forces. The confusion no doubt stems from the fact that President Obama is attempting to work with autocratic governments to achieve his ends. But that does not make him Henry Kissinger. When Kissinger pursued diplomacy with China, it was to gain strategic leverage over the Soviet Union. When he sought détente with the Soviets, it was to gain breathing space for the United States after Vietnam. Right or wrong, that was "realpolitik." Global nuclear disarmament may or may not be a worthy goal, but it is nothing if not idealistic. – Foreign Policy

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