Cablegate: Zagreb Daily Report: December 29, 2009

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P 291431Z DEC 09
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9772
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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UNCLAS ZAGREB 000769

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON HR
SUBJECT: ZAGREB DAILY REPORT: DECEMBER 29, 2009

1.(U) OFFICIAL ELECTION RESULTS CONFIRMED; OSCE SAYS ELECTION
MET INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS: The State Electoral Commission
(DIP) on December 28 published official results of the recent
presidential vote, which show that 1,975,909 out of a total
of 4,495,233 eligible voters cast their ballots at 6,865
polling stations in Croatia and 55 other countries, which
puts the turnout at 43.96 percent. Since none of the
candidates won the majority of the votes, DIP established
that conditions had been met to hold a run-off election for
the President of the Republic on January 10, 2010.
Candidates competing in the runoff are Ivo Josipovic of the
Social Democratic Party (SDP) with 640,594 votes won in the
first election round, and second place finisher, independent
candidate Milan Bandic with 293,068 votes. The OSCE Limited
Election Observation Mission in Croatia concluded that the
first round of Croatia's presidential elections met
democratic standards overall, however, certain issues remain
to be addressed such as campaign finance, voter registers,
and media coverage of the elections. The Limited Election
Observation Mission will remain in Croatia to monitor the
run-off, and will compile a final report two months later
with recommendations for improvements to Croatia's electoral
system.

2.(U) JOSIPOVIC CAMPAIGN SHORING UP SUPPORT: SDP presidential
candidate Ivo Josipovic has already secured several key
endorsements that will bolster his chances in the runoff
election. Perhaps most importantly, incumbent, and
ever-popular President Stjepan Mesic hinted his support for
Josipovic, saying that, if elected, Josipovic would abide by
the Constitution and the law, while he criticized Milan
Bandic for lack of transparency of his campaign funding, his
advocacy of establishing a separate, Croat-majority entity in
neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, and his lack of knowledge
of English. Meanwhile, Darinko Kosor, President of the
Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS), said December 28 that
the HSLS is likely to support Josipovic in the January 10
presidential run-off. He indicated the party would make a
formal decision at their December 29 party meeting.
Similarly, Ivan Jakovic, President of the Istrian Democratic
Party (IDS) and the IDS presidential candidate, Damir Kajin
announced December 28 that they would recommend the IDS
support Josipovic in the run-off. Independent candidate, and
fourth place finisher, Nadan Vidosevic also threw his support
behind Josipovic. While the Croatian People's Party (HNS),
whose candidate Vesna Pusic finished fifth, is likely to
decide later this week its position on the run-off
candidates. Local media speculate that HNS will likely back
Josipovic.

3.(U) BANDIC CAMPAIGN FACING UPHILL BATTLE: Zagreb Mayor
Milan Bandic garnered only the support from independent
candidates Dragan Primorac and Boris Miksic. The
independent, maverick mayor of Split, Zeljko Kerum also
announced his endorsement of Bandic for president. However,
Bandic's chances in the second round received a blow when the
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) announced that it will not
support either candidate in the run-off. Prime Minister
Jadranka Kosor, who is also the HDZ President, said early
December 28 that the HDZ doesn't have a candidate whom we
could recommend in the second round vote to our electorate.
Most HDZ officials have indicated they would respect their
civic obligations and vote in the run-off, but none have thus
far offered even passive support to either campaign.

4.(U) NO LIGHT YET AT END OF THE ECONOMIC TUNNEL: Official
statistics for the third quarter of 2009 show GDP declined in
real terms by 5.7 percent, a slight improvement over the 6.7
and 6.3 percent declines of the first and second quarter,
respectively. Strong declines in imports, exports, personal
spending, and fixed capitol investment continue to be the
main factors behind Croatia's economic weakness. Barring a
surprise fourth quarter turnaround, Croatia's 2009 GDP will
be greater than 5 percent.
WALKER

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