Cablegate: Ifp Leadership Battle Continues

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TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: IFP LEADERSHIP BATTLE CONTINUES

REF: A 09 DURBAN 50; B 09 DURBAN 100

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The redeployment of Inkatha Freedom Party
(IFP) National Chairperson Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi has deepened
fissures within the party. KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters claim
certain IFP leaders are attempting to separate her from her
constituency ahead of the party's elective conference. African
National Conference (ANC) officials have publicly invited
kaMagwaza-Msibi to join their party claiming that the IFP is not
women friendly. KaMagwaza-Msibi temporarily retreated from
public life but remains the most likely candidate to succeed IFP
president Mangosuthu Buthelezi. END SUMMARY.

FIGHT FOR POWER

2. (SBU) Rumors that IFP founder and president Prince
Mangosuthu Buthelezi might soon step down have created a
scramble for power within the party. The two most likely IFP
leaders to succeed Buthelezi are kaMagwaza-Msibi and IFP General
Secretary Musa Zondi. While these two leaders have stated
publicly that they would not stand against Buthelezi at the
IFP's elective conference in May, supporters of both leaders
have openly clashed and called for new leadership (Ref B).

3. (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi has been tipped by media and political
analysts as representing the best chance for the IFP to revive
its political prospects (Ref A). She is a forward-thinking
politician who enjoys the support of the IFP Youth Brigade, the
IFP Women's Brigade, and progressives within the party.
KaMagwaza-Msibi's successful run as mayor of Zululand, a major
KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) municipality, is a bright spot for a party
that has, for many, come to represent incompetent or incapable
public service. Zondi, on the other hand, is a more distant
leader but has the support of IFP traditionalists (Ref B).
KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters claim that Zondi's supporters are
behind attempts to harass kaMagwaza-Msibi into submission and
keep her from running for party president.

4. (SBU) As the succession contest has grown increasingly
public and rancorous, kaMagwaza-Msibi has avoided media events
and has stopped attending IFP meetings. An uncharacteristically
exasperated kaMagwaza-Msibi told Pol/Econ Assistant on January
26 that she `did not want to discuss her situation.' She did,
however, offer that she was under `a lot of party pressure.'
IFP Deputy National Spokesperson Thulasizwe Buthelezi (a known
Zondi supporter) told Pol/Econ Assistant on January 25 that
party leaders are growing concerned about kaMagwaza-Msibi's
recent behavior. They are even considering asking Prince
Buthelezi to speak with her to determine if she is well, he
added.

KAMAGWAZA-MSIBI TOLD TO MOVE UP, NOT OUT

5. (SBU) On January 31, the IFP National Council resolved to
redeploy kaMagwaza-Msibi from her mayoral position to the KZN
Legislature. Because kaMagwaza-Msibi must step down after her
current mayoral term ends in 2011, the IFP wants to move her now
in order to secure her service to the party beyond that time,
Zondi told local media of the national council's resolution.
KaMagwaza-Msibi's supporters, however, believe that the national
council's decision is an attempt to separate kaMagwaza-Msibi
from her constituency ahead of the elective conference. In
response to the redeployment, angered IFP members formed the
Friends of Zanele kaMagwaza-Msibi group (FOZ), which calls for
kaMagwaza-Msibi to be elected party president. Although she
has previously called for party members to desist from
campaigning for new leadership ahead of the IFP elective
conference (Ref B), kaMagwaza-Msibi has not denounced the latest
calls for her to be elected president. FOZ Spokesperson
Nhlanhla Khawula told Pol/Econ assistant that FOZ will support
kaMagwaza-Msibi `till the end' and that they stand against
leaders such as KZN IFP Chairperson Mtomuhle Khawula (who
happens to be his brother) who declare that the IFP will `never
be led by a woman.

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6. (SBU) In response to rumors that prominent IFP mayors and
councilors were planning to condemn publicly kaMagwaza-Msibi's
redeployment, IFP National Organizer Albert Mncwango (a known
Zondi supporter) released a press statement on January 28
threatening to dismiss from the party anyone who stood against
the IFP's resolutions.

ANC GLADLY FUELS FLAMES OF GENDER DISCONTENT

7. (SBU) Political rivals in the ANC capitalized on the IFP's
infighting and publicly invited kaMagwaza-Msibi to join the ANC.
`We like her in the ANC and we know how to take care of women,'
said Minister of Human Settlements Tokyo Sexwale at an ANC rally
on January 24. KaMagwaza-Msibi rejected in a letter to the
media the ANC's overture, but the invitation reinforces the
long-standing notion that the IFP is dominated by
traditionalists who do not want to be led by a woman. Although
IFP Parliamentarian Helen Makhubu also rejected this
characterization on behalf of female party members, National
Chairperson of the IFP Women's Brigade Thembi Nzuza (a known
supporter of kaMagwaza-Msibi) issued no such statements,
suggesting that there is merit to the issue of gender inequality
(and even harassment) within the party.

KAMAGWAZA-MSIBI IS GOING NOWHERE SOON

8. (SBU) The decision to redeploy kaMagwaza-Msibi may come to
naught, however, due to a technicality, according to Chris
Mlotshwa, a manager in the Office of the Speaker of the KZN
Legislature. After the IFP lost the 2009 general election to
the ANC in KZN, kaMagwaza-Msibi declined to take up her seat as
a KZN legislator, opting to remain mayor of Zululand, Mlotshwa
told Pol/Econ Officer and Assistant on February 10. As she is
no longer on the official list of legislators, kaMagwaza-Msibi
cannot be appointed to the KZN Legislature until the Independent
Electoral Commission (IEC) reviews the IFP's petition for
kaMagwaza-Msibi's reinstatement. The end result is that
kaMagwaza-Msibi will remain mayor of Zululand until the end of
May, Mlotshwa said, when the IEC will next consider such
petitions.

COMMENT

9. (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi will likely never leave the party she
joined as a teenager in 1975. Her recent withdrawal from the
public and from party meetings should not be seen as a sign of
weakness but rather an indication of her strong distaste for
public power plays. Also, she seems truly hurt that political
rivals within the party would portray her as anti-Buthelezi or
power hungry. Unless Buthelezi decides to step down at the IFP
elective conference in May, kaMagwaza-Msibi will likely (as she
did during the 2008 conference) declare her loyalty to the
Prince and the IFP, and fall in line with party directives. If
the IFP presidency does become vacant, kaMagwaza-Msibi will
respond to calls to run for president and will likely win - to
the chagrin of party traditionalists who never imagined or
wanted a woman at the helm of the IFP. If the traditionalists
do not revolt and kaMagwaza-Msibi can hold the party together,
the IFP might yet become a relevant political force in the new
South Africa.
DERDERIAN

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