FPI Overnight Brief

Iran

Long denied access to foreign technology because of sanctions, Iran has nevertheless learned how to make virtually every bolt and switch in a nuclear weapon, according to assessments by U.N. nuclear officials in internal documents, as well as Western and Middle Eastern intelligence analysts and weapons experts. Iran's growing technical prowess has been highlighted by a secret memo, leaked to a British newspaper over the weekend, that purportedly shows Iranian scientists conducting tests on a neutron initiator, one of the final technical hurdles in making a nuclear warhead, weapons analysts said Monday… The accumulating evidence of Iran's nuclear momentum emerges as Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton conceded Monday that the White House has little to show for nearly a year of diplomatic engagement with Iran over its nuclear ambitions. "I don't think anyone can doubt that our outreach has produced very little in terms of any kind of a positive response from the Iranians," Clinton told reporters. – Washington Post

Flashback to December 2007: A new assessment by American intelligence agencies concludes that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and that the program remains frozen… Rather than painting Iran as a rogue, irrational nation determined to join the club of nations with the bomb, the estimate states Iran’s “decisions are guided by a cost-benefit approach rather than a rush to a weapon irrespective of the political, economic and military costs.” – New York Times

Danielle Pletka writes: Iran is proceeding with an aggressive nuclear weapons program, and a few dogged holdouts notwithstanding, much of the Obama administration has come to terms with that reality. Official Washington has resigned itself to pursuing a containment policy that some argue will limit Iran's ability to proliferate, terrorize and otherwise exploit being a nuclear power. But it is wrong to think a nuclear Iran can be contained. The containment argument runs along Cold War lines: The price of breakout is too high; the regime cares only about power, not about using weapons; containment will be simple because the Arabs are so scared of Iran they'll do anything to help us; President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad doesn't have his finger on the button. In fact, these arguments are either false or misleading. – Washington Post

Afghanistan/Pakistan

The full complement of American forces deploying to Afghanistan under President Obama’s new strategy will not arrive until November, a top commander here said. The new, more gradual timeline means it will take longer for Mr. Obama’s surge of forces to arrive, thus potentially blunting their impact in the surge’s initial phases and leading to a slower drawdown of forces after July 2011. It comes as the military confronts the realities of deploying such a large force into a landlocked country with little in the way of infrastructure. – Christian Science Monitor

Gordon Brown today set out an ambitious plan for a 68-nation conference in London next month on the future of Afghanistan, including plans for two senior co-ordinators to organise the civilian reconstruction of the country, one representing the UN and the other Nato. The co-ordinators will replace the UN envoy to Afghanistan, Kai Eide… It is expected Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, and the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, will attend the conference, but the US will send secretary of state Hillary Clinton… Brown said he also expected the conference to agree criteria for the transfer of provinces to Afghanistan starting next year, adding that a police training college in Helmand would train in the region of 2,000 officers a week. – The Guardian

Demands by the United States for Pakistan to crack down on the strongest Taliban warrior in Afghanistan, Siraj Haqqani, whose fighters pose the biggest threat to American forces, have been rebuffed by the Pakistani military, according to Pakistani military officials and diplomats. The Obama administration wants Pakistan to turn on Mr. Haqqani, a longtime asset of Pakistan’s spy agency who uses the tribal area of North Waziristan as his sanctuary. But, the officials said, Pakistan views the entreaties as contrary to its interests in Afghanistan beyond the timetable of President Obama’s surge, which envisions reducing American forces beginning in mid-2011. The demands, first made by senior American officials before President Obama’s Afghanistan speech and repeated many times since, were renewed in a written message delivered in recent days by the United States Embassy to the head of the Pakistani military, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, according to American officials. Gen. David H. Petraeus followed up on Monday during a visit to Islamabad. – New York Times

Sudan

At least 2,000 people have died and 250,000 have fled their homes after violence in southern Sudan this year, worsening a humanitarian crisis in a region seeking its independence, officials from a medical aid group said Monday. Officials from Doctor Without Borders said this year's violence is the worst since the signing of a 2005 peace deal between south Sudan and the north, an agreement that ended two decades of civil war. – Washington Post

Japan

The Japanese government has decided to postpone a decision on relocating a controversial U.S. military base in Okinawa until next year, a move that will deepen the rift between Tokyo and Washington in their bilateral security ties. The government of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama on Tuesday formally gave up the plan to reach a settlement on the future of Marine Corps Air Station Futenma before year-end and decided to request the U.S. to hold a new round of bilateral talks. U.S. officials have grown increasingly frustrated with Tokyo over the slow progress on the issue of the Okinawa base in recent weeks. The U.S. says the current agreement is the only option for relocating Futenma facilities, part of a broader plan to realign U.S. bases stationed in Japan. – Wall Street Journal

Human Rights

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has been criticized as being too soft on human rights issues, said the "pragmatic" Obama administration approach is designed to make a difference, not prove a point. And she said that human rights talks with China and Russia may be best conducted "behind closed doors." "Principled pragmatism informs our approach on human rights with key countries like China and Russia," Clinton said Monday at Georgetown University in a speech used to spell out the Obama administration's broad goals on human rights. "Cooperation with each is critical to the health of the global economy and the non-proliferation agenda, to managing security issues like North Korea and Iran, and to addressing world problems like climate change."… On concerns about the Iranian nuclear program, Clinton said stopping the spread of nuclear weapons is a human-rights issue. – CNN

Yelena Bonner, the widow of Soviet-era rights defender Andrei Sakharov and an outspoken rights campaigner in her own right, has lamented what she says is a decline in the invocation of her late husband's name and ideals… She said too many people have forgotten the ideals he espoused and activities he undertook under Soviet repression. Today's conference was organized at the Foreign Literature Library to mark the 20th anniversary of Sakharov's death. In his address to conference participants, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said Sakharov's ideas are similar to the goals and tasks facing current Russian society. – Radio Free Europe

North Korea

Thailand's seizure of a plane packed with North Korean arms signals a possible escalation of international pressure on North Korean activities overseas aimed at threatening the financial health of its regime. Thai authorities said late Monday they were trying to determine where the aircraft -- carrying surface-to-air missile parts and other arms -- was headed when it was detained after stopping to refuel in Bangkok on Friday. Many of the more than 140 boxes in the cargo bay hadn't been opened yet, a Thai official said… Intelligence experts said the use of a transport plane rather than a ship, and the decision to land in Thailand -- a country known to cooperate heavily with U.S. intelligence services -- indicates this may have been an unusual or hastily planned delivery. – Wall Street Journal

Great Britain

Tony Blair would still have led the country to war in Iraq even if he had known that it had no weapons of mass destruction. The former Prime Minister has confessed that he would have had to use different arguments to justify toppling Saddam Hussein. But he says in an interview… that he would still have taken steps to remove the Iraqi dictator from power. He also put the decision to go to war in Iraq in the context of a wider battle over Islam. He said: “I happen to think that there is a major struggle going on all over the world, really, which is about Islam and what is happening within Islam.” He said that this struggle had a “long way to go”. – Times of London

Islamism

Tens of thousands of Palestinians have turned out in the Gaza Strip to celebrate the 22nd anniversary of the founding of the Islamist group Hamas. Hamas leader Ismail Haniya said the organisation would not recognise Israel and would not stop fighting. Supporters filled the streets, waving banners and portraits of assassinated Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. The event comes almost year after a deadly three-week conflict between Israel and Hamas. – BBC

Somali rebels have executed two men for adultery and murder, but the verdict prompted a battle between two insurgent factions that killed three of the gunmen, witnesses said on Monday. It was the first time Hizbul Islam guerrillas had meted out the type of punishments that are usually associated with the more hardline al Shabaab rebel group, which the United States says is al Qaeda's proxy in the failed Horn of Africa state. President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed's Western-backed government controls just a few strategic sites in Mogadishu. Western security experts say the country has become a safe haven for militants, including foreign jihadists, who are using it to plot attacks across the impoverished region and beyond. – New York Times

China

A ban on registering certain domain names is part of a Chinese effort to tighten Internet controls, according to Chinese Internet experts. Registration of domains with the suffix “.cn” was banned Monday, according to the China Internet Network Information Center (CNNIC), which serves as the cyber management branch of the Chinese government. – Radio Free Asia

Copenhagen

Global warming talks were suspended for hours Monday because of a walkout by developing countries, as rich and poor nations struggled to reconcile the divisions that have dominated international climate policy for decades. G-77, brought the U.N.-sponsored talks to a halt here as they accused the United States and other industrialized countries of forsaking the Kyoto Protocol, the climate agreement that currently imposes emission limits on nearly all of the world's developed nations. – Washington Post

China and the United States were at an impasse on Monday at the United Nations climate change conference here over how compliance with any treaty could be monitored and verified. China, which last month for the first time publicly announced a target for reducing the rate of growth of its greenhouse gas emissions, is refusing to accept any kind of international monitoring of its emissions levels, according to negotiators and observers here. The United States is insisting that without stringent verification of China’s actions, it cannot support any deal. – New York Times
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Events

What is at Stake for the U.S. in Afghanistan?
The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at SAIS, Johns Hopkins University
December 15

The War in Afghanistan: A Special Address by John McCain
Heritage Foundation
December 15
Implementing the Lisbon Treaty: An Update on Europe's Transformation
Heinrich Böll Foundation North America
December 16
18 Months and Beyond: Implications of U.S. Policy in Afghanistan
Middle East Policy Council
January 7

Overnight Brief is a daily product of the Foreign Policy Initiative, which seeks to promote an active U.S. foreign policy committed to robust support for democratic allies, human rights, a strong American military equipped to meet the challenges of the 21st century, and strengthening America's global economic competitiveness. To submit comments or suggestions, email overnight@foreignpolicyi.org.

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