Cablegate: Prospects for Fanmi Lavalas in the 2010 Elections

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ASEC KINR HA
SUBJECT: PROSPECTS FOR FANMI LAVALAS IN THE 2010 ELECTIONS

REF: 04 PORT AU PRINCE 538

Classified By: Ambassador Kenneth Merten for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

1. (C) SUMMARY: The two main factions of Fanmi Lavalas, the
political party of ousted former president Jean-Bertrand
Aristide, are collaborating to mitigate the risk of their
exclusion from legislative and presidential elections in
2010. Although a united Lavalas would be the largest party
in Haiti, their differences are many and both factions are
short of money. In addition, President Preval continues to
entice many influential FL members into his political
movement, further weakening FL as an opposition party.
Despite its popular appeal, FL is unlikely to be a viable
contending force, unless its leaders manage to present a
united front. This cable also provides biographical data on
key members of Fanmi Lavalas who will play a role in any
unification effort. END SUMMARY.

One Party, Two ''Families''
---------------------------

2. (C) Fanmi Lavalas (FL) has been divided for some time into
a faction loyal to Aristide that remains in contact with him,
and a second faction of former and current Lavalas officials
who hope to amend the party's charter and ease an
increasingly irrelevant Aristide out of the leadership role.
The Aristide loyalists, headed by Maryse Narcisse, enjoy the
support of most grassroots activists, but Yvon Neptune (a
former Prime Minister), Yves Cristalin, and other moderates
are bolstered by international attention and a complicated
relationship with President Rene Preval, himself a former
Aristide ally. Several Lavalas activists and elected
officials have tried, with varying degrees of success, to
remain above the fray.

3. (C) The Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) used this
division to exclude FL from the Senatorial elections in 2009.
The two factions presented two contradictory lists of
candidates, making it easy for the CEP to eliminate all FL
candidates with the tacit approval (if not at the request) of
President Preval. The division, combined with a lack of
financial resources, also slowly weakened FL's popular appeal
and its ability to rally people in the streets.

4. (C) Preval has managed to entice several Fanmi Lavalas
figures into his ''fold.'' Leslie Voltaire and Yves
Cristalin are both advisors to Preval (the latter has been
named Minister of Social Affairs in the government of
Jean-Max Bellerive). Lavalas Senators Francky Exius and Yvon
Buissereth aligned themselves with Preval's LESPWA majority
in the Senate to remove Prime Minister Michele Pierre Louis.

Talking Again?
--------------

5. (C) With upcoming legislative and presidential elections
in 2010, the two main factions seem determined to avoid being
excluded once again. They are engaged in talks with the
purpose of presenting one common list of candidates. There
is even talk of a FL National Congress in December, to
formalize and unify the FL structure. However, Preval is
unlikely to want a strong opposition FL presence in the
elections and is creating a broad political movement
(septel), into which he is enticing influential opposition
and regional leaders, including FL members. FL members on
both sides complain that they are in dire need of financial
support, as Aristide does not seem to be funneling money to
the party. As a result, the promise of access to resources
and power is likely to convert many FL members to Preval's
movement, thus further eroding FL's position as an opposition
party. Preval,s ability to reach out to Cristalin,
Voltaire, Exius and Buissereth (as well as key leaders in
opposition parties like OPL and FUSION) testifies to his
influence. Nevertheless, FL's popular base, even if
mitigated, makes it the only viable counter-force to Preval,
should its leaders manage to reunite into a common front.

6. (U) The remainder of this cable provides biographical
information on certain key members of Fanmi Lavalas.

Aristide Loyalists
------------------

7. (C) The Executive Committee purports to manage the affairs
of Fanmi Lavalas in Aristide's absence. The committee's
members call for the immediate return of Aristide, who
remains the party's ''National Representative,'' but say he
wants security guarantees before leaving South Africa. They
are closely allied with a number of militants and ''popular
organization'' leaders, including Rene Civil. The Executive
Committee was not constituted in accordance with the party's
charter, which foresees a complicated series of regional
elections in local FL committees that culminate in the
election of delegates to the Executive Committee, but the
committee is nonetheless widely believed to operate on
Aristide's behalf. The committee often uses the facilities
of the Aristide Foundation to organize meetings and protests.

8. (C) Maryse Narcisse, ''Coordinator'' of the FL Executive
Committee and self-described spokeswoman of Jean-Bertrand
Aristide, was formerly his private secretary. She claims to
have made four trips to see Aristide since 2004, according to
a late-2008 MINUSTAH report. Narcisse was kidnapped for
ransom and released in late 2007, an act she implies was
somehow directed by the National Palace. A doctor by
training, she was once the Director General of the Ministry
of Health and also was assigned to Haiti's Mission to the
United Nations, according to Lavalas's website. Narcisse
lived in New York for an unknown period of time and may be a
U.S. legal permanent resident. She speaks English but
prefers French.

9. (C) Rene Civil, formally the head of the ''Mobilization
Committee'' of Narcisse's branch of the party, is perhaps the
party's best-known activist. Leader of the "Youth Popular
Power" (JPP) organization, he is invariably behind the
marches commemorating Aristide's birthday, his first
election, the ''coup d'etat'' of 2004, and the anniversary of
the party's founding.

10. (C) Jacques Methalier, Executive Committee member and
former departmental official during Aristide's second term as
president, has been accused of involvement in political
violence in the past. He was Lavalas's Senate candidate in
the South department for the April 2009 elections, but
Lavalas candidates were excluded from those elections by the
Provisional Electoral Council.

11. (C) Renan Armstrong Charlot, a doctor by training, is the
newest addition to the Executive Committee. Young and
energetic, he is responsible for the steady stream of press
releases that issue from the Executive Committee.

12. (C) Lionel Etienne, Executive Committee member, is a
former member of the Chamber of Deputies.

13. (C) The Aristide Foundation for Democracy was reportedly
founded in 1995 at the conclusion of President Aristide's
first term in office, but its activities were dramatically
curtailed when Aristide departed the country. Two reports by
the Interim Government's Central Financial Intelligence Unit
(UCREF) in 2005 found serious irregularities in the
Foundation's books that it concluded were signs of
significant corruption. The Foundation is regularly used to
house political activities and launch demonstrations
organized by the Executive Committee. Toussaint Hilaire is
the foundation's director. In January 2009, Hilaire
announced that the Aristide Foundation's university, also
located in Tabarre, would offer Spanish language courses to
prepare students to take courses full-time at the university
with Cuban instructors. The Haitian State University (UEH)
rector still disputes the Foundation's claim to the
university on the grounds that it was built with public funds.

''Moderates''
-------------

14. (C) Although the moderates refrain from publicly criticizing Aristide, their distaste for the former president -- and desire to replace him -- might be the worst-kept secret in Haiti. With international interlocutors, they denounce Narcisse's followers as a bunch of ''bandits and thugs.'' Their efforts to amend the party's charter and name a new National Representative have been hampered by a lack of strategic planning and grassroots backing. They established a ''Facilitation Group'' and then an interim committee (''l'Equipe Responsable'') to attempt to consolidate support. Cristalin, Coffy, and Francisque are the main organizers in this faction.

15. (C) Yvon Neptune, former prime minister under Aristide,
is leader of the moderate faction but tries to maintain a
certain distance from its activities for tactical reasons.
He is widely distrusted (or worse) by Aristide loyalists for
his alleged complicity in Aristide's departure. He was
detained for some time by the Interim Government in 2004.
Neptune was widely believed to be considering running as a
2011 presidential candidate. He seems to lack popular
support and has indicated to embassy contacts that he is not
interested in running.

16. (C) Yves Cristalin, a leader of the Equipe Responsable
and former president of the Chamber of Deputies, was named a
counselor to President Preval in June 2009. He is an
economist by training and was Preval's point man on the
controversial minimum wage dispute. Cristalin is a founding
member of FL, but is driven by personal ambitions. He is
reported to be cozying up to Preval's political movement, and
is Jean-Max Bellerive's pick for Minister of Social Affairs
in the new government.

17. (C) Deputy Jonas Coffy, a former advisor to Yvon Neptune
when the latter was prime minister, is a senior official at
the private National Diplomatic and Consular Academy since
2004. Coffy was born in Petit Goave on August 19, 1969.

18. (C) Stephen Francisque, a former secretary for state for
literacy before Aristide's departure, has also joined the
moderates, although he is more active behind the scenes than
publicly.

19. (C) Annette Auguste, usually called ''So Ann'' (Sister
Anne), is an Executive Committee member and a well known
militant with a wide following. She publicly broke with the
rest of Executive Committee in October 2008, but occasionally
appears at rallies organized by the Committee to celebrate
important Lavalas anniversaries. She lived in New York for
an extended period (starting in 1968), and returned with
Aristide in 1994. She and her husband occasionally appear at
events sponsored by Lavalas moderates.

20. (C) Jocelerme Privert, former Interior Minister until
Aristide's departure in 2004, is suspected of involvement in
political violence and suppressing anti-Aristide protests
during that period (reftel). He attempted to run for Senate
as an independent with the support of moderates, but his
candidacy was rejected by the electoral authorities on
technical grounds (his certification attesting to his
responsible management of public funds - required for former
officials who seek elected office -- was declared invalid).

21. (C) Angelot Bell, former Director General of the Ministry
of Interior during Aristide's second term, was credibly
accused of arming chimeres and sponsoring other political
violence before Aristide's departure (reftel). He attempted
to run for Senate in April 2009 with the moderates' support,
although he has not otherwise taken a visible role in the
moderates ongoing dispute with Aristide loyalists.

Assorted Elected Officials
--------------------------

22. (C) Senator Rudy Heriveaux, who registered Lavalas for
the elections in 2006, sometimes claims to represent the
party on that basis, despite his lack of formal authority or
grassroots support. He is a constant foil to Preval, who
made him various promises in exchange for Heriveaux's support
of Prime Minister Michele Pierre-Louis's confirmation in 2008
but never delivered. He aligned himself with Narcisse when

the latter registered Fanmi Lavalas for the 2009 elections,
but later publicly doubted the authenticity of Narcisse's
supposed mandate from Aristide to lead the party. He played
an active role in countering LESPWA's move to remove
Pierre-Louis in the Senate, engaging in the attempted Haitian
version of a filibuster by dragging on the interpellation
session for more than 10 hours.

23. (C) Deputy Sorel Francois, ally of Heriveaux, is more
sympathetic to Narcisse than Cristalin and quite
knowledgeable regarding Lavalas affiliated ''popular
organizations'' and planned protests. He attended community
college and worked in Philadelphia, and frequently travels to
the United States. He was born in 1969 and speaks excellent
English.

24. (SBU) Senator Yvon Buissereth frequently aligns himself
with LESPWA in the Senate but occasionally joins the
moderates in their disputes with Aristide loyalists. He was
elected as Questeur (equivalent to treasurer) in the Senate
in September 2009, and was one of the Senators to have
instigated the interpellation and removal of Pierre Louis.

Lavalas Activists in Other Political Parties
--------------------------------------------

25. (C) Franky Exius, a former Lavalas deputy and
unsuccessful Senate candidate, again ran for Senate in April
2009 under the banner of Lespwa. He sought the FL nomination
for Senate, but his candidacy was rejected by Narcisse, he
says. He won the seat with a very small margin, beating the
UCCADHE candidate Laguerre. Then CEP Vice-President Rodol
Pierre, believed to be at the head of UCCADHE, denounced
fraud in the South. Exius' win is one of the two contested
departmental elections in the 2009 Senatorial race. Despite
his choice to distance himself from the Fanmi Lavalas
organization, he seems to genuinely want Aristide to return.
He is divorced and formerly worked in the Ministry of
Planning.

26. (C) Moise Jean-Charles, a Lavalas militant, is reportedly
counselor to President Preval. He won the Senate seat in the
North in the 2009 Senatorial race. He was allegedly at the
head of a group of Lavalas partisans that opened fire on
anti-Aristide protests in Cap Haitien in 2003, and he is
rumored to have participated in other political violence as
well, including involvement in the murder of the cousin of a
Deputy in the North.

27. (C) John Joel Joseph is a Lavalas-affiliated, Cite-Soleil
based activist who ran for Senate and won in 2009 under the
Lespwa banner. Reportedly close to President Preval, Joseph
faced persistent accusations that his campaign unfairly
benefitted from state resources and funding. His detractors
paint him as a semiliterate thug with no real public policy
interests or background, and he is credibly believed to have
links to kidnappings.

28. (C) Eric Jean-Jacques, former president of the Chamber of
Deputies (2006-2009). He was elected in 2006 under the
Lespwa banner but relations with Preval had deteriorated by
late 2008. Jean-Jacques unsuccessfully sought the Lavalas
nomination in the West Department for the 2009 Senate
elections, according to a MINUSTAH report. He is developing
a new political party (named REMAMBRE), drawing from the
ranks of Lavalas sympathizers including Leslie Voltaire
(current advisor to President Preval). Jean-Jacques owns a
large distillery and speaks excellent English. He sought
medical care in Cuba in late 2007, reportedly for prostate
cancer.

29. (C) Jean Henry Ceant is Aristide's notary and personal friend. He is rumored to be a Presidential candidate, and leads a new political movement (AIMER HAITI) that also draws on the ranks of Lavalas symphathizers and former officials under Aristide (many now in the diaspora). Ceant was an early supporter of Aristide, and is thought to have helped Aristide in meeting property ownership requirements so he could run for President. Ceant's brother, Harry Ceant, was at the head of CONATEL (Haiti's equivalent of the Federal Communications Commission) under Aristide. Ceant's wealth (by Haitian standards), combined with his ties to Aristide, raises suspicions about his past dealings.
MERTEN

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