Cablegate: Opposition Presidential Candidate Holds Solid Lead

VZCZCXRO9152
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHVB #0738/01 3511311
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 171311Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9743
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000738

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV HR
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE HOLDS SOLID LEAD
FOR DEC. 27 BALLOT; TIGHT FIGHT FOR SECOND

REF: A. ZAGREB 714
B. MEGES-WESTLEY 12/08/2009 EMAIL

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1. (U) SUMMARY: With less than two-weeks to go before the
first round vote in the presidential race, the most reliable
polling numbers suggest that Ivo Josipovic, candidate of the
main opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP), is certain to
make the second round runoff. (REF A) The race for the
second slot in the January 10 vote is up for grabs and any of
four candidates -- independents Milan Bandic, Nadan
Vidosevic, or Dragan Primorac, as well as the ruling Croatian
Democratic Union,s (HDZ) candidate Andrija Hebrang -- has a
chance to reach the second round. The campaign, meanwhile,
is turning negative, especially among Primorac, Vidosevic,
and Hebrang, who are all former HDZ colleagues. The
determining factor in which of the four candidates faces
Josipovic in the run-off could well be the Croatian Diaspora
vote. END SUMMARY

2. (U) Recent polls from Croatia's two most reliable polling
firms -- PULS and PromocijaPlus -- have been telling the same
story for the past several weeks. Averaging the firms'
combined ten polls from the past six weeks, Josipovic is
likely to receive about 27 percent of the domestic vote.
Bandic is at about 15 percent, with Vidosevic at 14 percent,
and Hebrang about 10 percent. Additionally, the number of
undecided voters is trending down and is likely less than 10
percent at this point. Primorac is the one candidate who has
shown a consistent upward trend in the polls and may do
better than his 7 percent average. One surprise in these
polls is that Bandic so far appears to have failed to gain
much traction with voters. Many commentators and diplomats
had assumed that Bandic's populist style and indefatigable
campaigning would earn him more momentum than has appeared in
the polls so far. Also somewhat surprising is Hebrang's
consistently poor showing. This may be a result of ex-HDZ
members Vidosevic and Primorac, and to a lesser extent
Bandic, eating into the traditional HDZ voter base. But
polls may also be underestimating Hebrang's support. He is
most popular in rural areas, where HDZ loyalty is the
strongest, and the HDZ has by far the best voter turn-out
machinery of any political organization in the country.

3. (U) None of the polls capture the Diaspora vote. Based
upon past presidential elections, Diaspora votes should add
about 80,000 to 100,000 total votes to the mix -- primarily
from Bosnia-Herzegovina. Almost none of these are likely to
go to the SDP's Josipovic. Depending on overall voter
turnout, the Diaspora vote could put 4 to 5 percentage points
up for grabs, primarily between Hebrang and Bandic.
Furthermore, the timing of the first round vote, December 27,
may make the Diaspora vote all the more important.
Traditionally, many more affluent Croatians -- typically
supportive of the SDP -- go abroad on ski vacations after
Christmas. At the same time, some Diaspora Croatians from
Western Europe, who are generally more supportive of the HDZ,
will return to Croatia for the holidays. In a race where
there is less than 1 percentage point difference between
Bandic and Vidosevic, the addition of a few extra percentage
points via the Diaspora vote could well propel Bandic or even
Hebrang over the top.

4. (SBU) As the presidential race enters the final stages,
the public may be getting bored with the cast of candidates.
It has been underway unofficially for nearly six months,
which is long by Croatian standards. A recent poll by
Transparency International found that less than 15 percent of
Croats polled believe that politicians of any stripe make
decisions based on the best interest of the country, while
nearly half felt politicians only make decisions that are
best for themselves.

5. (SBU) Numerous commentaries have noted in recent weeks
that the campaign has gone from dull to dull and negative.
Policy issues have been largely absent, despite an effort,
particularly by Josipovic to stress the need for a greater
focus in Croatia on anti-corruption efforts. Instead, almost
all of the debate has been about personality and character
issues. In an early December TV debate, Vidosevic alleged
that Primorac, a former Minister of Education, is rumored to
have beaten his wife and past girlfriends. Primorac has
countered with accusations of slander and alleged that
Vidosevic -- who is quite wealthy -- is a crook who should be
investigated and convicted of embezzlement. In the same
debate Hebrang was combative and aggressive, accusing both
Primorac and Vidosevic of an absence of patriotism and a
failure to show real courage during the 1990s war. Arguably,
the only candidate to come out well from the debate was
Bandic, who did not participate and was thereby able to avoid
the mud slinging. Another national TV debate will be on

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December 22, and will give the top candidates one last
opportunity to sway undecided voters before they go to the
polls.
FOLEY

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