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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 USNATO 000069
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
H FOR CODEL MCCASKILL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL NATO RS
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR CODEL MCCASKILL
USNATO 00000069 001.2 OF 003
1. (U) Welcome to Brussels, and to NATO!
2. (SBU) Your visit comes at an exciting time for NATO as
Allies redouble our efforts to succeed operationally while
working together to redefine NATO to meet the security
challenges of the future. America is playing a key role, as
we have in the past, working with Europeans and Canadians to
ensure success in our joint endeavors and to demonstrate that
unity between Europe and the United States is the best means
of maintaining peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic
space.
3. (SBU) Afghanistan, Russia, missile defense, and the
Balkans are at the top of NATO's agenda, along with NATO's
revision of its underlying Strategic Concept and NATO reform.
The last two issues are likely to have significant impact on
how the Alliance does business and its effectiveness in the
future.
--------------------
AFGHANISTAN/PAKISTAN
--------------------
4. (SBU) Despite what you may have read in the press, NATO
and its partners have stepped forward to shoulder a
significant amount of the burden in Afghanistan.
Approximately 40,000 troops from 43 nations have joined the
U.S. in the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force
(ISAF). Those nations have suffered 40 percent of the
casualties, as well. In recent months, the Alliance has
recommitted itself to our joint endeavor by:
-- endorsing the counter-insurgency approach developed by
COMISAF GEN McChrystal;
-- establishing a three-star joint command under U.S. LTG
Rodriguez, so that COMISAF can focus his efforts at the
strategic level;
-- creating a NATO Training Mission in Afghanistan to help
train the Afghan National Security Forces more rapidly and
more effectively;
-- appointing a new NATO Senior Civilian Representative to
Afghanistan with an expanded mandate to better coordinate the
civilian side of the counter-insurgency campaign;
-- pledging approximately 9,000 more troops in response to
President Obama's December 1 decision to increase the U.S.
force contribution in Afghanistan; and
-- taking steps to develop a broader relationship with
Pakistan, in recognition of the importance of the regional
dimension.
NATO Allies and non-NATO troop contributors have increased
their contribution in Afghanistan despite skeptical publics
and serious economic constraints.
We will continue to ask even more of our Allies. We are now
focused on getting Allies to provide significantly more
trainers to accelerate the capability of the Afghan national
security forces and gradually begin transferring security
responsibility to the Afghan authorities. Similarly, we need
Allies, and others, to contribute to the trust funds that
will help sustain the Afghan forces.
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RUSSIA
------
5. (SBU) Differences exist within NATO over the Alliance's
relationship with Moscow. Several western Allies seek to
enhance engagement and minimize differences with Russia,
while eastern Allies remain wary of Russian intentions. The
U.S. seeks concrete opportunities to cooperate with Russia
USNATO 00000069 002 OF 003
and build a more open relationship, but recognizes
differences will continue. NATO's principal forum for
dialogue with Russia, the NATO-Russia Council (NRC),
established in 2002, has failed to live up to expectations.
The present NRC structure, which serves as a forum for
confidence building and political dialogue, satisfies some
Allies but worries the Russia skeptics who believe that
Moscow uses the NRC to sow division within the Alliance.
6. (SBU) The U.S. goal is to transform the NRC, so that it
delivers concrete benefits to NATO by advancing practical
cooperation with Russia. To date, Moscow has used the NRC
for political discussions on Afghan strategy or its proposals
for a new European security architecture, rather than
pragmatic cooperation. If we can convince Moscow to move away
from zero-sum thinking, we can generate practical cooperation
in missile defense, counter-narcotics and, perhaps,
Afghanistan, counter-piracy, and counter-terrorism by the
November 2010 Lisbon NATO Summit. At the same time, we
cannot ignore Russian violations of internationally accepted
commitments and principles -- the very principles upon which
NATO was founded.
---------------
MISSILE DEFENSE
---------------
7. (SBU) In December, NATO Foreign Ministers welcomed the
Administration's Phased Adaptive Approach to Missile
Defense, acknowledging that it would be a valuable national
contribution to any NATO territorial missile defense
capability. At their Strasbourg-Kehl Summit last April, NATO
Heads of State and Government tasked NATO to present
architecture recommendations for an Alliance territorial
ballistic missile defense system at this November's Lisbon
Summit. We are currently working to ensure that the
appropriate architecture study is funded and completed so
that leaders have the information they need to chart the
future of Missile Defense at Lisbon. We have crossed most
political hurdles here, but inadequate common resources
continue to present challenges.
-----------
The Balkans
-----------
8. (SBU) Due to improving security conditions in Kosovo,
NATO began downsizing its KFOR mission last summer. On
January 31, NATO completed the first phase of the KFOR
drawdown to 10,000 personnel, called Gate 1. Some Allies are
pushing to move rapidly to the next phase, Gate 2, cutting
troop strength in half to approximately 5,000. We and others
are concerned that a precipitous move to Gate 2 may undermine
the stability KFOR has worked so hard to achieve. The
political situation in the North remains tenuous and the
international community is just now launching an effort to
overcome the political stalemate that exists. The current
force structure provides the reassurance and deterrence
necessary to start tackling the sensitive issues without
risking a dangerous upset in the security environment.
9. (SBU) Elsewhere in the Balkans, NATO remains committed
to leaving no "unfinished business" in the region's
Euro-Atlantic integration. At their Bucharest meeting in
2008, Heads of State and Government invited Albania and
Croatia to join the Alliance, which they formally did last
April. Allies have also agreed that Macedonia would be
invited to join the Alliance as soon as it settles its
long-standing name dispute with Greece. Until then,
Macedonia will continue to participate in NATO's Membership
Action Plan (MAP), a program of advice, assistance and
practical support tailored to the needs of Partners wishing
to join the Alliance. Foreign Ministers decided in December
2009 that Montenegro will also join MAP, as will Bosnia and
Herzegovina once it achieves necessary progress in its reform
efforts. Accordingly, Bosnia and Herzegovina will be looking
USNATO 00000069 003 OF 003
to Foreign Ministers to again take up its request to join MAP
at their April meeting in Tallinn, although prospects are
dim. Serbia's view of NATO continues to be colored by NATO's
1999 air campaign. However, Belgrade's relations with the
Alliance are slowly beginning to warm, and Serbia now
participates in NATO's Partnership for Peace program and the
Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council.
-----------------
Strategic Concept
-----------------
10. (SBU) The world has changed since 1999, when NATO's
current Strategic Concept was agreed. We need a completely
new guiding document for NATO, not simply a "revised" version
of the 1999 Concept. The Group of Experts, led by former
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, has participated in a
series of seminars on 21st century security challenges, NATO
operations, and Partnerships. The final seminar, focused on
capabilities, will take place February 23 in Washington.
Following the seminar phase, the Experts will consult with
Allies and partners, before submitting a report to the
Secretary General on May 1. The new Strategic Concept should
cover both core Alliance principles (principally Article 5,
collective defense) as well as the challenges we face,
including NATO's relationship with Russia and new challenges
such as terrorism, WMD proliferation, failing states, missile
threats, regional crises, energy and cyber security.
11. (SBU) It is an exciting and critical time at NATO. My
team and I look forward to discussing these and other
issues with you during your visit.
HEFFERN