Cablegate: Romanian President Ion Iliescu - a Political Biography

R 231153Z JUN 95
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 7939

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BUCHAREST 006434

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINS RO

SUBJECT: ROMANIAN PRESIDENT ION ILIESCU - A POLITICAL BIOGRAPHY

1. CONFIDENTIAL-ENTIRE TEXT.

2. SUMMARY: THIS IS THE FIRST OF TWO CABLES FOCUSING ON ROMANIAN PRESIDENT ION ILIESCU, AND COVERS HIS POLITICAL HISTORY THROUGH THE 1992 ELECTIONS. SEPTEL WILL DEAL WITH HIS CURRENT POWERS AND ROLE IN THE ROMANIAN POLITICAL SYSTEM. ILIESCU, WHO WAS BORN INTO A COMMUNIST FAMILY IN 1930, ROSE RAPIDLY IN THE PARTY HIERARCHY UNTIL HE BEGAN TO CRITICIZE THE EXCESSES OF DICTATOR NICOLAE CEAUSESCU IN THE EARLY 1970'S. ILIESCU THEN EXPERIENCED A SERIES OF DEMOTIONS, AND BY 1984 HAD FALLEN TO THE POSITION OF DIRECTOR OF AN OBSCURE PUBLISHING HOUSE. HOWEVER, HE HAD BECOME KNOWN AS A PARTY DISSIDENT, AND WITH THE RISE OF GORBACHEV, ILIESCU BEGAN ADVOCATING AN OPENING OF ROMANIAN SOCIETY ALONG THE LINES THEN BEING PURSUED IN MOSCOW. IN THE CHAOS WHICH FOLLOWED THE SUDDEN FALL OF THE CEAUSESCU REGIME IN DECEMBER, 1989, THE INTELLECTUALS WHO WERE SEEKING TO ESTABLISH A NEW POLITICAL ORDER TURNED TO THE MORE EXPERIENCED ILIESCU FOR LEADERSHIP, AND HE QUICKLY BECAME THE DOMINANT FIGURE IN THE AD HOC NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT (NSF) GOVERNMENT.

3. GIVEN THE TOTAL LACK OF ORGANIZED OPPOSITION GROUPS IN ROMANIA PRIOR TO THE REVOLUTION, ILIESCU HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO KEEP THE OLD BUREAUCRACY IN OFFICE, BUT THIS DECISION ALIENATED THE INTELLECTUALS AND THE EMERGING OPPOSITION PARTIES. ILIESCU AND THE NSF MOVED QUICKLY TO LAY THE FOUNDATIONS FOR A PLURALISTIC POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HE WON THE PRESIDENCY HANDILY IN THE MAY, 1990 ELECTIONS - WHICH, ALTHOUGH SERIOUSLY FLAWED, REFLECTED THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE - BUT THE OPPOSITION PARTIES REFUSED TO ACCEPT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE GOVERNMENT AND CLAIMED THAT ILIESCU WAS A "CRYPTO-COMMUNIST." ILIESCU COMPOUNDED HIS PROBLEMS BY SUMMONING MINERS TO BUCHAREST IN JUNE, 1990, TO END THE OCCUPATION OF A MAJOR SQUARE BY PROTESTING STUDENTS. IN SEPTEMBER, 1991, THE MINERS AGAIN CAME TO BUCHAREST AND FORCED THE RESIGNATION OF PRIME MINISTER PETRE ROMAN, WITH WHOM ILIESCU HAD EARLIER SPLIT DUE TO A DISPUTE ON THE PACE OF REFORM AS WELL AS S CLASH OF AMBITIONS. HOWEVER, ILIESCU THEN APPOINTED A RESPECTED TECHNOCRAT AS PRIME MINISTER, WHO, WITH ILIESCU'S BACKING, ORGANIZED THE FREE AND FAIR ELECTION OF SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 1992. ILIESCU AGAIN WON THE PRESIDENCY BY A WIDE MARGIN, HAVING CAMPAIGNED ON A PLATFORM OF GRADUAL REFORM AND A STRONG SOCIAL SAFETY NET TO EASE THE PAIN OF THE TRANSITION TO THE MARKET.

4. GIVEN ILIESCU'S POLITICAL HISTORY AND OUR CLOSE OBSERVATION OF HIM OVER THE PAST FIVE YEARS, WE HAVE NO DIFFICULTY IN BELIEVING THAT HE IS COMMITTED TO THE DEMOCRATIC POLITICAL SYSTEM WHICH HE PLAYED A LARGE PART IN ESTABLISHING. HOWEVER, ILIESCU IS CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF RAPID MOVEMENT TOWARD PRIVATIZATION ON ROMANIA'S WORKERS - NOT SURPRISINGLY, IN VIEW OF HIS BACKGROUND. HE TOLD AMBASSADOR MOSES RECENTLY THAT THE 1990 STUDENT PROTESTORS IN BUCHAREST WERE REALLY PAWNS OF THE REESTABLISHED HISTORIC PARTIES, WHICH WERE USING THEM IN AN EFFORT TO RESTORE THE PRE-WWII SOCIAL ORDER WITH ITS ENORMOUS DISPARITIES OF WEALTH. WHETHER THERE IS ANY TRUTH TO THIS INTERPRETATION OR NOT, IT IS INDICATIVE OF ILIESCU'S VIEWS. ON ECONOMIC MATTERS, HE IS PRO-REFORM BUT WANTS TO PROTECT THE WORKERS. THIS IS BOTH IDEOLOGICAL AND REFLECTIVE OF THE FACT THAT HIS POLITICAL BASE AND THAT OF HIS PARTY (PDSR) LIES WITH THE ROMANIAN WORKERS EMPLOYED FOR THE LAST FOUR DECADES BY STATE- OWNED BUSINESSES. AS HE PUT IT IN THE 1992 CAMPAIGN, HIS GOAL IS A "SOCIAL MARKET ECONOMY" - AN ECONOMY WITH PRIVATE PROPERTY AND FREE ENTERPRISE, BUT ONE IN WHICH STATE REGULATION IS USED TO PREVENT THE EXTREME INEQUALITIES AND MASSIVE POVERTY WHICH CHARACTERIZED THE PRE-WAR ORDER. SINCE 1992, ILIESCU HAS GIVEN MORE SUPPORT TO REFORMS, INCLUDING AUSTERITY MEASURES, THAN SUCH CAMPAIGN RHETORIC WOULD HAVE LED ONE TO EXPECT (SEPTEL), BUT IN OUR VIEW HE WILL NEVER BE PREPARED TO GO FURTHER TOWARD AN UNREGULATED MARKET THAN A TRADITIONAL EUROPEAN SOCIAL DEMOCRAT. END SUMMARY.

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5. FROM COMMUNIST ORTHODOXY TO DISSIDENCE

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ILIESCU CAME FROM A WORKING CLASS COMMUNIST BACKGROUND AND ROSE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE PARTY RANKS UNTIL HIS 1971 BREAK WITH CEAUSESCU. ILIESCU'S FATHER, A RAILWAY WORKER, WAS ONE OF THE FEW ETHNIC ROMANIAN ACTIVISTS IN THE TINY PRE-WWII ROMANIAN COMMUNIST PARTY (RCP). ILIESCU HIMSELF JOINED THE COMMUNIST YOUTH ORGANIZATION IN 1944 AT THE AGE OF 14 AND, AFTER OBTAINING HYDROENGINEERING DEGREES FROM THE BUCHAREST POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND THE MOSCOW ENERGY INSTITUTE, HELD POSITIONS ON THE YOUTH ORGANIZATION'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE. IN 1965 HE BECAME AN ALTERNATE MEMBER OF THE RCP CENTRAL COMMITTEE AND IN 1967 HE WAS MADE A FULL MEMBER, AS WELL AS BEING APPOINTED MINISTER OF YOUTH AFFAIRS. IN 1969 HE WAS NAMED AN ALTERNATE MEMBER OF THE CENTRAL COMMITTEE'S POWERFUL POLITICAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE (POLITBURO).

6. DESPITE HIS ORTHODOX COMMUNIST BACKGROUND AND RAPID RISE IN THE PARTY HIERARCHY, ILIESCU BEGAN TO CRITICIZE CEAUSESCU'S GROWING CULT OF PERSONALITY, NEPOTISM, AND EXTREME ECONOMIC CENTRALIZATION POLICIES. AS A RESULT, AND PROBABLY ALSO BECAUSE HE WAS VIEWED IN SOME QUARTERS AS A POSSIBLE EVENTUAL SUCCESSOR TO CEAUSESCU, HE WAS DISMISSED FROM THE YOUTH MINISTRY IN 1971 AND DEMOTED TO THE POSITION OF SECRETARY OF THE TIMIS COUNTY RCP. IN 1974, ILIESCU OBTAINED THE MORE IMPORTANT POSITION OF FIRST SECRETARY OF THE IASI COUNTY RCP, BUT HIS OUTSPOKENNESS AND LOCAL POPULARITY AGAIN LED TO DEMOTION IN 1978, THIS TIME TO THE CHAIRMANSHIP OF THE WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL. HE ALSO LOST HIS POLITICAL EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE POSITION THAT YEAR. NEVERTHELESS, ILIESCU CONTINUED TO TAKE A CRITICAL STANCE TOWARD THE CEAUSESCU REGIME, AND IN 1984 HE LOST BOTH HIS RCP CENTRAL COMMITTEE SEAT AND EVEN HIS WATER RESOURCES COUNCIL POSITION. FROM 1984 TO THE DECEMBER 1989 REVOLUTION, ILIESCU SERVED IN OBSCURITY AS THE DIRECTOR OF A TECHNICAL PUBLISHING HOUSE, BUT DURING THIS PERIOD HE BEGAN ADVOCATING AN OPENING OF ROMANIAN SOCIETY ALONG THE LINES BEING PURSUED BY GORBACHEV IN THE THEN USSR.

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7. ILIESCU STEPS INTO THE POST-REVOLUTIONARY LEADERSHIP VACUUM ---------------

DESPITE HIS YEARS IN THE POLITICAL WILDERNESS, ILIESCU WAS WELL-KNOWN AND POPULAR AMONG POLITICALLY ATTUNED ROMANIANS ON THE EVE OF THE 1989 REVOLUTION. SINCE THERE WERE NO DISSIDENT GROUPS IN ROMANIA READY AND WAITING TO TAKE POWER FOLLOWING THE SUDDEN FALL OF CEAUSESCU, THE ISSUE OF WHO WOULD NOW RUN THE COUNTRY FELL BY DEFAULT INTO THE HANDS OF THOSE CITIZENS OF BUCHAREST - PRIMARILY INTELLECTUALS - WHO HAD GATHERED SPONTANEOUSLY AT VARIOUS SITES TO DISCUSS THE CHAOTIC SITUATION CREATED BY THE COLLAPSE OF THE DICTATORSHIP. MANY OF THEM TURNED TO THE POLITICALLY MORE EXPERIENCED ILIESCU FOR LEADERSHIP BECAUSE HE HAD ANTI-CEAUSESCU CREDENTIALS AND SEEMED TO UNDERSTAND HOW ORDER COULD BE RESTORED QUICKLY. ILIESCU ALMOST IMMEDIATELY EMERGED AS THE DOMINANT FIGURE IN THE AD HOC NATIONAL SALVATION FRONT (NSF) GOVERNMENT.

8. COMMENT: OTHER INTERPRETATIONS OF THE 1989 REVOLUTION HAVE IT THAT ILIESCU AND LIKE-MINDED PARTY DISSIDENTS HAD EITHER BEEN PLOTTING A COUP AND USED THE REVOLUTION AS A COVER TO STAGE IT, OR STEPPED IN AND "STOLE" THE REVOLUTION AS IT WAS OCCURRING. WE FIND THE FIRST INTERPRETATION TOO PARANOID TO BE ACCEPTABLE WITHOUT OVERWHELMING PROOF. AS FOR THE SECOND, SINCE THE REVOLUTION WAS NOT LED BY AN ESTABLISHED ANTI-COMMUNIST GROUP SUCH AS SOLIDARITY, BUT BROKE OUT SPONTANEOUSLY, WHO IS ILIESCU SUPPOSED TO HAVE STOLEN IT FROM? END COMMENT.

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9. TWO BAD YEARS

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DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZED ANTI-COMMUNIST OPPOSITION FORCES PRIOR TO THE REVOLUTION, ILIESCU HAD NO ALTERNATIVE BUT TO KEEP THE OLD POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC BUREAUCRACY IN OFFICE, EXCEPT AT THE VERY HIGHEST LEVELS. HOWEVER, GIVEN HIS OWN BACKGROUND, HE PROBABLY FELT NO DESIRE TO PURGE THOSE OFFICIALS WHO WERE READY AND ABLE TO ADJUST TO A NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM. (NOTE: A POINT OF VIEW MORE ACCEPTABLE NOW THAT FORMER COMMUNISTS HOLD POWER THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REGION. END NOTE.) MANY OF THE INTELLECTUALS WHO HAD INITIALLY SUPPORTED ILIESCU TURNED AGAINST HIM BECAUSE OF HIS FAILURE TO PURGE THE BUREAUCRACY AND HIS LATER DECISION TO TURN THE NSF INTO A PARTY - ONE WHICH THE BUREAUCRATS HE HAD RETAINED IN OFFICE NATURALLY SUPPORTED. GIVEN ILIESCU'S OWN COMMUNIST PAST, IT WAS EASY FOR THE INTELLECTUALS AND THE EMERGING OPPOSITION PARTIES TO DISPUTE THE VERY LEGITIMACY OF THE PROVISIONAL NSF GOVERNMENT - A TACTIC WHOSE CONTINUED USE STILL EMBITTERS ROMANIAN POLITICS TODAY.

10. ILIESCU AND THE NSF QUICKLY MOVED TO ESTABLISH CIVIL LIBERTIES AND A PLURALISTIC POLITICAL SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THE MAY 1990 ELECTIONS, IN WHICH ILIESCU WAS ELECTED PRESIDENT WITH 85& OF THE VOTE, WERE SERIOUSLY FLAWED. THE NSF HAD CONSIDERABLE ADVANTAGES IN TERMS OF CONTROL OF AND/OR ACCESS TO THE MEDIA, FUNDS, AND OTHER RESOURCES BASIC TO AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN. WORSE, NSF SUPPORTERS INTIMIDATED AND HARASSED OPPOSITION CANDIDATES IN THE RURAL AREAS. ALTHOUGH ILIESCU AND THE NSF WOULD HAVE WON IN ANY CASE, THE NATURE OF THE CAMPAIGN ALLOWED THE OPPOSITION TO CHALLENGE THE VALIDITY OF THE RESULTS, AND THEY CONTINUED TO ASSERT THAT THE GOVERNMENT WAS ILLEGITIMATE AND ILIESCU A "CRYPTO- COMMUNIST."

11. ILIESCU THEN COMPOUNDED HIS PROBLEMS BY MAKING THE WORST MISTAKE OF HIS POST-REVOLUTION CAREER - CALLING MINERS INTO BUCHAREST IN JUNE, 1990, TO BREAK UP A MONTHS LONG OCCUPATION OF A CENTRAL SQUARE BY STUDENT PROTESTORS. (NOTE: ILIESCU HAS CLAIMED, NOT VERY CONVINCINGLY, THAT HE DID NOT CALL IN THE MINERS AND THAT THEIR ARRIVAL IN BUCHAREST RESULTED FROM THEIR OWN PATRIOTIC INITIATIVE. END NOTE.) THE MINERS NOT ONLY USED VIOLENCE AGAINST THE STUDENTS, BUT ATTACKED THE OFFICES OF OPPOSITION PARTIES AS WELL. ILIESCU'S IMAGE ABROAD SANK STILL FURTHER WHEN HE SPLIT WITH HIS NSF PRIME MINISTER, PETRE ROMAN, ON THE GROUND THAT ROMAN WAS MOVING TOO QUICKLY ON ECONOMIC REFORM, BUT ALSO DUE TO CLASHING AMBITIONS AND SHARPLY CONTRASTING PERSONAL STYLES. AFTER SEVERAL MONTHS OF DISSENSION WITHIN THE NSF, THE MINERS CAME TO BUCHAREST AGAIN IN SEPTEMBER OF 1991 TO DEMAND ROMAN'S OUSTER. THIS TIME, HOWEVER, IT WAS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THEY HAD BEEN SUMMONED OR HAD COME OF THEIR OWN VOLITION DUE TO A DROP IN THEIR REAL INCOME WHICH THEY ATTRIBUTED TO ROMAN'S POLICIES. WHATEVER THEIR ORIGINAL PURPOSE, ON ARRIVAL IN THE CAPITAL SOME OF THE MINERS BEGAN CALLING FOR ILIESCU'S DEPARTURE AS WELL AS ROMAN'S, AND MARCHED ON HIS OFFICE AT COTROCENI PALACE. ILIESCU RESPONDED BY OBTAINING ROMAN'S RESIGNATION, WHICH DEFUSED THE SITUATION AND ENABLED HIM TO GET THE MINERS TO LEAVE BUCHAREST PEACEFULLY. SHORTLY THEREAFTER THE NSF BROKE UP, AND ROMAN AND THE YOUNG TECHNOCRATS WHO SUPPORTED HIM FORMED THEIR OWN PARTY WHILE THE BUREAUCRATS REMAINED WITH ILIESCU.

12. COMMENT: ILIESCU HAS TOLD US THAT THE STUDENTS PROTESTS OF SPRING 1990 WERE INSPIRED BY THE NEWLY REESTABLISHED HISTORICAL PARTIES - THE NATIONAL PEASANT PARTY (PNTCD) AND THE NATIONAL LIBERAL PARTY (PNL). THESE PARTIES, HE ARGUED, WERE ATTEMPTING TO USE THE STUDENTS TO "STEAL" THE 1989 REVOLUTION FOR THEIR OWN PURPOSES: REVERSAL OF THE TREND TOWARD

EGALITARIANISM WHICH CAME WITH POST-WWII COMMUNIST RULE AND THE RESTORATION OF THE PRE-WWII SOCIAL ORDER, AN ORDER MARKED IN ILIESCU'S VIEW (AND IN FACT) BY ENORMOUS DISPARITIES OF WEALTH AND MASSIVE POVERTY. ALTHOUGH MORE PRO-REFORM THAN MANY OTHER OFFICIALS OF THE CURRENT GOVERNMENT, INCLUDING PM VACAROIU, ILIESCU FAVORS A PARTIAL GRATIS DISTRIBUTION OF OWNERSHIP IN PRIVATIZED ENTERPRISES TO THE ROMANIAN PEOPLE, AS EVIDENCED BY THE RECENTLY ENACTED MASS PRIVATIZATION LAW WHICH PROVIDES THAT ALL CITIZENS WILL RECEIVE OWNERSHIP CERTIFICATES OF EQUAL VALUE TO EXCHANGE FOR STOCK IN THE ENTERPRISES TO BE TO BE PRIVATIZED. ILIESCU IS ALSO ANXIOUS TO AVERT, TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, THE MASSIVE UNEMPLOYMENT WHICH COULD FOLLOW FROM PRIVATIZATION AND ECONOMIC RESTRUCTURING. IT IS ILIESCU'S OWN LABOR CONSTITUENCY - WHICH ENJOYED JOB SECURITY, IF LITTLE ELSE, DURING THE COMMUNIST REGIME - WHICH WOULD BE MOST NEGATIVELY EFFECTED, AND HE IS NATURALLY RELUCTANT TO RISK ALIENATING IT BY TAKING THE LEAD IN FORCING RADICAL RESTRUCTURING. ILIESCU MAY HAVE ANTICIPATED THAT THE HISTORICAL PARTIES - WHOSE CONSTITUENCIES HAVE THE MOST TO GAIN FROM PRIVATIZATION - WOULD TAKE THE LEAD IN PERSUADING ROMANIANS TO ACCEPT THE TEMPORARY PAIN WHICH RESTRUCTURING ENTAILS; BUT UNFORTUNATELY THEY HAVE NOT EVEN SUPPORTED THE GOR'S OWN MOVES IN THE DIRECTION OF REFORM, PREFERRING TO CRITICIZE THEM FOR THE SAKE OF POLITICAL ADVANTAGE. NEVERTHELESS, ILIESCU HIMSELF IS UNWILLING TO PUSH FOR RAPID RESTRUCTURING IF THE PRICE IS UNEMPLOYMENT FOR THE MANY AND MASSIVE AGGREGATIONS OF WEALTH FOR A FEW.

13.COMMENT CONTINUED: AS ILIESCU PUT IT DURING THE 1992 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN - AND HE HAS NOT DEVIATED SINCE - HIS GOAL IS "A SOCIAL MARKET ECONOMY," NOT "SAVAGE CAPITALISM." IN OTHER WORDS, PRIVATE PROPERTY AND FREE ENTERPRISE ARE FINE SO LONG AS STATE REGULATION PREVENTS THE CREATION OF ENORMOUS INCOME AND CLASS DISPARITIES. THUS, WHILE ILIESCU FULLY SUPPORTED THE POST-REVOLUTION SALE OF STATE-OWNED APARTMENTS TO THEIR TENANTS AT BARGAIN PRICES - A MOVE WHICH CREATED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF HOME OWNERS AT A STROKE - HE HAS JUST AS VEHEMENTLY OPPOSED THE PHYSICAL RETURN OF NATIONALIZED DWELLINGS TO THEIR FORMER OWNERS, WHOM HE PROBABLY CONSIDERS, BUT HAS NOT PUBLICLY DESCRIBED, AS PRE-WAR "ARISTOCRATS". ILIESCU'S VETOES OF ATTEMPTS BY EX-KING MICHAEL TO TRAVEL TO ROMANIA UNTIL HE FORMALLY RENOUNCES THE THRONE AND PLEDGES NOT TO USE A VISIT TO INCITE PRO-MONARCHIST DEMONSTRATIONS HAVE ALSO NO DOUBT BEEN INSPIRED IN LARGE MEASURE BY HIS AVERSION TO THE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL ORDER OF PRE-WAR ROMANIA. IN ANY CASE, HOWEVER, THERE IS LITTLE POPULAR SUPPORT FOR RESTORING THE MONARCHY (NO MORE THAN 20& HAVE EVER FAVORED IT, ACCORDING TO PUBLIC OPINION POLLS) AND EVEN THE PNTCD IS NOW DOWNPLAYING ITS TRADITIONAL MONARCHISM. END COMMENT.

14. THE TURN OF THE TIDE

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FOLLOWING THE FALL OF THE ROMAN GOVERNMENT, ILIESCU IMMEDIATELY TOOK THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF STEPS WHICH REESTABLISHED HIS CREDENTIALS AS A POLITICAL DEMOCRAT AND AN ADVOCATE, HOWEVER CAUTIOUS, OF ECONOMIC REFORM. HE APPOINTED TEODOR STOLOJAN, A WELL-RESPECTED ECONOMIST WITHOUT PARTY AFFILIATION, AS PRIME MINISTER. STOLOJAN, WITH ILIESCU'S SUPPORT, DEFINED HIS PRIMARY TASK AS ORGANIZING FREE AND FAIR LOCAL AND NATIONAL ELECTIONS WITHIN A YEAR, AFTER WHICH HE WOULD RESIGN. DURING THE RUN-UP TO THE FALL 1992 ELECTIONS, ILIESCU AND HIS PARTY - SHORTLY TO BE RENAMED THE PARTY OF SOCIAL DEMOCRACY (PDSR) - CAMPAIGNED ON A PLATFORM OF GRADUAL ECONOMIC REFORM AND A STRONG SOCIAL SAFETY NET TO MINIMIZE THE PAIN OF THE TRANSITION TO THE MARKET. THE PDSR WON 27& OF THE VOTE IN THE ELECTIONS - WHICH ALL INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS CONSIDERED FAIR AND FREE - WHICH GAVE IT A PLURALITY. ILIESCU DID FAR BETTER THAN HIS PARTY. RUNNING AGAINST FIVE OTHER CANDIDATES, HE WON 47& OF THE VOTE IN THE FIRST ROUND OF THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IN THE SECOND ROUND, RUNNING ONLY AGAINST THE STRONGEST OPPOSITION CANDIDATE, ILIESCU TOOK 61& OF THE VOTE.

15.COMMENT: MOST ANALYSTS HERE ATTRIBUTE ILIESCU'S 1992 VICTORY TO HIS COMBINATION OF DIGNITY, WHICH ROMANIANS EXPECT OF A PRESIDENT, AND A "COMMON MAN" APPROACH - ONE OF ILIESCU'S MOST EFFECTIVE CAMPAIGN SLOGANS WAS "FROM US, FOR US." IN OUR VIEW, ILIESCU DOES CONSIDER HIMSELF TO BE, IF NOT A COMMON MAN, THEN AT LEAST THE COMMON MAN'S DEFENDER. THIS ATTITUDE IS A NATURAL OUTGROWTH OF HIS COMMITMENT TO EGALITARIANISM AND HATRED OF THE PRE-WAR SOCIAL ORDER, AND HAS BEEN REFLECTED NOT ONLY IN HIS POSITION ON SUCH ISSUES AS NATIONALIZED HOUSING, BUT IN HIS REPEATED - BUT UNHEEDED - DEMANDS THAT THE MP'S OF HIS OWN PARTY EITHER RESIGN FROM LUCRATIVE ECONOMIC POSITIONS ON THE BOARDS OF STATE ENTERPRISES OR LEAVE PARLIAMENT, AS WELL AS IN HIS DENUNCIATIONS OF CORRUPTION IN GENERAL. IT IS SIGNIFICANT THAT ILIESCU IS ONE OF THE FEW POLITICAL LEADERS HERE WHO HAS NOT BEEN SUBJECTED TO CONSTANT - AND IN MANY CASES, WELL-GROUNDED - ACCUSATIONS OF CORRUPTION. IN FACT, SOME OPPOSITION LEADERS CRITICIZED ILIESCU'S STATED DESIRE TO "DIE A POOR MAN" NOT ON GROUNDS OF HYPOCRISY, BUT OF "STUPIDITY."

16.COMMENT CONTINUED: HOWEVER, ILIESCU IS NOW CAUGHT IN A POLITICAL VICE BETWEEN HIS PRO-REFORM, PRO-WESTERN POLICIES AND HIS POLITICAL BASE, WHICH IS FIRMLY GROUNDED IN A CONSTITUENCY THAT FEARS RAPID CHANGE, BEING THE LEAST ABLE TO COPE WITH A FREE MARKET AND FULL LABOR MOBILITY. CONTROLLING INFLATION AND RAISING REAL WAGES, EVEN MINIMALLY, HAVE HELPED, BUT IN THE LONG-RUN HIS PRO-REFORM POLICIES WILL UNDERMINE HIM AND HIS PARTY IN ROMANIA. ILIESCU WILL CONTINUE TO BE PORTRAYED BY THE OPPOSITION AS A CRYPTO-COMMUNIST MASQUERADING IN WESTERN GARB. BUT WHILE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE HISTORIC PARTIES (PEASANT AND LIBERAL) TALK REFORM, THEY VOTED AGAINST THE IMF AGREEMENT AND THE MASS PRIVATIZATION LAW TO DENY THE GOVERNMENT THE LEGITIMACY THAT THEIR CONCURRENCE WOULD HAVE BROUGHT. ILIESCU IS ATTEMPTING TO SURVIVE ON THE HORNS OF THIS DILEMMA BY PROTECTING THE WORKER AT THE SAME TIME THAT ROMANIA PRIVATIZES, PRIMARILY BY MEANS OF MANAGEMENT-EMPLOYEE BUY-OUTS (MEBO'S), WHICH CONTINUE TO BE PERMITTED UNDER THE MASS PRIVATIZATION LAW, COMBINED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF OWNERSHIP CERTIFICATES TO THE PUBLIC. THIS POLICY MAY HAVE SHORT-TERM POLITICAL BENEFITS BUT LONG-TERM NEGATIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR A COUNTRY THAT WILL SOON HAVE MORE THAN 3000 FORMER STATE-OWNED BUSINESSES OWNED AND OPERATED BY MANAGEMENT - AND/OR MILLIONS OF NEW SMALL SHAREHOLDERS - AND PRESENT EMPLOYEES, WITH CONFLICTING SHORT AND LONG-TERM INTERESTS.

17. COMMENT CONTINUED: ILIESCU'S "COMMON MAN" ORIENTATION IS ALSO REFLECTED IN HIS PRIVATE LIFE. HE AND HIS WIFE ELENA, WHO HAS AN ENGINEERING DEGREE, ARE CHILDLESS AND LIVE MODESTLY IN AN APARTMENT BUILDING WHICH CONTAINS FOUR OTHER UNITS. THEY NEVER APPEAR ON THE BUCHAREST NIGHT LIFE CIRCUIT AND ELENA IS VERY RARELY SEEN IN PUBLIC AT ALL, NOR DOES SHE ACCOMPANY HER HUSBAND ON HIS OFFICIAL TRIPS ABROAD. ILIESCU HAS LEARNED TO SPEAK ENGLISH QUITE WELL SINCE THE 1989 REVOLUTION, AND ALSO SPEAKS RUSSIAN, FRENCH, AND SOME SPANISH. ELENA ILIESCU DOES NOT SPEAK ENGLISH. HOWEVER, SHE IS REPORTED TO HAVE INTELLECTUAL INTERESTS AND TO BE A READER OF AMERICAN FICTION. ILIESCU, WHO RECOVERED RAPIDLY FROM GALL BLADDER SURGERY LAST SUMMER, APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD HEALTH. HIS WIFE, HOWEVER, REPORTEDLY HAS A SERIOUS MEDICAL PROBLEM - PERHAPS CANCER. END COMMENT.

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