China Develops Nuclear Capability

China Develops Nuclear Capability

Christian Le Mière, Editor of Jane’s Intelligence Review

LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM (21st May 2009) – Jane’s Intelligence Review reveals that recent DigitalGlobe imagery acquired by IHS Jane's supports analysis that China is developing and expanding its nuclear warhead and strategic missile arsenals.

Beijing is now deploying or developing up to five intercontinental nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in what amounts to China's most ambitious increase in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capability since the late 1980s.

Missile Defence Potential

Christian Le Mière explained, “Estimates gathered by Jane’s Intelligence Review show that within 10 years China may have a much larger total missile force, although not as large as Russia or the US, and it will utilise a range of modern technologies to ensure the effective retaliatory purpose of China's long-range nuclear missile forces.”

“This expansion of nuclear warheads stands in contrast to the current nuclear reduction talks being pursued by the US and Russia, but Beijing is unlikely to enter into any such negotiations. For China, its nuclear forces remain small enough to justify the continued rejection of appeals to join nuclear arms reduction talks that it considers binding and verifiable on nuclear missile reduction pacts. China's consistent opening position on issues of nuclear disarmament has been that it is up to the established nuclear powers to first eliminate their nuclear weapons.”

This is unlikely to affect the current round of US-Russia nuclear reduction talks. However, with one of Russia's neighbours expanding its nuclear arsenal and Beijing looking to develop an anti-ballistic missile system by 2025 the People's Liberation Army’s (PLA) strategic missile forces could hinder longer-term attempts to reduce nuclear stockpiles.

Concurrent with the modernisation process of its land-based missiles, the PLA will also soon deploy its new submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) to offer greater flexibility and survivability to China's nuclear forces.

This effort is expected to result in a relatively modest increase in missile numbers, but armed with far more capable, if not a larger number of warheads.

Satellite Analysis of Taiyuan Space Launch Centre

To view image: http://press.ihs.com/images/10006//Images%20China.jpg

Recent DigitalGlobe imagery acquired by IHS Jane's shows the growth of China's Taiyuan Space Launch Centre (TSLC) since 2006. The centre's development appears to be a key factor in China's long-range ballistic missile force modernisation.

From 1999 to 2004, Taiyuan was the location for test flights of the KT-1, a four-stage mobile space-launch vehicle. However, this centre also supports the testing of new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and SLBMs. Since at least 1997, TSLC has been associated with testing for the DF-31 ICBM.

DigitalGlobe satellite imagery from 2008 and 2009 shows that a new liquid-fuelled rocket launch facility has been constructed at the site since 2006 (link A).

An earlier image dating from September 2006 (link B) shows the launch pad under construction, with no control/viewing centre, power plant, rail terminus or assembly stations.

In addition to the new liquid-fuelled rocket launch pad, TSLC also hosts a solid-fuelled rocket launch A test stand and teardrop-shaped access routes indicate this site facilitates rocket assembly and launch.

These solid-fuelled rocket launch facilities contain assembly buildings similar to those used at a known PLA Second Artillery rocket force launching facility for DF-31 ICBMs at Base 54 in Luoyang, Henan province.

In addition, Taiyuan contains an elaborate driving range that would be consistent with testing the truck-based transporter-erector-launchers for China's recent mobile missiles. The range could also be used for training drivers.

IHS Jane’s is an IHS (NYSE: IHS) company.

ENDS

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