Cablegate: Educating Zimbabwe's Next Generation

VZCZCXRO9150
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHSB #0877/01 3081904
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 041904Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5108
INFO RUEHJO/AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG 0577
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000877

SIPDIS

DEPT CA/VO/P AND CA/FPP FOR M. LEDESMA-LEESE
DEPT CA/EX FOR R. BOETTCHER
DEPT AF/S FOR B. WALCH
DEPT ECA/A/S/A FOR C. DANZ AND D. YOUNG
DEPT AF/PD FOR BRUCE WHARTON
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO KCC
JOHANNESBURG FOR RCO KENT MAY

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CMGT CVIS OEXC KFRD KPAO ZI
SUBJECT: EDUCATING ZIMBABWE'S NEXT GENERATION

REF: STATE 017314

HARARE 00000877 001.2 OF 002

1. SUMMARY: In a conscious decision to effect change through the
education of Zimbabwe's next generation of leaders, Mission Zimbabwe
actively seeks the country's best and brightest for study in the
U.S. In the past ten years the number of Zimbabweans studying in
the U.S. has grown from approximately 500 to over 1,500. In a
just-completed student visa validation study, Post discovered that
overall, 93 percent of student visa recipients remained enrolled and
in "good status" a year following their visa issuance, while 100
percent of those sampled that were enrolled in the Embassy's
EducationUSA Advising Center (EAC) were found in good status. END
SUMMARY.

----------------------
PAS - Consular Synergy
----------------------

2. The U.S. Embassy Public Affairs Section's EducationUSA Advising
Center (EAC) provides comprehensive services to serious Zimbabwean
students seeking to further their education in the U.S. The EAC is
a membership-based center that works closely and personally with
prospective students to ensure they are successful in identifying
appropriate colleges and universities, completing the application
requirements for those universities, and financing their education.
In a robust program that includes seminars, presentations, a review
of academic achievement, and individual counseling, the EAC screens
prospective students to admit only those whose academic
qualifications and desires meet the goals of the program. In FY
2009, the EAC responded to over 30,000 requests for information,
which led to 346 new students enrolled in the program. In
appreciation of the portal the EAC provides for outreach to the
Zimbabwe student population, consular officers participate in
numerous EAC sponsored events, such as student visa seminars,
college fairs, and presentations at local universities. In return,
the EAC benefits from direct consular participation and its students
come prepared for their visa interviews.

-----------------------------------
Validation Methodology and Findings
-----------------------------------

3. In FY 2009, Harare had 592 student applications, which
represented 13 percent of Post's non-immigrant visa (NIV) workload.
Among the 592 applications, 327 were approved, resulting in an
overall approval rate of 55 percent. Of note, 160 of the 592 total
applications were from EAC students (27 percent of the total).
However, these same 160 were also among the 327 approved visas,
comprising 49 percent of the approvals. The EAC did not have a
single refusal in FY 2009.

4. June through December represent Post's busiest student visa
workload. In CY 2008, 258 F1 visas were issued during this period,
which defined the total population of the validation. (NOTE: Among
these 258 approvals, 127 were enrolled in the EAC, about half. END
NOTE.) We used a Chi Square distribution to determine the true
standard deviation (with a 95 percent confidence level), assumed a
variation of 0.7, and chose a 0.05 precision factor. This resulted
in a required sample size of 135. We then used a random generator
to select 135 applicants from the total population of 258 for
verification through the Student and Exchange Visitor Information
System (SEVIS), DHS' Arrival Departure Information System (ADIS),
and direct contact with school registrars.
Qand direct contact with school registrars.

5. Of the 135 cases verified, 126 were found to be enrolled in
school and in good status a year after arriving in the U.S. This
resulted in a 93 percent validation rate. Of the 9 negative
verifications, 3 never showed-up (enrolled) at school and 6
dropped-out within a year of arriving. Of the 9, only 1 has a
record of departing PH9cations
have a departure record in ADIS and are presumed to be residing in
the U.S. Post has entered P6G (Quasi-Student Visa Abuser) lookouts
for each.

6. Not surprising, students who applied after being enrolled in the
EAC did very well during their visa interview. Of the 127 EAC
applicants who applied during the validation period, all were issued
visas. Further, none of the negative validations were EAC students.
In general, EAC students have outstanding academic records, applied

HARARE 00000877 002.2 OF 002

to prestigious colleges and universities, and obtained qualifying
funding. Additionally, many excelled on their SATs and garnered
prestigious scholarships. In short, the EAC screens its applicant
pool for academic intent and potential, while only enrolling those
who have a serious chance of succeeding at a U.S. university. By
the time these students arrive for their interview, they "jump out"
as highly qualified.

---------------------------
Residence Abroad and 214(b)
---------------------------

7. As is the case in other impoverished countries with limited
opportunity for professionals, judging residence abroad and a
student's intent to return following a course of study are often
challenging tasks for adjudicators in Harare. While it is natural
for students not to possess ties of property, employment, family
obligation, or continuity of life that are typical of B visa
applicants, a cynic could also argue that the economic and political
reality in Zimbabwe makes it unlikely for any Zimbabwe student to
return. In judging the residence abroad requirement for Zimbabwe
students, Post has adopted a broad interpretation of the statute
which dwells on a student's immediate intent. Officers are
instructed to judge immediate intent based on a student's desire to
complete a course of study in the U.S. and return, or remain in
legal status. Acknowledging Post's reliance on accurately judging a
student's immediate intent, it is useful to compute validation
results that omit EAC students. After all, before their visa
interview, EAC students have already been screened and selected for
the program based on their intent.

8. If we subtract EAC students from both the total and sample
populations for the validation study outlined above, Post issued 131
visas to students "at large" that were judged to have the immediate
intent of successfully pursuing a course of study in the U.S. From
this total population, post sampled 62 "at large" student approvals.
Among these 62 "at large" approvals, 9 were found to be "out of
status" a year after visa approval, resulting in an adjudication
validation rate of only 85 percent, significantly below the overall
93 percent that included EAC students. As a result of this study,
Post has identified "at large" student visa adjudications as an
emphasis item for continuation training, and has pulled the files
for the 9 known cases in search of common characteristics.
Interestingly, 4 of the 9 applicants were previous student visa
holders (renewing their visas), and 2 of the 6 no shows were
enrolled at major universities.

-----------
Conclusions
-----------

9. With a 95 percent confidence factor, 93 percent of our overall
student visa approvals between Jun-Dec 2008 were correct in
determining immediate student intent, assuming a margin of error of
5 percent.

10. When subtracting students enrolled in the Embassy's EAC, only
85 percent of the "at large" student visa approvals between Jun-Dec
2008 were correct in determining immediate student intent.

11. Post has identified "at large" student visa adjudications as an
emphasis item for weekly continuation training.

RAY

© Scoop Media