Cablegate: Bulgaria's Union of Democratic Forces Unites

P 191401Z FEB 97
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9111
INFO USEU BRUSSELS
EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SOFIA 001105

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/18/07
TAGS: PGOV PREL BU
SUBJECT: BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES UNITES
AS A "PARTY," PLANS PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES

REF: SOFIA 1047

1.(U) CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES A.I. ROSE
LIKINS. REASON: 1.5(D).

2.(C) SUMMARY: AT THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE
OF BULGARIA'S UNION OF DEMOCRATIC FORCES (UDF), ROUGHLY
4000 DELEGATES ENTHUSIASTICALLY AGREED TO UNIFY THE
UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO A SINGLE POLITICAL
PARTY; RE-ELECTED IVAN KOSTOV AS CHAIRMAN; ENDORSED
PARLIAMENTARY PRIMARIES; AND AUTHORIZED COALITION
NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE UDF'S UNITED OPPOSITION PARTNERS,
THE PEOPLES UNION AND THE MOVEMENT FOR RIGHTS AND
FREEDOM. WHILE NOT LONG AGO PARTY UNIFICATION AND
KOSTOV'S RE-ELECTION WERE BY NO MEANS A SURE THING,
DELEGATES, JUBILANT FROM THE END OF SOCIALIST RULE AND
THE STELLAR PERFORMANCE OF THEIR MAN IN THE PRESIDENCY,
GAVE UDF LEADERS THEIR FULL SUPPORT, AND THE CAREFULLY
ORCHESTRATED CONFERENCE WENT OFF WITHOUT A HITCH.
PRESIDENT STOYANOV ADDRESSED THE ASSEMBLY, THANKING THE
UDF FOR HIS MANDATE TO BE "PRESIDENT OF ALL BULGARIANS"
AND WISHING THE UDF SUCCESS IN ITS NEAR-CERTAIN FUTURE
GOVERNMENT. IN A RELATED DEVELOPMENT ON FEB. 18,
PRESIDENT STOYANOV YIELDED TO UDF DEMANDS THAT HE REJECT
A CONTENTIOUS, SOCIALIST-SPONSORED CHANGE IN BULGARIA'S
ELECTION LAW. END SUMMARY.

UDF LEADERSHIP ELECTIONS, CONVERSION TO A PARTY
--------------------------------------------- --

3.(C) THE FEB. 15-16 NATIONAL CONFERENCE OF BULGARIA'S
UNION OF DENOCRATIC FORCES (BULGARIA'S LARGEST
OPPOSITION FORCE WHILE THE SOCIALIST PARTY WAS IN OFFICE
THESE LAST TWO YEARS) WAS A WELL-PLANNED AND
WELL-ORCHESTRATED EVENT. OVER 4000 UDF DELEGATES
ENTHUSIASTICALLY ENDORSED THE POLITICAL AGENDA OF UDF
CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV AND RE-ELECTED HIM AND THE REST OF
THE UDF LEADERSHIP. STILL RADIANT FROM THE OVERWHELMING
NOV. 3 ELECTORAL VICTORY OF THEIR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE
PETAR STOYANOV, A MONTH OF SUCCESSFUL PROTESTS AGAINST A
SECOND SOCIALIST GOVERNMENT, AND THE SCHEDULING OF
PRE-TERM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, UDF CONFERENCE
DELEGATES GAVE HEARTY SUPPORT TO THEIR EXECUTIVE
COUNCIL'S CALL FOR UDF UNIFICATION INTO A SINGLE PARTY.
WHEREAS ONLY A FEW MONTHS AGO A SUBSTANTIAL MINORITY
QUESTIONED KOSTOV'S LEADERSHIP AND PARTICULARLY HIS
EFFORTS TO NEGOTIATE WITH MORE MODERATE SOCIALIST
DEPUTIES, NOW THE UDF LEADERSHIP COULD DO NO WRONG.

4.(U) THE DELEGATES READILY VOTED TO ACCEPT NEW
STATUTES UNIFYING THE UDF'S 15 CONSTITUENT PARTIES INTO
A SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY, ELIMINATING THE UDF NATIONAL
COORDINATING COUNCIL, TRANSFERRING ITS RESPONSIBILITIES
TO THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL (NEC), AND EXPANDING
MEMBERSHIP OF THE NEC FROM SEVEN MEMBERS TO ELEVEN.
(COMMENT: THE CUMBERSOME AND QUARRELSOME NATIONAL
COORDINATING COUNCIL GAVE UNDUE WEIGHT TO SOME OF THE
MINUTE PARTIES THAT MADE UP THE UDF COALITION. THE
COUNCIL HAD COMPRISED 139 MEMBERS: 3 FROM EACH OF THE
MEMBER PARTIES, 59 MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, 7 MEMBERS OF
THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL, AND 28 UDF REGIONAL
COUNCIL CHIEFS.)

5.(U) KOSTOV RAN UNOPPOSED FOR PARTY CHAIRMAN AND WAS
RE-ELECTED BY A SHOW OF HANDS. LAWYER MP HRISTO
BISSEROV WAS SIMILARLY ELECTED AS THE PARTY'S CHIEF
SECRETARY. IN A SECRET BALLOT, DELEGATES, CHOOSING FROM
21 CANDIDATES, ELECTED FOUR DEPUTY CHAIRMEN: MP
NADEZHEDA MIHAILOVA, MP EKATERINA MIHAILOVA, UDF FLOOR
LEADER IN THE PREVIOUS PARLIAMENT MP IORDAN SOKOLOV, AND
SOFIA UDF CHAIRMAN AND WIDELY APPLAUDED COORDINATOR OF
RECENT PROTEST ACTIVITY EVGENI BAKURDJIEV. ALSO ELECTED
TO THE UDF NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WERE ALEXANDER
BOZHKOV (DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER AND MINISTER OF INDUSTRY
IN THE CARETAKER CABINET), ECONOMIST MP MURAVEI RADEV,
LAWYER MP VASSIL GOTSEV AND UDF FORMER LEADER, FORMER
PRIME MINISTER, AND INJURED PROTEST VETERAN FILIP
DIMITROV. THE 11-MEMBER NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL WILL
ALSO INCLUDE THE UDF'S FUTURE PARLIANENTARY GROUP
LEADER.

STOYANOV AND KOSTOV ADDRESS THE FUTURE GOVERNING PARTY
--------------------------------------------- ---------

6.(U) THE PARTY CONFERENCE WAS KICKED OFF BY AN
APPEARANCE BY UDF FAVORITE SON, BULGARIAN PRESIDENT
PETAR STOYANOV. CAREFULLY ACKNOWLEDGING HIS UDF R00TS
WHILE MAINTAINING HIS R0LE AS NATI0NAL LEADER, ST0YAN0V
EXPRESSED HIS THANKS F0R HAVING BEEN GIVEN THE UDF'S
CLEAR MANDATE T0 BE A PRESIDENT T0 ALL BULGARIANS. HE
STRESSED THAT, AFTER THE UPC0MING APRIL PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTI0NS, THE DIFFICULT RESP0NSIBILITY 0F RULING
BULGARIA WILL M0ST LIKELY G0 T0 THE UDF, AND HE
EXPRESSED PRIDE THAT THE UDF IS A NATI0NALLY RESP0NSIBLE
F0RCE, READY T0 GOVERN. IN WISHING SUCCESS TO THE UDF
C0NFERENCE, HE SAID HE H0PED THAT THIS W0ULD MEAN
SUCCESS F0R BULGARIA.

7.(U) PARTY CHAIRMAN K0ST0V, DESCRIBING THE UDF AS THE
F0RCE F0R CHANGE AND GUARANT0R 0F RIGHTS, FREED0MS, AND
A EUR0PEAN 0RIENTATI0N, 8TRESSED THE IMPORTANCE 0F
AD0PTING THE NEW PARTY STRUCTURE, N0TING THAT THE UDF
HAD T0 ESTABLISH 0RDER IN ITS 0WN RANKS T0 SH0W THAT IT
C0ULD ESTABLISH 0RDER IN THE C0UNTRY. SIGNIFICANTLY,
K0ST0V ALS0 STR0NGLY EXH0RTED THE ASSEMBLY T0 REMEMBER
THE IMP0RTANT R0LE PLAYED T0 DATE BY THE UNIFIED
0PP0SITI0N AND ARGUED F0R C0NTINUED C0ALITI0N IN THE
ELECTIONS AND IN G0VERNMENT. LESS T0 HIS CREDIT, HE
ALS0 MADE THE TRADITI0NAL BUT GRATUIT0US SLAP AT FORMER
PRESIDENT ZHELEV, BLAMING HIM F0R THE FALL 0F THE FIRST
UDF G0VERNMENT UNDER FILIP DIMITR0V IN 1992.

C0NFERENCE DECISI0NS: PRIMARIES AND C0ALITI0N BUILDING
--------------------------------------------- ----------

8.(C) UDF MP ASEN AG0V C0MMENTED T0 P0L0FFS AT THE
C0NFERENCE'S C0NCLUSI0N THAT ITS SUCCESS WAS T0 HAVE
BEEN EXPECTED AS THE LEADERSHIP HAD CAREFULLY PLANNED
THE RESULTS IN ADVANCE. INDEED, THE C0NFERENCE PR0VIDED
AMPLE 0PP0RTUNITY F0R DELEGATES T0 V0ICE THEIR VIEWS IN
A SUCCESSI0N 0F 3-MINUTE SPEECHES, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY
APPROVED PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED PROGRAM DOCUMENTS AND
AUTHORIZED THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE STEPS
THAT WERE PRE-SCRIPTED, ALBEIT WIDELY ENDORSED BY THE
DELEGATES. IN ADDITION TO ADVOCATING PARTY UNIFICATION,
MANY DELEGATES DECRIED THE COUNTRY'S DISMAL SITUATION,
CALLED FOR THOSE RESPONSIBLE TO BE BROUGHT TO JUSTICE,
AND ADVOCATED "LUSTRATION" POLICIES TO RID STATE
INSTITUTIONS OF COMMUNIST INFLUENCE.

9.(U) IN ADDITION TO ACCEPTING ITS LEADERSHIP'S
POLITICAL PROGRAM, CONFERENCE DELEGATES AUTHORIZED THE
NATIONAL EXECUTIVE COUNCIL TO TAKE THE FOLLOWING
ACTIONS:

-- TO DEVELOP AN ELECTORAL PLATFORM TO GUARANTEE
BULGARIA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY, COMBAT ORGANIZED CRIME,
ATTRACT FOREIGN FINANCING AND INVESTMENT, AND CARRY OUT
SOCIAL MARKET REFORM, PRIVATIZATION, AND LAND RESTITUTION

-- TO DEVELOP A UNIFIED PERSONNEL POLICY (NOTE: A
REFERENCE TO QUESTIONS OF PAST COMMUNIST ASSOCIATIONS);

-- TO PROVIDE FOR MP CANDIDATE SELECTION THROUGH
PRIMARIES;

-- TO CONDUCT NEGOTIATIONS WITH UNITED OPPOSITION
PARTNERS FOR A PRE-ELECTORAL COALITION ON THE BASIS OF A
GENERAL PLATFORM AND PRIMARY ELECTIONS; AND

-- TO CONCLUDE A PRE-ELECTION AGREEMENT WITH UNITED
OPPOSITION PARTNERS FOR A POST-ELECTION COALITION
GOVERNMENT.

COMMENT
-------

10.(C) THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND UNIFYING THE UDF WAS
ITS CHAIRMAN IVAN KOSTOV, WHO HAD FOR MONTHS ADVOCATED
FORMATION OF A SINGLE PARTY PRIOR TO PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS. AMONG OTHER REASONS, KOSTOV WANTED TO FORM A
SINGLE UNIFIED PARTY SO THAT HE WOULD NOT BE FACED WITH
CONFLICTING MINISTERIAL PORTFOLIO DEMANDS FROM 15 UDF
MEMBER PARTIES (MANY TINY AND THIN ON EXPERTISE) IF THE
UDF CAME TO POWER. NOT SURPRISINGLY, WHEN FIRST
PROPOSED OFFICIALLY BY THE NATIONAL EXECUTIVE BOARD ON
NOV. 19, THIS NOTION FACED STIFF RESISTANCE FROM THE
LEADERS OF A NUMBER OF THE SMALL PARTIES WHO FEARED
LOSING THEIR OWN PERSONAL POWER OR INFLUENCE. KOSTOV
THUS CAME UNDER SERIOUS THREAT OF LOSING HIS LEADERSHIP
POST, BUT HIS P0SITI0N WAS B0LSTERED GREATLY BY THE
SUCCESS 0F THE RECENT ANTI-S0CIALIST PR0TESTS.

11. (C) N0W WITH A UNIFIED PARTY BEHIND HIM, K0ST0V AND
0THER UDF LEADERS STILL FACE AN EN0RMOUS CHALLENGE TO
0RGANIZE AND ADMINISTER PRIMARIES AND SUBSEQUENT
ELECT0RAL CAMPAIGNS IN LESS THAN TW0 M0NTHS. A RELATED
AND EQUALLY DIFFICULT CHALLENGE WILL BE T0 NEG0TIATE
C0ALITI0N ARRANGEMENTS WITH THEIR UNITED 0PP0SITI0N
PARTNERS, WH0 ARE N0T AS WELL-EQUIPPED T0 PARTICIPATE IN
PRIMARIES AND WH0 WILL HAVE P0RTF0LI0 DEMANDS 0F THEIR
0WN. THE C0NTENTI0US ISSUE 0F L0WERING THE THRESH0LD
F0R ENTRY INT0 PARLIAMENT FR0M F0UR PERCENT T0 THREE
PERCENT (AN ELECTION LAW AMENDMENT PUSHED THROUGH BY THE
S0CIALIST PARTY 0N THE PARLIAMENT'S LAST DAY IN SESSI0N
- REFTEL) COMES INT0 PLAY HERE. 0N FEB. 18, PRESIDENT
STOYAN0V YIELDED TO K0STOV'S INSISTENCE THAT HE REJECT
ELECTI0N LAW AMENDMENTS BECAUSE 0F THIS PR0P0SED
CHANGE. THE FALL-0UT FROM THE RETENTI0N 0F THE F0UR
PERCENT BARRIER IS UNCERTAIN BUT WILL BE A KEY FACT0R IN
THE UDF'S NEG0TIATI0N WITH THE MAINLY ETHNIC TURKISH
M0VEMENT F0R RIGHTS AND FREED0MS, THE SPLINTERED
AGRARIAN UNI0N 0F ANASTASIYA M0SER, AND STEFAN SAV0V'S
DEM0CRATIC PARTY.
LIKINS

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