Cablegate: Scenesetter for Your Visit to Oslo

VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNY #0739/01 3341525
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
O 301525Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY OSLO
TO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 OSLO 000739

SIPDIS

FROM AMBASSADOR WHITE FOR THE PRESIDENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2019
TAGS: OVIP PGOV PREL ECON ETRD SENV MOPS NO
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR YOUR VISIT TO OSLO

OSLO 00000739 001.2 OF 003

Classified By: Ambassador Barry B. White for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)

1. (S) Mr. President, your visit to Oslo to accept the
Nobel Peace Prize is of great significance to the Norwegians.
Norway is a geographically mid-sized country with a
population on par with Colorado, and, according to the IMF, a
2009 GDP per capita just below 100,000 USD - surpassed in the
world only by Qatar and Luxembourg, which have much smaller
populations. Historically, Norway was one of the poorest
countries in Europe, but the discovery of North Sea oil in
the late sixties provided an enormous economic boost and a
mini-trust fund for all Norwegian citizens. Ranked in 2009
as the best place in the world to live by the UN Development
Program Human Development Index, Norwegians view themselves
as inherently egalitarian, and the oil wealth is shared
throughout society through a generous welfare program. Much
of the vast wealth has been
reserved in an enormous Government Pension Fund for future
generations, currently worth over USD 450 billion. Norway's
government prides itself on its international engagement: it
expends over 1% of GDP for development assistance and strives
to maintain its image as a facilitator of peace negotiations.
Norway also takes in several thousand refugees each year;
although a homogenous society just over two decades ago, 26%
of Oslo's population today comes from recent immigrants,
primarily from Poland, Pakistan, Sweden, Iraq, and Somalia.

2. (S) Norway's King, His Majesty King Harald V, is cordial
and friendly. When I presented my credentials in November,
he reminisced about the time he spent at the White House with
President Roosevelt during World War II. His fondness for
the United States is echoed throughout Norway's older
generations, given the close ties created through extensive
immigration from Norway to the U.S. in the 19th and 20th
centuries, and also due to U.S. assistance to Norway
throughout the Cold War. You personally are very popular
with Norwegians of all backgrounds and ages, and your
presidency has boosted U.S. popularity among the younger
generations: Fulbright applications from Norway increased
this year by 30 percent. Prime Minister Stoltenberg holds
you in high regard and very much looks forward to your visit.
He also told me he is eager to visit you in the White House.
The Prime Minister recently published a book entitled
""Conversations"" on discussions with his father, Thorvald
Stoltenberg, who is a well-regarded Norwegian Labor party
politician and former foreign minister.

--------------
Foreign Policy
--------------

3. (S) The Nobel Peace Prize shines an exclusive spotlight
for a few moments each year on this country of mountains,
fjords, and vast quantities of natural resources.
Ultimately, awarding you the Prize is the Norwegian Nobel
Committee's way of welcoming your presence on the world
stage. The Prize demonstrates their approval of your goal to
free the world from nuclear weapons, your commitment to
reversing global climate change, your promotion of dialogue
and multilateral engagement to achieve foreign policy goals,
including sustainable economic growth in developing nations,
and even your desire to bring universal health care to
Americans. Norway's Foreign Minister Stoere returned from
the UN General Assembly (UNGA) enthusiastic about your
ambitions and goals, and determined to hitch Norway's bold
international agenda to your cart. Ministry of Foreign
Affairs officials regularly tell my staff that your speeches
in Cairo, at the United Nations Security Council's Special
Session on Disarmament, and your UNGA speech were ""music to
their ears."" They view your presidency as having the
capacity and global influence to achieve the goals that
Norway has historically sought to achieve. They want to help
you and the United States succeed in your ambitious global
agenda. Your visit presents an opportunity to thank the
Norwegians publicly for their steadfast support and,
privately, to lay out any specific requests for how they
might do more, whether on Afghanistan, Iran, the Middle East,
or elsewhere.

4. (S) Many of Norway's international goals mesh neatly with
several of your own. During my initial meeting with Prime
Minister Stoltenberg on November 27, it was clear that he is
eager to highlight U.S.- Norwegian bilateral cooperation
during your visit. Stoltenberg formed his third cabinet in
October, and his Labor Party has a strong grip on government,
with his two other much smaller coalition partners weakened
by poor showings in September 2009 national elections. In
particular, Stoltenberg seeks our global cooperation on
maternal and child health (safe birth), carbon capture and
storage, and deforestation. Stoltenberg is personally

OSLO 00000739 002.2 OF 003

committed to addressing climate change. The Norwegian
population shares the Norwegian government's efforts to
protect the environment, as reflected in the past awarding of
the Nobel Peace Prize to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change and to former Vice-president Al Gore in 2007.
Norway has been active in COP-15 preparatory meetings, and
maintains that developed countries should take on quantified
emissions reduction commitments while developing countries
should receive technological and financial support. Norway
is investing heavily in carbon capture and storage technology
in hopes that it will play a significant role in emissions
reductions, and is a partner in the U.S.-led Carbon
Sequestration Leadership Forum. Norway also works closely
with us in the Arctic Council, where we co-chair a task force
on search and rescue capacity to support increased shipping
traffic in the Arctic as the polar ice melts.

----------------------
Energy and the Economy
----------------------

5. (S) While Norwegians pride themselves on their climate
change policy and maintain one of the cleanest oil and gas
production systems in the world, they understand the paradox
their efforts represent, given that Norway's wealth comes
mostly from the oil and gas industry. Indeed, energy is at
the heart of the U.S. - Norway economic relationship, with
nearly 70% of Norway's total exports to the U.S. coming from
crude oil and petroleum products, and with about 60% of U.S.
direct investment in Norway in the offshore petroleum sector.
Norway, as the world's fifth largest exporter of oil and
third largest exporter of natural gas, plays a key
stabilizing role in global energy markets and in Europe's
energy security. Norway serves as a reliable counter-weight
to Russia's decidedly mixed record on energy security.
Norwegians are also keen to emphasize indicators other than
the oil and gas industry that demonstrate their economic
success. For example, they are the second largest exporter
of seafood after China, and their maritime shipping industry
is the fifth largest in world.
--------------------------------
Russia and the Arctic High North
--------------------------------

6. (S) Russia is a significant bilateral partner for Norway,
particularly in one area cited time and again by Norwegian
officials as Norway's top foreign and defense priority: the
Arctic High North. Norway and Russia share a significant
land frontier and a vast maritime border at the top of the
world, but their proximity has never led to outright
conflict, although they did sit on opposing sides during the
Cold War. Norway welcomes your efforts to reset the U.S.-
Russia relationship. Norwegian officials regularly point out
the deep historical and cultural ties between the indigenous
Sami people of the Barents region, Norwegian partnership with
Russia in that country's Shtokman gas field project, and the
highly successful fisheries resource cooperation as evidence
of their productive bilateral relationship. Norway has never
been invaded by Russia, and in fact, Russian forces liberated
northern Norway from Nazi occupation. However, regardless of
the publicly touted excellent relationship, Norway maintains
wary eyes on its large neighbor. Norway is one of our most
reliable partners in gathering and sharing intelligence on
Russian activities, a highly important element of our
relationship that necessarily has to stay out of the public
spotlight. Norway also works quietly to counter-balance
Russia's growing influence and adventurism by increasing
international engagement in, and attention to, the Arctic
High North. On security matters, Norway is lobbying for
NATO's new Strategic Concept to balance NATO's current focus
on ""out of area"" operations with improved coordination and
capacity to protect NATO homeland territory. Norway is also
looking to redefine NATO's position in regards to nuclear
deterrence, and Stoltenberg told me he is looking forward to
participating your April 2010 Nuclear Security Summit.

--------------------
NATO and Afghanistan
--------------------

7. (S) Norway is a steadfast NATO ally, demonstrated through
polling data that regularly shows Norway to have one of the
highest levels of domestic support for the alliance.
Stoltenberg has said that Norway will remain in Afghanistan
as long as NATO remains, and there is minimal public pressure
for Norway to withdraw its forces. Indeed, polling shows
steady Norwegian public in support for Norway's role in
Afghanistan. Norway's contribution of about 500 troops to
Afghanistan is significant given the country's population and
- taken together with Norway's deployments to the EU

OSLO 00000739 003.2 OF 003

counter-piracy mission and the UN field hospital in Chad -
represents almost all of the country's deployable forces.
Stoltenberg's Foreign Ministry emphasizes Norway's civilian
contributions to Afghanistan: it provides about $130 million
per year in assistance, including support to international
trust funds for the Afghan military and police forces.

----
Iran
----

8. (S) Norway is committed to a negotiated settlement to the
standoff over Iran's nuclear program and is a strong
supporter of P5 1 positions, including both political
pressure and additional sanctions. Norway's MFA has
indicated that new sanctions on Iran adopted by the UN or the
EU would be the easiest and quickest for them to enact, since
such sanctions would not require complex legal procedures in
their system. Stoltenberg's government sees Iran's failure
to be transparent as negatively affecting Norway's own global
disarmament and nonproliferation goals. Norway's state-owned
oil company, Statoil, has investments in Iran's energy sector
but is scaling back in-country operations and has committed
to making no new investments there.

----------------------
Mid-East Peace Process
----------------------

9. (S) During the Oslo Peace Process of the 1990s, Norway
hosted Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, and the Nobel
Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1994 to Yasser
Arafat, Shimon Peres, and Yitzhak Rabin. Tragically, Rabin
was assassinated a year later by a figure opposed to his
peace overtures. Subsequently, Norway has played a
diminishing, often independent, and sometimes unhelpful role
in the Middle East. Norway strongly believes it should
engage everyone, including Hamas, which it has not designated
as a terrorist organization, unlike the United States and the
European Union. In a break with the international Quartet,
Norway recognized the Hamas-Fatah Unity Government in 2007.
Norway more helpfully serves as a highly effective Co-Chair
of the Ad-Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC), the main
international donor group for coordinating economic
assistance to the Palestinian Authority, and works to keep
AHLC activities in concert with the political track of
negotiations led by the U.S. Norway's relations with Israel
have been strained in recent years due to its contact with
Hamas, Norwegian disapproval of Israeli actions during the
fighting in Gaza last winter, and periodic, privately-led
boycott campaigns against Israeli businesses and
universities. The Norwegian Government fully supports your
intensive efforts to restart direct Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations. Norwegian and Israeli officials told us this
fall that Norway has now initiated steps to improve the
bilateral relationship with Israel, including through
scientific or other exchanges and other activities. In early
November, the government publicly condemned a private effort
at a university in Trondheim to boycott Israeli academics,
defining the effort as contrary to academic freedom. The
university's board ultimately unanimously rejected the
boycott proposal a few days later on November 12.

--------------------
Guantanamo Detainees
--------------------

10. (S) The Norwegian government has so far declined to
resettle detainees from Guantanamo (GTMO) in Norway, due to a
combination of domestic politics, lack of security
service/surveillance resources, and weak anti-terrorism laws.
Although the outlook is not favorable, the Norwegians have
not closed the door completely. Despite publicly calling
resettlement of GTMO detainees ""purely a U.S.
responsibility,"" Stoltenberg's Foreign Minister Stoere has
privately told me and Secretary Clinton that he would prefer
to talk quietly with us on this issue, out of the media
spotlight.
WHITE

© Scoop Media