By Gary Thomas
Washington
Analysts: New Intelligence May Spark Change in US, Iran Policies
For months, Bush administration officials have said Iran was actively pursuing a nuclear weapons program and called on
collective international action, including sanctions, to force Tehran to stop. But a new U.S. intelligence report says
Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, and that as of mid-2007, at least, had not restarted it. The public
release of the estimate may alter perceptions and policies in both Washington and Tehran.
At some points, the rhetoric coming from Washington and Tehran was so harsh that it fueled speculation that the United
States was planning to attack Iran.
But a new U.S. intelligence estimate on Iran's nuclear program stands in sharp contrast to earlier pronouncements by
Bush administration officials that Iran is in active pursuit of nuclear weapons. The National Intelligence Estimate,
which represents the collective judgment of the 16 U.S. agencies that deal in intelligence, says that Iran may not be as
determined to develop nuclear weapons as the U.S. previously believed.
President Bush insists that the new intelligence report represents no change in U.S. policy or attitude towards Iran. If
anything, he says, it should reinvigorate joint international efforts to keep nuclear arms knowledge out of Iran's
hands.
"Our policy remains the same," said President Bush. "I see a danger. And many in the world see the same danger. This
report is not an 'OK, everybody needs to relax and quit' report. This is a report that says what has happened in the
past could be repeated and that the policies used to cause the regime to halt are effective policies, and let's keep
them up. Let's continue to work together."
Vali Nasr, a senior fellow on Middle East Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, says the new National
Intelligence Estimate undercuts U.S. efforts to get support for more sanctions against Iran.
"The mistake of the Bush administration was that it overreached," said Nasr. "In overstating Iran's capability, in
overstating Iran's threat, it created a house of cards that has all of a sudden fallen down."
But Larry Wilkerson, who was former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell's chief of staff, says that Washington may be
sending a signal to Tehran by the release of the report.
"We're releasing this National Intelligence Estimate which more or less reverses our previous appraisal of you as a
monolithic entity that is absolutely impossible to talk to," he said. "We're actually saying it might be somewhat to our
advantage to talk to you. We're actually saying you might be persuadable if we talk to you in the right way. If my
optimistic side is interpreting it correctly, it's an incredibly sophisticated effort to lay down a carpet, so to speak,
to eventual diplomacy and negotiations with Iran."
The report has upset some conservative American politicians and commentators who favor keeping up a hard line against
Iran, including possible military action. Some Republican lawmakers have called for a commission to examine the
estimate's findings.
The publicly released version is a carefully worded document that rates key points as having a high, moderate, or low
degree of confidence. John McLaughlin, former deputy director of the Central Intelligence Agency, says that, having been
burned by its mistakes about Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction, the intelligence community is being very
careful, especially on an issue as sensitive as Iran.
"One of the things to which intelligence agencies pay particular attention these days is making clear their levels of
uncertainty," said McLaughlin. "This is one of the lessons of the Iraq WMD experience. And so for the agencies to say
they believe this with high confidence is very noteworthy. It tells me that they have sources who have a demonstrated
track record of producing accurate information, or they would not be saying that."
Not surprisingly, the report was welcomed in Iran, where it was termed a "victory" by officials, who have consistently
denied that Iran seeks nuclear weapons. But some analysts believe there could be some domestic political fallout in Iran
for the hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Vali Nasr says President Ahmadinejad has used the nuclear issue to rally political support and divert attention away
from the country's continuing economic woes of high unemployment and inflation.
"Now, if war is off the table, it doesn't matter what Ahmadinejad says and how much bluster he puts out," he said. "If
war is off the table, the Iranian electorate may pay a lot more attention to issues that don't favor Ahmadinejad in the
elections. I think it might have a positive effect within Iran, ironically, of refocusing everybody on domestic issues
at a time when elections are around the corner."
Iran's parliamentary elections are due in March, and the presidential election in 2009.
ENDS