Author: Toni Johnson
The Future of Climate Policy
A recently released U.S. Energy Information Agency annual report on U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2006 shows a 1.5
percent drop in emissions from 2005 levels. The agency attributes the drop to high energy prices and mild weather.
President George W. Bush hailed the findings as evidence the United States stands "well ahead of the goal" he set in
2002 of reducing "greenhouse gas intensity" by 18 percent by 2012. The president objects to mandatory emissions caps and
wants voluntary targets for reductions in "emissions intensity"--measured as emissions per unit of economic activity--as
a way to address climate change without impeding economic growth.
The idea has impressed few of the policymakers headed to the Indonesian island of Bali for a conference some hope will
outline future climate change policy. The framework governing current global climate policy, the Kyoto Protocol, will
expire in 2012.
The United States is now alone in refusing to ratify the treaty. The new prime minister-elect of Australia--the only
other holdout in the developed world--hopes to get it approved soon.
Much has changed since Kyoto. Warnings once dismissed as overheated now bear the stamp of worldwide scientific
consensus. A synthesis report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) found "warming of the climate
system is unequivocal" and could cause irreversible damage. But the report also said mitigation efforts offer
opportunities to stabilize emissions.
Given these findings, most policymakers at Bali are expected to focus on new measures to reduce the volume of
greenhouse-gas emissions. The European Union wants eight "building blocks," including reducing emissions by developed
countries by 30 percent by 2020 and 60 percent to 80 percent by 2050 (from 1990 emissions levels). But questions remain
on what really can be achieved--the IPCC report also predicts stabilizing emissions could cost as much as 5.5 percent of
the world's gross domestic output.
The high costs for mitigation will likely encourage the Bush administration to continue to argue for voluntary targets.
In a CFR.org Podcast, Joshua W. Busby, an expert on the politics of climate change, says that most people are waiting
for the "clock to run out" on the administration. But one New Zealand columnist notes that "a key challenge" for
negotiators on Bali will include formulating language to sidestep U.S. objections.
UN officials are contemplating allowing certain emissions-reduction technology to be given automatic UN emissions
credits in an attempt to lure the United States into greater participation. In the interim, a new Council Special Report
argues, the United States should adopt risk-based policies on climate change so that it will have "no regrets" even if
things turn out less severe than predicted.
The Economist notes that "expectations for Bali are low and being managed downward." Environmental advocates hope Bali
at best produces "an action plan" for agreement by 2009 on broadening the scope of the Kyoto Protocol, including more
countries making reduction commitments and efforts to avoid deforestation.
Analysts from the Brookings Institution argue that countries such as China and India--unlikely to commit to binding
emissions caps--need to make "genuine commitments", even if they are less stringent than those of developed nations.
These might include commitments on energy efficiency and clean coal.
Another key Bali issue may be addressing the impact of climate change on the world's most vulnerable populations. A
recent UN Development Program report notes that the world's poorest need more help than currently being given to adapt
to climate change.
ENDS