Cablegate: Media Analysis of Election Results: Bad Outweighs

VZCZCXYZ0032
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTO #1406/01 3641339
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 301339Z DEC 09
FM AMEMBASSY MAPUTO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1132
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0585
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS MAPUTO 001406

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI MZ
SUBJECT: MEDIA ANALYSIS OF ELECTION RESULTS: BAD OUTWEIGHS
GOOD

1. (SBU) SUMMARY: In the wake of GRM's Constitutional Court
validation on December 28 of the results of the October
national elections, media outlets have analyzed the campaign
season, suggesting that the "good" aspects of the elections
were outweighed by the "bad" and "ugly." On one hand, the
new Democratic Movement of Mozambique's (MDM) performance in
the presidential race indicates that the new party could
eventually provide an effective opposition to the ruling
Mozambique Liberation Front's (Frelimo) longstanding
political dominance, promoting multi-party democracy.
However, party exclusions from the legislative polls, unrest
during the campaign period, and ballot tampering undermined
election legitimacy. END SUMMARY.

------------------------------------
The Good ) New Party Showing Promise
------------------------------------

2. (U) MDM candidate Daviz Simango won 8.59% of the votes in
the presidential race ) a strong showing considering that
Simango only launched the party on March 6, and faced a
generally hostile campaign environment. Miguel de Brito,
Mozambique Country Director for the Electoral Institute for
Southern Africa, a group that promotes democracy in Africa,
told the New York Times on October 30 that Simango's
performance at the polls was a "good start" for a newcomer
and that the results showed that MDM already had "some base"
of support.

--------------------------------------------- ---
The Good ) Election Day Process Functional, Calm
--------------------------------------------- ---

3. (U) Polling stations apparently had enough materials and
staffing for voters. There were no reports of insufficient
or missing supplies that kept citizens from casting their
ballots, which is a significant logistical accomplishment
considering that there were over 12,000 polling stations for
a registered electorate of over 9.8 million people and that
many polling stations were only accessible by 4-wheel-drive
vehicles or helicopter, according to the Electoral
Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE). However, CIP
reported that there were proportionately fewer polling
stations in opposition strongholds such as Zambezia and
Nampula, meaning voters had to walk longer distances in those
provinces to vote. There were no missing results sheets, an
improvement from the 2004 election when over 1,000 polling
station result sheets went missing, according to
government-owned news agency AIM. Felisberto Naife, general
director of the STAE, told AIM that as of November 8, nearly
97 per cent of the result sheets had been processed.

4. (U) Despite numerous incidents of unrest during the
campaign, there was no significant reported violence on
Election Day itself. The European Union observers called the
elections "well-managed" and "calm," according to Paris-based
news agency AFP.

----------------------------------
The Bad ) More Pre-Election Unrest
----------------------------------

5. (U) Mozambican media commented on the high level of
tension compared with previous elections, including incidents
of limited violence between supporters of Frelimo, Renamo,
and the MDM. Political analysts and media speculated that
the MDM's emergence threatened Frelimo and Renamo dominance
and was the main cause of increased election-related unrest
among all parties. For example, Lusa and the Mozambique
Peace Process Bulletin (PPB) -- a reliable election-focused
newsletter from the Association of European Parliamentarians
for Africa and the Center for Public Integrity ) routinely
reported incidents of unrest during the 45-day campaign
period, including sporadic violence among supporters of the
main political parties, vandalism at party offices, damage to
campaign materials, and moves to frustrate campaign parades
and rallies. Although some unrest occurred during past
elections, the PPB reported that the 1994, 1999, and 2004
elections had been generally "trouble free" and peaceful.

6. (U) Professors from Maputo's Eduardo Mondlane University
blamed the unprecedented level of unrest on the MDM's
emergence, according to an October 4 Lusa report. The
respected Africa Monitor newsletter reported that Frelimo and
Renamo see MDM as a "potential threat" to their respective
"electoral aspirations," possibly impacting both parties'
"status quo of domination."

--------------------------------------------- --
The Bad ) Ballot Box Stuffing, Ballot Tampering
--------------------------------------------- --

7. (U) Open sources cited various reports of ballot box
stuffing ) almost exclusively to Frelimo's benefit.
Improbably high voter turnouts in several districts show that
ballot box stuffing very likely took place. For example,
cities including Chicualacula, Massagena, and Changara all
had voter turnouts exceeding 90% and 98% of all votes in
those cities went to Guebuza. In Ilha de Mozambique a
teacher was arrested for reportedly trying to stuff ballots
into a box in Jembesse, Lumbo. According to PPB, Renamo held
a press conference to display the already-filled-out ballots,
which all voted for Frelimo. At least 10% of the votes cast
in the districts of Sofala, Nampula, Cabo Delgado, Zambezia
were void ) indicating a high likelihood of ballot tampering
compared to the overall average of 4.3% for this election and
the overall average of 3.9% in 2004. In most cases, invalid
votes had more than one candidate selected on a single
ballot, as if trying to cast two votes for two different
candidates on the same ballot, according to the PPB.

--------------------------------------------- -------
The Ugly - Party Exclusion From Legislative Election
--------------------------------------------- -------

8. (U) Several commentators said the National Elections
Commission's (CNE) ruling to exclude 14 parties--including
MDM--from contesting the provincial polls could undermine the
election's legitimacy. The Constitutional Council (CC), the
highest court in the country, unanimously upheld the CNE's
decision to exclude the parties from the parliamentary
elections, saying that the parties had "contravened
obligatory legal clauses." The Portuguese news agency Lusa
reported that Mozambican political analyst Jose Jaime Macuane
called the CNE's decision illegal and questioned the CNE's
partiality. Xavier de Figueiredo, a Lusophone Africa expert
and editor of the Africa Monitor, said in his September 24
and September 10 newsletters that the "relaxed compliance
with the Law on Elections" together with the decision to
"reject" the parties has led to a "climate of tension" that
has permeated the election campaign. Independent legal
consultants opined that the CNE used "excessive zeal" in
applying the law, and Mozambican jurist Custodio Duma said
that it would be difficult to call the elections "free and
fair," according to Lusa on October 1. A September 9 Savana
editorial asserted that the credibility of the elections
would be difficult to establish because the CNE is "justly or
unjustly" seen to be at Frelimo's service. On September 2,
ambassadors from donor countries said that the candidate
approval process was arbitrary and lacked transparency,
according to the French press agency AFP.

-------
COMMENT
-------

9. (SBU) Some good aspects of the elections process indicate
that there is still hope for democracy in Mozambique. Based
on its performance at the polls, MDM could become an
opposition party strong enough to counter Frelimo in a way
that Renamo, at least under its current leader Afonso
Dhlakama, has not been able to do. Unfortunately, the bad
and the ugly--party exclusions and pre-election
unrest--blighted the elections and suggest that the ruling
Frelimo party may yet be unwilling to let multi-party
democracy flourish.
ROTH

© Scoop Media