Cablegate: Seoul - Press Bulletin; December 3, 2009

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ECON KPAO KS US
SUBJECT: SEOUL - PRESS BULLETIN; December 3, 2009

TOP HEADLINES
-------------

Chosun Ilbo
President Lee Instructs Officials Not to Yield to Rail Strikers'
Demands and to Increase Alternative Workers
Capable of Running Trains

JoongAng Ilbo
Child Sex Offenders May Face Up to 50 Years in Prison

Dong-a Ilbo
Obama's "Afghan Gamble"

Hankook Ilbo, All TVs
Damage Mounts as Railway Strike Continues

Hankyoreh Shinmun
President Lee's "Deviant View" of Labor Unions; He Denies Labor
Unions' Right to Collective Action Guaranteed
by Constitution

Segye Ilbo
Fair Trade Commission Fines Six LPG Providers
668.9 Billion Won for Price-Fixing,
the Largest Fine Ever Imposed Domestically

Seoul Shinmun
"Delicate Change" on Sejong City; Prime Minister Says,
"We are Open to All Possibilities"

DOMESTIC DEVELOPMENTS
---------------------

Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan, in a Dec. 2 forum, said that Seoul
will not accept the peace treaty that North Korea is seeking solely
with the U.S. to replace the armistice that ended the Korean War.
(JoongAng)

The ROKG and the ruling Grand National Party (GNP) agreed yesterday
to seek to send around 320 Korean troops to Afghanistan next July
for a two-and-a-half-year mission. (JoongAng, Dong-a, Hankook,
Segye, Seoul)

INTERNATIONAL NEWS
------------------

President Barack Obama, in a Dec. 1 major speech, announced that he
would send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in coming
months and start bringing American forces home in July 2011. (All)

MEDIA ANALYSIS
--------------

-President Obama's speech on Afghanistan
-----------------------------------------
President Obama's speech on Afghanistan continued to capture the
attention of the ROK media. The media offered mostly
straightforward reporting on President Obama's decision to send an
additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan in coming months and to
start bringing American forces home in July 2011.

Coverage highlighted the President's statements: "I believe this
argument (Afghanistan is another Vietnam) depends on a false reading
of history. Unlike Vietnam, we are joined by a broad coalition of
43 nations that recognizes the legitimacy of our action;" and "It
must be clear that Afghans will have to take responsibility for
their security, and that America has no interest in fighting an
endless war in Afghanistan."

SEOUL 00001905 002 OF 004

Newspapers carried the following headlines: "Obama's Gamble:
'Concluding Unpopular War in 18 Months'" (conservative Chosun Ilbo);
"Obama's 'Afghan Gamble;' Obama Intends to End War One and a Half
Years before Next Presidential Election... He Seems Aiming to Use
Afghan Achievement for His Reelection" (conservative Dong-a Ilbo);
and "Obama Plans Afghan Pullout in July 2011" (moderate Hankook
Ilbo, left-leaning Hankyoreh Shinmun, conservative Segye Ilbo,
moderate Seoul Shinmun)

Dong-a Ilbo editorialized: "Troop pullout without mopping up Taliban
and al-Qaida remnants would endanger world peace and U.S. security.
In that sense, it is natural that President Obama has decided to
send additional troops to Afghanistan. ... During last month's
visit to Seoul, President Obama hinted at the possibility that some
USFK troops may be redeployed to Afghanistan. In order to prevent
this from happening, creating a security vacuum, it is important for
the ROK to provide assistance to Afghanistan."

(Ed. Note: In his Remarks to the Troops at Osan Air Base, Korea on
November 19, 2009, the President thanked the troops for their
individual personal sacrifices and service and said: "Many of you
served in Iraq. ... Others among you served in Afghanistan. ...
Others among you will deploy yet again. " (Source:
Whitehouse.gov.) There was no reference about pulling USFK troops
off the Korean peninsula.)

Hankook Ilbo editorialized: "The deployment of additional troops,
which will bring the total number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan to
over 100,000, can be seen as a dangerous gambit. If (this move)
does not prevent the Taliban's expansion of power, the U.S. will
lose justification for the war. However, the (U.S.) public is
opposed to the troop increase. President Obama laid out a timeline
for a troop pullout, but it is doubtful that the tide of war will
turn in favor of the U.S. and its allies in just one and a half
years. ... Observers say that the additional troop deployment has
just turned 'Bush's war' into 'Obama's war.'"

An editorial in left-leaning Kyunghyang Shinmun argued: "We worry
that this U.S. troop increase will result in the U.S. sinking deeper
into the 'Afghan quagmire.' ... The U.S. has achieved little for
eight years since it started the war shortly after the 9/11 terror
attacks. ... The war has only inflicted huge losses without
achieving Afghanistan's democratization or punishing (the Taliban.)
... President Obama also requested additional contributions from
U.S. allies, including NATO countries, saying that the Afghan war is
an international issue. However, this will not be easy. The
'Obama's war' is highly likely to become the U.S.'s lonely war."

-N. Korea
---------
Right-of-center JoongAng Ilbo quoted Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan
as saying in a Dec. 2 forum in Seoul that the ROKG will not accept
the peace treaty that North Korea is seeking solely with the U.S. to
replace the armistice that ended the Korean War. He was further
quoted: "Our basic position is that any discussion on a peace deal
must be centered on the two Koreas, with the U.S. and China also
involved. ... North Korea talking about a peace deal seems intended
to buy time and divert attention while it continues to develop
nuclear weapons."

OPINIONS/EDITORIALS
-------------------

OBAMA TAKES GAMBLE WITH AFGHAN STRATEGY
(Hankook Ilbo, December 3, 2009, Page 39)

U.S. President Obama announced a plan to send additional troops to
Afghanistan to stabilize the situation there. The deployment of
additional troops, which will bring the total number of U.S. troops
in Afghanistan to over 100,000, can be seen as a dangerous gambit.
If (this move) does not prevent the Taliban's expansion of power,
the U.S. will lose justification for the war. However, the (U.S.)

SEOUL 00001905 003 OF 004

public is opposed to the troop increase. President Obama laid out a
timeline for a troop pullout, but it is doubtful that the tide of
the war will turn in favor of the U.S. and its allies in just one
and a half years.

In his speech, President Obama said, "We must reverse the Taliban's
momentum and deny it the ability to overthrow the government."
Obama noted that his new Afghan strategy is to secure key population
centers and partner with Afghan security forces. However, if
history is any guide, it will be very hard for foreign forces to
gain control of Afghanistan. Observers say that the additional
troop deployment has just turned "Bush's war" into "Obama's war."

The ROKG, which is ready to dispatch its troops to Afghanistan,
should look closely at the developments of the war and any changes
in the situation (in Afghanistan) that may occur due to the U.S.'s
new Afghan strategy.

WE CANNOT HAND AFGHANISTAN OVER TO TERRORISTS
(Dong-a Ilbo, December 3, 2009, Page 39)

U.S. President Barack Obama said on December 1 that he had decided
to "send an additional 30,000 U.S. troops to Afghanistan" and to
"begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of
2011." In order to directly deliver his strong determination to win
the war in Afghanistan to the people, President Obama announced the
decision at his first address to the nation since his inauguration.
He even "had his retreat cut off" by advancing a timeline for the
troop pullout to a date much earlier than January of 2013, when his
term in office expires.

The war in Afghanistan started when the U.S. military launched an
air attack against Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, to punish
al-Qaida and the Taliban, which protects al-Qaida, for the September
11 terrorist attacks. A U.S. troop pullout without mopping up
Taliban and al-Qaida remnants would endanger world peace and U.S.
security. In that sense, it is natural that President Obama has
decided to send additional troops to Afghanistan.

To Afghan President Hamid Karzai, President Obama stressed, "The
days of providing a blank check are over." He warned that the U.S.
will stop providing largesse to an inefficient and corrupt Afghan
government. In order to establish peace in the war-torn country,
the Karzai Administration must first shape up.

Despite Washington's additional troop dispatch decision, the
situation in Afghanistan is not getting better. The Taliban gave up
an all-out attack and is harassing the U.S. and allied forces with
guerilla warfare. The capital Kabul is so dangerous that, when ROK
lawmakers visited the city as Presidential envoys last month, they
were not able to stay at a hotel there. The Afghan people are tired
of the prolonged war. In order to win a victory over the Taliban,
both military operations against the militant group and civilian
reconstruction operations should be mobilized. It is necessary to
send combat troops at the same time that assistance in the
reconstruction of Afghanistan and training of local self-defense
forces is provided.

There are many areas in which our Provincial Reconstruction Team
(PRT) can make contributions. In particular, the ROK's plan to
train local police is desperately needed to ensure that Afghanistan
stands on its own feet. The deployment of additional 30,000 troops
is a heavy burden for the U.S. During last month's visit to Seoul,
President Obama hinted at the possibility that some USFK troops may
be redeployed to Afghanistan. In order to prevent this from
happening, creating a security vacuum, it is important for the ROK
to provide assistance to Afghanistan. (Ed. Note: In his Remarks to
the Troops at Osan Air Base, Korea on November 19, 2009, the
President thanked the troops for their individual personal
sacrifices and service and said: "Many of you served in Iraq. ...
Others among you served in Afghanistan. ... Others among you will
deploy yet again. " (Source: whitehouse.gov.) There was no
reference about pulling USFK troops off the Korean peninsula.)

SEOUL 00001905 004 OF 004

U.S. SINKING DEEPER INTO AFGHAN QUAGMIRE
(Kyunghyang Shinmun, December 3, Page 31)

In his first speech to the U.S. public on his plan for Afghanistan
on December 1, President Obama announced that the U.S. will send an
additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The USG had been deeply
considering whether to dispatch additional troops after Afghanistan
Commander General Stanley McChrystal submitted a report requesting
additional troop deployment in September. Still mindful that a
considerable number of Americans are opposed to the U.S.'s increased
military presence, Obama set a specific timeline, saying "After 18
months, our troops will begin to come home." It seems that he wants
to quell concerns that Afghanistan may become a second Vietnam.

However, the prospects (that the troops will return on time) are
very dim since it is unlikely that this timeline can be easily
realized as President Obama and the U.S. public hope. We worry that
this U.S. troop increase will result in the U.S. sinking deeper into
the 'Afghan quagmire.' There are clear reasons that justify this
concern. We need to ask two questions. What has the U.S. gained
from this war? Why has the U.S. decided to increase its troop
levels in Afghanistan?

The U.S. has achieved little for eight years since it started the
war shortly after the 9/11 terror attacks. Osama Bin Laden is still
alive. The Taliban was not routed from power but has strengthened
its hold. Has Afghanistan achieved democracy? The answer is no.
It seems that the U.S. is providing support to corrupt President
Karzai. Over the duration of the war so far, the war has cost 1,532
lives of allies including 929 U.S. soldiers. The war has only
inflicted huge losses without achieving Afghanistan's
democratization or punishing (the Taliban.) Obama reminded us of
the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks, stressing that the U.S.
should reverse the tide of the war and that additional troop
deployment is aimed at transferring responsibility to the Afghans.
However, there is a slim chance that this will be realized. The
Soviet Union collapsed after it lost the 10-year Afghan war.

President Obama also requested additional contributions from U.S.
allies, including NATO countries, saying that the Afghan war is an
international issue. However, this will not be easy. France made
it clear that it will not increase its troop levels and Germany has
expressed reluctance to dispatch additional troops. Immediately
after the 9/11 terror attacks, people in the world proclaimed, "We
are all Americans," but now their attitude has changed drastically.
'Obama's war' is highly likely to become the U.S.'s lonely war.

STEPHENS

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