Cablegate: Zanzibar: Union Ccm Supports "Inclusive" Government

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RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHDR #0153 0500544
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 190544Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9432
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEHJB/AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA 3200
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 0177
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RUEHMS/AMEMBASSY MUSCAT 0232
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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDS/USMISSION USAU ADDIS ABABA
RHMFISS/CDR USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA//J3
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MCC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS DAR ES SALAAM 000153

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

FOR AF/E JTREADWELL; INR/AA FEHERENRIECH
STATE PASS USAID
NSC FOR GAVIN

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR SOCI TZ
SUBJECT: ZANZIBAR: UNION CCM SUPPORTS "INCLUSIVE" GOVERNMENT

REF: DAR ES SALAAM 107

1. (U) SUMMARY. Tanzania ruling party CCM announced support for
"inclusive" but not "coalition" government in Zanzibar following the
February 14-15 meeting of its National Executive Committee (NEC).
This phrasing, which appears to support the constitutional changes
approved by the Zanzibar House of Representatives (reftel), was
prefigured in Ambassador Lenhardt's meetings with senior (mainland)
CCM officials in Dodoma February 2-3. Opposition CUF leaders in
Parliament were less sanguine about CCM's professed commitment to
inclusiveness. END SUMMARY.

2. (SBU) In a February 2 meeting at CCM Headquarters, CCM Deputy
Secretary-General (and Minister of Information) George Mkuchika
predicted that Ambassador Lenhardt would be the first U.S. envoy to
leave behind a "peaceful Zanzibar," where his predecessors had come
and gone as the conflict on the isles continued. CCM Publicity and
Propaganda Secretary (and Minister of Lands) John Chiligati
described the CCM position as pioneering inclusive government to end
the exclusion of the 49 percent of Zanzibari voters who support
opposition CUF. Chiligati acknowledged the conventional wisdom that
support for the two parties was evenly split in Zanzibar. He said
CCM would not accept the formation of a coalition government prior
to the scheduled October general elections; only afterwards should a
unity government be formed. He also insisted on the need for a
referendum, to allow the major parties to educate all Zanzibaris
(even those few who support other parties) on the benefits of
inclusive government. On February 15, Chiligati announced the
party's formal position following the NEC session. (Note: Mkuchika
and Chiligati are both old guard (and former military) CCM stalwarts
from the mainland.)

3. (SBU) Other mainland CCM leaders in Parliament, including Speaker
Samuel Sitta, repeated the party line on inclusive government and
the referendum. Sitta said there was general relief in CCM about
the reconciliation on the isles, though he cautioned that the old
guard of the Afro-Shirazi Party (the Zanzibar precursor to CCM)
still feared the return of the "Omanis" expelled during the 1964
revolution. (Comment: This is a refrain occasionally heard from
mainland CCM. Few if any CCM Zanzibar hardliners actually subscribe
to this view; instead, they resist the idea of surrendering the
power they won by force in 1964.)

CUF views from Parliament
-------------------------
4. (SBU) By contrast, Leader of the Parliamentary Opposition (and
CUF MP from Pemba) Hamad Rashid Mohamed was more pessimistic about
the political movements in Zanzibar. Mohamed criticized President
Kikwete for failing to follow through on his 2006 commitment to
bringing peace to Zanzibar. He observed that Zanzibar President
Karume has become a true believer in reconciliation, in part because
he fears prosecution by the next government for corruption. Other
CCM Zanzibar leaders, who expect to lose in a free election, were
fighting the agreement and arguing that a CUF government would break
the Union.

5. (SBU) Mohamed said Zanzibar needed an immediate government of
national unity to reform the election process (at least 2-3 months
needed to prepare a good voter register), reform the Zanzibar
Electoral Commission (ZEC), and change the mindset of the armed
forces, which are unaccustomed to CUF/CCM working together. There
would not be enough time to put together a clean, verified voter
roll for a referendum, not to mention the legal framework to run any
referendum well. He was also concerned about ZEC's management of
the Union elections in Zanzibar (i.e., for MPs like himself), which
would follow Zanzibar rather than Union practice. (Comment: One
effect of CUF's registration boycott, if maintained, would be to
threaten the re-election of its Union MPs from Zanzibar.)

LENHARDT

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